Ensemble Kalman filter updates based on regularized sparse inverse Cholesky factors
Abstract The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a popular technique for data assimilation in high-dimensional nonlinear state-space models. The EnKF represents distributions of interest by an ensemble, which is a form of dimension reduction that enables straightforward forecasting even for complicated and expensive evolution operators. However, the EnKF update step involves estimation of the forecast covariance matrix based on the (often small) ensemble, which requires regularization. Many existing regularization techniques rely on spatial localization, which may ignore long-range dependence. Instead, our proposed approach assumes a sparse Cholesky factor of the inverse covariance matrix, and the nonzero Cholesky entries are further regularized. The resulting method is highly flexible and computationally scalable. In our numerical experiments, our approach was more accurate and less sensitive to misspecification of tuning parameters than tapering-based localization.
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NSF-PAR ID:
10277276
Journal Name:
Monthly Weather Review
ISSN:
0027-0644
2. Abstract Covariance matrices are fundamental to the analysis and forecast of economic, physical and biological systems. Although the eigenvalues $\{\lambda _i\}$ and eigenvectors $\{\boldsymbol{u}_i\}$ of a covariance matrix are central to such endeavours, in practice one must inevitably approximate the covariance matrix based on data with finite sample size $n$ to obtain empirical eigenvalues $\{\tilde{\lambda }_i\}$ and eigenvectors $\{\tilde{\boldsymbol{u}}_i\}$, and therefore understanding the error so introduced is of central importance. We analyse eigenvector error $\|\boldsymbol{u}_i - \tilde{\boldsymbol{u}}_i \|^2$ while leveraging the assumption that the true covariance matrix having size $p$ is drawn from a matrix ensemble with known spectral properties—particularly,more »