The drag due to breaking atmospheric gravity waves plays a leading order role in driving the middle atmosphere circulation, but as their horizontal wavelength range from tens to thousands of kilometers, part of their spectrum must be parameterized in climate models. Gravity wave parameterizations prescribe a source spectrum of waves in the lower atmosphere and allow these to propagate upwards until they either dissipate or break, where they deposit drag on the large‐scale flow. These parameterizations are a source of uncertainty in climate modeling which is generally not quantified. Here, we explore the uncertainty associated with a non‐orographic gravity wave parameterization given an assumed parameterization structure within a global climate model of intermediate complexity, using the Calibrate, Emulate and Sample (CES) method. We first calibrate the uncertain parameters that define the gravity wave source spectrum in the tropics, to obtain climate model settings that are consistent with properties of the primary mode of tropical stratospheric variability, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Then we use a Gaussian process emulator to sample the calibrated distribution of parameters and quantify the uncertainty of these parameter choices. We find that the resulting parametric uncertainties on the QBO period and amplitude are of a similar magnitude to the internal variability under a 2xCO2forcing.
Tropical gravity waves that are generated by convection are generally too small in scale and too high in frequency to be resolved in global climate models, yet their drag forces drive the important global‐scale quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere, and models rely on parameterizations of gravity wave drag to simulate the QBO. We compare detailed properties of tropical parameterized gravity waves in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) with gravity waves observed by long‐duration superpressure balloons and also compare properties of parameterized convective latent heating with satellite data. Similarities and differences suggest that the WACCM6 parameterizations are excellent tools for representing tropical gravity waves, but the results also suggest detailed changes to the gravity wave parameterization tuning parameter assumptions that would bring the parameterized waves into much better agreement with observations. While WACCM6 currently includes only nonstationary gravity waves from convection, adding gravity waves generated by the steady component of the heating that are stationary relative to moving convective rain cells is likely to improve the simulation of the QBO in the model. The suggested changes have the potential to alleviate common biases in simulated QBO circulations in models.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1829373
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10448197
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 126
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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