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1. Possible future scenarios for two major Arctic Gateways connecting Subarctic and Arctic marine systems: I. Climate and physical–chemical oceanography

   https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab182  

   Drinkwater, Kenneth F. ; Harada, Naomi ; Nishino, Shigeto ; Chierici, Melissa ; Danielson, Seth L. ; Ingvaldsen, Randi B. ; Kristiansen, Trond ; Hunt, Jr, George L. ; Mueter, Franz ; Stiansen, Jan Erik ; et al ( October 2021 , ICES Journal of Marine Science)

   We review recent trends and projected future physical and chemical changes under climate change in transition zones between Arctic and Subarctic regions with a focus on the two major inflow gateways to the Arctic, one in the Pacific (i.e. Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and the Chukchi Sea) and the other in the Atlantic (i.e. Fram Strait and the Barents Sea). Sea-ice coverage in the gateways has been disappearing during the last few decades. Projected higher air and sea temperatures in these gateways in the future will further reduce sea ice, and cause its later formation and earlier retreat. Anmore »intensification of the hydrological cycle will result in less snow, more rain, and increased river runoff. Ocean temperatures are projected to increase, leading to higher heat fluxes through the gateways. Increased upwelling at the Arctic continental shelf is expected as sea ice retreats. The pH of the water will decline as more atmospheric CO2 is absorbed. Long-term surface nutrient levels in the gateways will likely decrease due to increased stratification and reduced vertical mixing. Some effects of these environmental changes on humans in Arctic coastal communities are also presented.

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2. Labrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21470-3  

   Zhang, Jiaxu ; Weijer, Wilbert ; Steele, Michael ; Cheng, Wei ; Verma, Tarun ; Veneziani, Milena ( February 2021 , Nature Communications)

   The Beaufort Gyre (BG), the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has drastically increased its liquid freshwater content by 40% in the past two decades. If released within a short period, the excess freshwater could potentially impact the large-scale ocean circulation by freshening the upper subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we track BG-sourced freshwater using passive tracers in a global ocean sea-ice model and show that this freshwater exited the Arctic mostly through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, rather than Fram Strait, during an historical release event in 1983–1995. The Labrador Sea is the most affected region in the subpolar North Atlantic,more »with a freshening of 0.2 psu on the western shelves and 0.4 psu in the Labrador Current. Given that the present BG freshwater content anomaly is twice the historical analog studied here, the impact of a future rapid release on Labrador Sea salinity could be significant, easily exceeding similar fluxes from Greenland meltwater.

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3. Arctic Mediterranean exchanges: a consistent volume budget and trends in transports from two decades of observations

   https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-379-2019  

   Østerhus, Svein ; Woodgate, Rebecca ; Valdimarsson, Héðinn ; Turrell, Bill ; de Steur, Laura ; Quadfasel, Detlef ; Olsen, Steffen M. ; Moritz, Martin ; Lee, Craig M. ; Larsen, Karin Margretha ; et al ( January 2019 , Ocean Science)

   Abstract. The Arctic Mediterranean (AM) is the collective name forthe Arctic Ocean, the Nordic Seas, and their adjacent shelf seas. Water enters into thisregion through the Bering Strait (Pacific inflow) and through the passages across theGreenland–Scotland Ridge (Atlantic inflow) and is modified within the AM. The modifiedwaters leave the AM in several flow branches which are grouped into two differentcategories: (1) overflow of dense water through the deep passages across theGreenland–Scotland Ridge, and (2) outflow of light water – here termed surface outflow– on both sides of Greenland. These exchanges transport heat and salt into and out ofthe AM and are importantmore »for conditions in the AM. They are also part of the global oceancirculation and climate system. Attempts to quantify the transports by various methodshave been made for many years, but only recently the observational coverage has becomesufficiently complete to allow an integrated assessment of the AM exchanges based solelyon observations. In this study, we focus on the transport of water and have collecteddata on volume transport for as many AM-exchange branches as possible between 1993 and2015. The total AM import (oceanic inflows plusfreshwater) is found to be 9.1 Sv (sverdrup,1 Sv =10⁶ m³ s⁻¹) with an estimated uncertainty of 0.7 Sv and hasthe amplitude of the seasonal variation close to 1 Sv and maximum import in October.Roughly one-third of the imported water leaves the AM as surface outflow with theremaining two-thirds leaving as overflow. The overflow water is mainly produced frommodified Atlantic inflow and around 70 % of the total Atlantic inflow is convertedinto overflow, indicating a strong coupling between these two exchanges. The surfaceoutflow is fed from the Pacific inflow and freshwater (runoff and precipitation), but isstill approximately two-thirds of modified Atlantic water. For the inflowbranches and the two main overflow branches (Denmark Strait and Faroe Bank Channel),systematic monitoring of volume transport has been established since the mid-1990s, andthis enables us to estimate trends for the AM exchanges as a whole. At the 95 %confidence level, only the inflow of Pacific water through the Bering Strait showed astatistically significant trend, which was positive. Both the total AM inflow and thecombined transport of the two main overflow branches also showed trends consistent withstrengthening, but they were not statistically significant. They do suggest, however,that any significant weakening of these flows during the last two decades is unlikely andthe overall message is that the AM exchanges remained remarkably stable in the periodfrom the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s. The overflows are the densest source water for thedeep limb of the North Atlantic part of the meridional overturning circulation (AMOC),and this conclusion argues that the reported weakening of the AMOC was not due tooverflow weakening or reduced overturning in the AM. Although the combined data set hasmade it possible to establish a consistent budget for the AM exchanges, the observationalcoverage for some of the branches is limited, which introduces considerable uncertainty.This lack of coverage is especially extreme for the surface outflow through the DenmarkStrait, the overflow across the Iceland–Faroe Ridge, and the inflow over the Scottishshelf. We recommend that more effort is put into observing these flows as well asmaintaining the monitoring systems established for the other exchange branches.

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4. A New Norm for Seasonal Sea Ice Advance Predictability in the Chukchi Sea: Rising Influence of Ocean Heat Advection

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0425.1  

   Nakanowatari, Takuya ; Inoue, Jun ; Zhang, Jinlun ; Watanabe, Eiji ; Kuroda, Hiroshi ( May 2022 , Journal of Climate)

   Abstract Predictability of seasonal sea ice advance in the Chukchi Sea has been investigated in the context of ocean heat transport from the Bering Strait; however, the underlying physical processes have yet to be fully clarified. Using the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reanalysis product (1979–2016), we examined seasonal predictability of sea ice advance in early winter (November–December) and its source using canonical correlation analysis. It was found that 2-month leading (September–October) surface heat flux and ocean heat advection is the major predictor for interannual variability of sea ice advance. Surface heat flux is related to the atmosphericmore »cooling process, which has influenced sea ice area in the southeastern Chukchi Sea particularly in the 1980s and 1990s. Anomalous surface heat flux is induced by strong northeasterly winds related to the east Pacific/North Pacific teleconnection pattern. Ocean heat advection, which is related to fluctuation of volume transport in the Bering Strait, leads to decrease in the sea ice area in the northwestern Chukchi Sea. Diagnostic analysis revealed that interannual variability of the Bering Strait volume transport is governed by arrested topographic waves (ATWs) forced by southeasterly wind stress along the shelf of the East Siberian Sea. The contribution of ocean heat flux to sea ice advance has increased since the 2000s; therefore, it is suggested that the major factor influencing interannual variability of sea ice advance in early winter has shifted from atmospheric cooling to ocean heat advection processes. Significance Statement Predictability of sea ice advance in the marginal Arctic seas in early winter is a crucial issue regarding future projections of the midlatitude winter climate and marine ecosystem. This study examined seasonal predictability of sea ice advance in the Chukchi Sea in early winter using a statistical technique and historical model simulation data. We identified that atmospheric cooling and ocean heat transport are the two main predictors of sea ice advance, and that the impact of the latter has become amplified since the 2000s. Our new finding suggests that the precise information on wind-driven ocean currents and temperatures is crucial for the skillful prediction of interannual variability of sea ice advance under present and future climatic regimes.« less
5. Coastal sources, sinks and strong organic complexation of dissolved cobalt within the US North Atlantic GEOTRACES transect GA03

   https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2715-2017  

   Noble, Abigail E. ; Ohnemus, Daniel C. ; Hawco, Nicholas J. ; Lam, Phoebe J. ; Saito, Mak A. ( January 2017 , Biogeosciences)

   Abstract. Cobalt is the scarcest of metallic micronutrients and displays a complex biogeochemical cycle. This study examines the distribution, chemical speciation, and biogeochemistry of dissolved cobalt during the US North Atlantic GEOTRACES transect expeditions (GA03/3_e), which took place in the fall of 2010 and 2011. Two major subsurface sources of cobalt to the North Atlantic were identified. The more prominent of the two was a large plume of cobalt emanating from the African coast off the eastern tropical North Atlantic coincident with the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) likely due to reductive dissolution, biouptake and remineralization, and aeolian dust deposition. Themore »occurrence of this plume in an OMZ with oxygen above suboxic levels implies a high threshold for persistence of dissolved cobalt plumes. The other major subsurface source came from Upper Labrador Seawater, which may carry high cobalt concentrations due to the interaction of this water mass with resuspended sediment at the western margin or from transport further upstream. Minor sources of cobalt came from dust, coastal surface waters and hydrothermal systems along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The full depth section of cobalt chemical speciation revealed near-complete complexation in surface waters, even within regions of high dust deposition. However, labile cobalt observed below the euphotic zone demonstrated that strong cobalt-binding ligands were not present in excess of the total cobalt concentration there, implying that mesopelagic labile cobalt was sourced from the remineralization of sinking organic matter. In the upper water column, correlations were observed between total cobalt and phosphate, and between labile cobalt and phosphate, demonstrating a strong biological influence on cobalt cycling. Along the western margin off the North American coast, this correlation with phosphate was no longer observed and instead a relationship between cobalt and salinity was observed, reflecting the importance of coastal input processes on cobalt distributions. In deep waters, both total and labile cobalt concentrations were lower than in intermediate depth waters, demonstrating that scavenging may remove labile cobalt from the water column. Total and labile cobalt distributions were also compared to a previously published South Atlantic GEOTRACES-compliant zonal transect (CoFeMUG, GAc01) to discern regional biogeochemical differences. Together, these Atlantic sectional studies highlight the dynamic ecological stoichiometry of total and labile cobalt. As increasing anthropogenic use and subsequent release of cobalt poses the potential to overpower natural cobalt signals in the oceans, it is more important than ever to establish a baseline understanding of cobalt distributions in the ocean.

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