The Mekong River Basin (MRB) is undergoing unprecedented changes due to the recent acceleration in large-scale dam construction. While the hydrology of the MRB is well understood and the effects of some of the existing dams have been studied, the potential effects of the planned dams on flood pulse dynamics over the entire Lower Mekong remains unexamined. Here, using hydrodynamic model simulations, we show that the effects of flow regulation on downstream river-floodplain dynamics are relatively predictable along the mainstream Mekong, but flow regulations could potentially disrupt the flood dynamics in the Tonle Sap River (TSR) and small distributaries in the Mekong Delta. Results suggest that TSR flow reversal could cease if the Mekong flood pulse is dampened by 50% and delayed by one-month. While flood occurrence in the vicinity of the Tonle Sap Lake and middle reach of the delta could increase due to enhanced low flow, it could decrease by up to five months in other areas due to dampened high flow, particularly during dry years. Further, areas flooded for less than five months and over six months are likely to be impacted significantly by flow regulations, but those flooded for 5–6 months could be impacted the least.
Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia is arguably the world's most productive freshwater ecosystems, as well as the dominant source of animal protein for the country. The rapid rise of hydropower schemes, deforestation, land development and climate change impacts in the Mekong River Basin, however, now represent serious concerns in regard to Tonle Sap Lake's ecological health and its role in future food security. To this end, the present study identifies significant recent warming of lake temperature and discusses how each of these anthropogenic perturbations in Tonle Sap's floodplain and the Mekong River Basin may be influencing this trend. The lake's dry season monthly average temperature increased by 0.03°C/year between 1988 and 2018, being largely in synchrony with warming trends of the local air temperature and upstream rivers. The impacts of deforestation and agriculture development in the lake's floodplain also exhibited a high correlation with an increased number of warm days observed in the lake, particularly in its southeast region (agriculture
- Award ID(s):
- 1740042
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10457493
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Lakes & Reservoirs: Science, Policy and Management for Sustainable Use
- Volume:
- 25
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 1320-5331
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 133-142
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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