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COVID-19 has seriously threatened people’s health and well-being across the globe since it was first reported in Wuhan, China in late 2019. This study investigates the mechanism of COVID-19 transmission in different periods within and between cities in China to better understand the nature of the outbreak. We use Moran’s I, a measure of spatial autocorrelation, to examine the spatial dependency of COVID-19 and a dynamic spatial autoregressive model to explore the transmission mechanism. We find that the spatial dependency of COVID-19 decreased over time and that the transmission of the disease could be divided into three distinct stages: an eruption stage, a stabilization stage, and a declination stage. The infection rate between cities was close to one-third of the infection rate within cities at the eruption stage, while it reduced to zero at the declination stage. We also find that the infection rates within cities at the eruption stage and declination stage were similar. China’s policies for controlling the spread of the epidemic, specifically with respect to limiting inter-city mobility and implementing intra-city travel restrictions (social isolation), were most effective in reducing the viral transmission of COVID-19. The findings from this study indicate that the elimination of inter-city mobility had the largest impact on controlling disease transmission.
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Early pandemic COVID-19 case growth rates increase with city size
Abstract The current outbreak of COVID-19 poses an unprecedented global health and economic threat to interconnected human societies. Strategies for controlling the outbreak rely on social distancing and face covering measures which largely disconnect the social network fabric of cities. We demonstrate that early in the US outbreak, COVID-19 spread faster on average in larger cities and discuss the implications of these observations, emphasizing the need for faster responses to novel infectious diseases in larger cities.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1952050
- PAR ID:
- 10297046
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- npj Urban Sustainability
- Volume:
- 1
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2661-8001
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-021-00030-0
