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1. Combining uncertainty information with AI recommendations supports calibration with domain knowledge

   https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2023.2259406  

   Subramanian, Harishankar Vasudevanallur ; Canfield, Casey ; Shank, Daniel B ; Kinnison, Matthew ( October 2023 , Journal of Risk Research)

   The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) decision support is increasing in high-stakes contexts, such as healthcare, defense, and finance. Uncertainty information may help users better leverage AI predictions, especially when combined with their domain knowledge. We conducted a human-subject experiment with an online sample to examine the effects of presenting uncertainty information with AI recommendations. The experimental stimuli and task, which included identifying plant and animal images, are from an existing image recognition deep learning model, a popular approach to AI. The uncertainty information was predicted probabilities for whether each label was the true label. This information was presented numerically and visually. In the study, we tested the effect of AI recommendations in a within-subject comparison and uncertainty information in a between-subject comparison. The results suggest that AI recommendations increased both participants’ accuracy and confidence. Further, providing uncertainty information significantly increased accuracy but not confidence, suggesting that it may be effective for reducing overconfidence. In this task, participants tended to have higher domain knowledge for animals than plants based on a self-reported measure of domain knowledge. Participants with more domain knowledge were appropriately less confident when uncertainty information was provided. This suggests that people use AI and uncertainty information differently, such as an expert versus second opinion, depending on their level of domain knowledge. These results suggest that if presented appropriately, uncertainty information can potentially decrease overconfidence that is induced by using AI recommendations. 

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2. Expert-Informed, User-Centric Explanations for Machine Learning

   Michael Pazzani and Severine Soltani, Robert Kaufman ( January 2022 , Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   We argue that the dominant approach to explainable AI for explaining image classification, annotating images with heatmaps, provides little value for users unfamiliar with deep learning. We argue that explainable AI for images should produce output like experts produce when communicating with one another, with apprentices, and with novices. We provide an expanded set of goals of explainable AI systems and propose a Turing Test for explainable AI. 

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3. An Uncertainty Estimation Framework for Risk Assessment in Deep Learning-based Atrial Fibrillation Classification

   Belen, James ; Mousavi, Sajad ; Shamsoshoara, Alireza ; Afghah, Fatemeh ( January 2020 , IEEE Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems, and Computers)

   null (Ed.)

   Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is among one of the most common types of heart arrhythmia afflicting more than 3 million people in the U.S. alone. AF is estimated to be the cause of death of 1 in 4 individuals. Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms have led to the capability of reliably detecting AF from ECG signals. While these algorithms can accurately detect AF with high precision, the discrete and deterministic classifications mean that these networks are likely to erroneously classify the given ECG signal. This paper proposes a variational autoencoder classifier network that provides an uncertainty estimation of the network's output in addition to reliable classification accuracy. This framework can increase physicians' trust in using AI-based AF detection algorithms by providing them with a confidence score which reflects how uncertain the algorithm is about a case and recommending them to put more attention to the cases with a lower confidence score. The uncertainty is estimated by conducting multiple passes of the input through the network to build a distribution; the mean of the standard deviations is reported as the network's uncertainty. Our proposed network obtains 97.64% accuracy in addition to reporting the uncertainty. 

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4. Deep Probabilistic Imaging: Uncertainty Quantification and Multi-modal Solution Characterization for Computational Imaging

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v35i3.16366  

   Sun, He ; Bouman, Katherine L. ( May 2021 , Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   Computational image reconstruction algorithms generally produce a single image without any measure of uncertainty or confidence. Regularized Maximum Likelihood (RML) and feed-forward deep learning approaches for inverse problems typically focus on recovering a point estimate. This is a serious limitation when working with under-determined imaging systems, where it is conceivable that multiple image modes would be consistent with the measured data. Characterizing the space of probable images that explain the observational data is therefore crucial. In this paper, we propose a variational deep probabilistic imaging approach to quantify reconstruction uncertainty. Deep Probabilistic Imaging (DPI) employs an untrained deep generative model to estimate a posterior distribution of an unobserved image. This approach does not require any training data; instead, it optimizes the weights of a neural network to generate image samples that fit a particular measurement dataset. Once the network weights have been learned, the posterior distribution can be efficiently sampled. We demonstrate this approach in the context of interferometric radio imaging, which is used for black hole imaging with the Event Horizon Telescope, and compressed sensing Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). 

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5. Bayesian modeling of human–AI complementarity

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111547119  

   Steyvers, Mark ; Tejeda, Heliodoro ; Kerrigan, Gavin ; Smyth, Padhraic ( March 2022 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning models are being increasingly deployed in real-world applications. In many of these applications, there is strong motivation to develop hybrid systems in which humans and AI algorithms can work together, leveraging their complementary strengths and weaknesses. We develop a Bayesian framework for combining the predictions and different types of confidence scores from humans and machines. The framework allows us to investigate the factors that influence complementarity, where a hybrid combination of human and machine predictions leads to better performance than combinations of human or machine predictions alone. We apply this framework to a large-scale dataset where humans and a variety of convolutional neural networks perform the same challenging image classification task. We show empirically and theoretically that complementarity can be achieved even if the human and machine classifiers perform at different accuracy levels as long as these accuracy differences fall within a bound determined by the latent correlation between human and machine classifier confidence scores. In addition, we demonstrate that hybrid human–machine performance can be improved by differentiating between the errors that humans and machine classifiers make across different class labels. Finally, our results show that eliciting and including human confidence ratings improve hybrid performance in the Bayesian combination model. Our approach is applicable to a wide variety of classification problems involving human and machine algorithms. 

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