skip to main content


Title: Analyzing Target-Based Cryptocurrency Pump and Dump Schemes
As the number of cryptocurrencies has exploded in recent years, so too has the fraud. One popular strategy is when actors promote coordinated purchases of coins in hopes of temporarily driving up prices. Prior work investigating such pump and dump schemes has focused on the immediate impact to prices following pump signals, which were largely interpreted as following the same strategy. The reality, as with most cybercrimes, is that the operators of the schemes try out a much more heterogeneous mix of tactics. From a population of 12,252 pump signals observed between July 2017 and January 2019, we identify and examine 3,683 so-called target-based pump signals that announce promoted coins alongside buy and sell targets, but without a coordinated purchase time. We develop a strategy to measure the success of target pumps over longer time horizons. We find that around half of these pumps reach at least one of their sell targets, and that reaching their peak price often takes days, as opposed to the seconds or minutes required in pumps studied previously. We also examine the various groups promoting coins and present evidence that groups try a variety of distinct strategies and experience varying success. We find that the most successful groups promote many coins and issue many pumps, but not for the same coins. As decentralized finance becomes more popular, a deeper understanding of price manipulation techniques like target pumps is needed to combat fraud.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1714291
NSF-PAR ID:
10302256
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
DeFi '21: Proceedings of the 2021 ACM CCS Workshop on Decentralized Finance and Security
Page Range / eLocation ID:
21 to 27
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. The surge of interest in cryptocurrencies has been accompanied by a proliferation of fraud. This paper examines pump and dump schemes. The recent explosion of nearly 2,000 cryptocurrencies in an unregulated environment has expanded the scope for abuse. We quantify the scope of cryptocurrency pump and dump on Discord and Telegram, two popular group-messaging platforms.We joined all relevant Telegram and Discord groups/channels and identifiednearly 5,000 different pumps. Our findings provide the first measure of the scope of pumps and suggest that this phenomenon is widespread and prices often rise significantly. We also examine which factors affect the pump’s “success". 
    more » « less
  2. Landscapes of Rizq: Islam, Masculinity, and Speculative Real Estate in Lahore The city of Lahore, Pakistan has expanded by 20% in the past 20 years alone. Lahore’s exponential growth is fueled by a financialized real estate market that facilitates speculative trading of plots of land rather than constructed buildings. At the city’s ever-expanding periphery, real estate developers armed with drones and legal teams scout for cheap land while agricultural landowners collaborate to resist these efforts by refusing to sell or inflating prices. In WhatsApp groups, local and overseas Pakistani investors carefully monitor these events by sharing rumors, leaked documents, Google satellite images, and personal photos and videos in order to make their own assessments about the value of land. In the struggle to keep, buy, and sell land, several different approaches to placemaking collide—land as generational wealth; land as expansion of the modern city; land as entry to the middle class; and land as return to the homeland. Meanwhile, the financialization of land has taken a devastating toll on urban development, leading to the displacement of tenant farmers, unprecedented deforestation, and Lahore becoming the second most polluted city in the world. At the same time, speculative real estate in Lahore exists against the backdrop of Pakistan’s longstanding political and economic instability, which includes a largely unregulated economy, dramatic policy changes imposed by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Action Task Force, and unpredictable currency fluctuations during the 2020 pandemic. While real estate is the most popular form of financial activity in Lahore, it is also extraordinarily risky. Developers routinely sell land before they possess it even though acquisition attempts often fail and government planning permissions to convert agricultural land into urban land are not always received. Local and overseas Pakistanis regularly invest in land despite the long history of fraud and turmoil in the market. Based on 24 months of ethnographic fieldwork in Lahore with developers, investors and landowners, this paper analyzes how these actors navigate risk through the concept of rizq, or the Islamic belief that despite one’s best efforts, their material possessions are ultimately provided by God. I show how rizq and real estate constitute dual economies between which all debts are eventually settled. Attending to the role of masculinity in this male-dominated market, I also examine how rizq entangles with financialization through the male archetypes of the patron, the patriarch, and the adventurer. At the intersection of Islam, masculinity, and speculative real estate, I argue that rizq enables an audacious mode of speculation that has devastated the landscape of Lahore. This paper presentation will be pre-recorded and read over drone footage collected during fieldwork that highlights the speculative landscape of Lahore. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    Ambitious climate packages promote the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and electrification of the economy. For the power sector, such a transformation means the emergence of so-called prosumers, i.e., agents that both consume and produce electricity. Due to their inflexible VRE output and flexible demand, prosumers will potentially add endogenous net sales with seasonal patterns to the power system. With its vast hydro reservoirs and ample transmission capacity, the Nordic region is seemingly well positioned to cope with such intermittent VRE output. However, the increased requirement for flexibility may be leveraged by incumbent producers to manipulate prices. Via a Nash-Cournot model with a representation of the Nordic region’s spatio-temporal features and reservoir volumes, we examine how hydro producers’ ability to manipulate electricity prices through temporal arbitrage is affected by (i) VRE-enabled prosumers and (ii) the latter plus a high CO$$_2$$2price. We find that hydro reservoirs could exploit prosumers’ patterns of net sales to conduct temporal arbitrage more effectively, viz., by targeting periods in which prosumers are net buyers (net sellers) to withhold (to “dump”) water. Meanwhile, a higher CO$$_2$$2price would further enhance hydro reservoirs’ market power because flexible price-taking thermal plants would be unable to ramp up production in order to counter such producers’ strategy to target VRE’s intermittency. Hence, in spite of a flexible demand side to complement additional intermittent VRE output, strategic hydro producers may still exacerbate price manipulation in a future power sector via more tailored exercise of market power.

     
    more » « less
  4. Since Bitcoin’s introduction in 2009, interest in cryptocurrencies has soared. One manifestation of this interest has been the explosion of newly created coins. This paper examines the dynamics of coin creation, competition and destruction in the cryptocurrency industry. In order to conduct the analysis, we develop a methodology to identify peaks in prices and trade volume, as well as when coins are abandoned and subsequently “resurrected”. We study trading activity associated with 1 082 coins over a nearly five-year period. We present evidence that the more frequently traded coins experience the biggest price rises. They are also much less likely to be abandoned, that is, to experience a drop in average trading volume to below 1% of a prior peak value. Overall, we find that 44% of publicly-traded coins are abandoned, at least temporarily. 71% of abandoned coins are later resurrected, leaving 18% of coins to fail permanently. We then examine the association between entry and exit and other key variables such as price, volume, and market capitalization in order to analyze and provide intuition underpinning the fundamentals in this market. We conclude by examining the bursting of the Bitcoin bubble in December 2017. Unlike the end of the 2013 bubble, some alternative cryptocurrencies continue to flourish after the fall of Bitcoin. 
    more » « less
  5. null (Ed.)
    Since Bitcoin’s introduction in 2009, interest in cryptocurrencies has soared. One manifestation of this interest has been the explosion of newly created coins and tokens. In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of this burgeoning industry. We consider both cryptocurrency coins and tokens. The paper examines the dynamics of coin and token creation, competition and destruction in the cryptocurrency industry. In order to conduct the analysis, we develop a methodology to identify peaks in prices and trade volume, as well as when coins and tokens are abandoned and subsequently “resurrected”. We also study trading activity. Our data spans more than 4 years: there are 1082 coins and 725 tokens in the data. While there are some similarities between coins and tokens regarding dynamics, there are some striking differences as well. Overall, we find that 44% of publicly-traded coins are abandoned, at least temporarily. 71% of abandoned coins are later resurrected, leaving 18% of coins to fail permanently. Tokens experience abandonment less frequently, with only 7% abandonment and 5% permanent token abandonment at the end of the data. Using linear regressions, we find that market variables such as the bitcoin price are not associated with the rate of introducing new coins, though they are positively associated with issuing new tokens. We find that for both coins and tokens, market variables are positively associated with resurrection. We then examine the effect that the bursting of the Bitcoin bubble in December 2017 had on the dynamics in the industry. Unlike the end of the 2013 bubble, some alternative cryptocurrencies continue to flourish after the bursting of this bubble. 
    more » « less