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1. Disparate patterns of movements and visits to points of interest located in urban hotspots across US metropolitan cities during COVID-19

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201209  

   Li, Qingchun ; Bessell, Liam ; Xiao, Xin ; Fan, Chao ; Gao, Xinyu ; Mostafavi, Ali ( January 2021 , Royal Society Open Science)

   null (Ed.)

   We examined the effect of social distancing on changes in visits to urban hotspot points of interest. In a pandemic situation, urban hotspots could be potential superspreader areas as visits to urban hotspots can increase the risk of contact and transmission of a disease among a population. We mapped census-block-group to point-of-interest (POI) movement networks in 16 cities in the United States. We adopted a modified coarse-grain approach to examine patterns of visits to POIs among hotspots and non-hotspots from January to May 2020. Also, we conducted chi-square tests to identify POIs with significant flux-in changes during the analysis period. The results showed disparate patterns across cities in terms of reduction in hotspot POI visitors. Sixteen cities were divided into two categories using a time series clustering method. In one category, which includes the cities of San Francisco, Seattle and Chicago, we observed a considerable decrease in hotspot POI visitors, while in another category, including the cities of Austin, Houston and San Diego, the visitors to hotspots did not greatly decrease. While all the cities exhibited overall decreased visitors to POIs, one category maintained the proportion of visitors to hotspot POIs. The proportion of visitors to some POIs (e.g. restaurants) remained stable during the social distancing period, while some POIs had an increased proportion of visitors (e.g. grocery stores). We also identified POIs with significant flux-in changes, indicating that related businesses were greatly affected by social distancing. The study was limited to 16 metropolitan cities in the United States. The proposed methodology could be applied to digital trace data in other cities and countries to study the patterns of movements to POIs during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

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2. Are stay-at-home orders more difficult to follow for low-income groups?

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102894  

   Lou, Jiehong ; Shen, Xingchi ; Niemeier, Deb ( December 2020 , Journal of transport geography)

   In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing number of states, counties and cities in the United States issued mandatory stay-at-home orders as part of their efforts to slow down the spread of the virus. We argue that the consequences of this one-size-fits-all order will be differentially distributed among economic groups. In this paper, we examine social distance behavior changes for lower income populations. We conduct a comparative analysis of responses between lower-income and upper-income groups and assess their relative exposure to COVID-19 risks. Using a difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis of 3140 counties, we find social distance policy effect on the lower-income group is smaller than that of the upper-income group, by as much as 46% to 54%. Our explorations of the mechanisms behind the disparate effects suggest that for the work-related trips the stay-at-home orders do not significantly reduce low income work trips and this result is statistically significant. That is, the share of essential business defined by stay-at-home orders is significantly negatively correlated with income at county level. In the non-work-related trips, we find that both the lower-income and upper-income groups reduced visits to retail, recreation, grocery, and pharmacy visits after the stay-at-home order, with the upper-income group reducing trips more compared to lower-income group. 

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3. Identifying Ridesharing Risk, Response, and Challenges in the Emergence of Novel Coronavirus Using Interactions in Uber Drivers Forum

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2021.619283  

   Mojumder, Md Nizamul ; Ahmed, Md Ashraf ; Sadri, Arif Mohaimin ( February 2021 , Frontiers in Built Environment)

   null (Ed.)

   The outbreak and emergence of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic affected every aspect of human activity, especially the transportation sector. Many cities adopted unprecedented lockdown strategies that resulted in significant nonessential mobility restrictions; hence, transportation network companies (TNCs) have experienced major shifts in their operation. Millions of people alone in the USA have filed for unemployment in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak, many belonging to self-employed groups such as Uber/Lyft drivers. Due to unprecedented scenarios, both drivers and passengers experienced overwhelming challenges that might elongate the recovery process. The goal of this study is to understand the risk, response, and challenges associated with ridesharing (TNCs, drivers, and passengers) during the COVID-19 pandemic situation. As such, large-scale crowdsourced data were collected from online ridesharing forums (i.e., Uber Drivers) since the emergence of COVID-19 (January 25–May 10, 2020). Word bigrams, word frequency heatmaps, and topic models are among the different natural language processing and text-mining techniques used to preprocess the data and classify risk perception, risk-taking, or risk-averting behaviors associated with ridesharing during a major disease outbreak. Results indicate higher levels of concern about economic disruption, availability of stimulus checks, new employment opportunities, hospitalization, pandemic, personal hygiene, and staying at home. In addition, unprecedented challenges due to unemployment and the risk and uncertainties in the required personal protective actions against spreading the disease due to sharing are among the major interactions. The proposed text-based data analytics of the ridesharing risk communication dynamics during this pandemic will help to identify unobserved factors inadvertently affecting the TNCs as well as the users (drivers and passengers) and identify more efficient strategies and alternatives for the forthcoming “new normal” of the current pandemic and the ones in the future. The study will also guide us toward understanding how efficiently online social interaction outlets can be designed and implemented more effectively during a major crisis and how to leverage such platforms for providing guidelines during emergencies to minimize transmission of disease due to shared travel. 

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4. Exposure to infection when accessing groceries reveals racial and socioeconomic inequities in navigating the pandemic

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-28194-y  

   O’Brien, Daniel T. ; Ristea, Alina ; Dass, Sarina ( February 2023 , Scientific Reports)

   Disasters often create inequitable consequences along racial and socioeconomic lines, but a pandemic is distinctive in that communities must navigate the ongoing hazards of infection exposure. We examine this for accessing essential needs, specifically groceries. We propose three strategies for mitigating risk when accessing groceries: visit grocery stores less often; prioritize generalist grocery stores; seek out stores whose clientele have lower infection rates. The study uses a unique combination of data to examine racial and socioeconomic inequities in the ability to employ these strategies in the census block groups of greater Boston, MA in April 2020, including cellphone-generated GPS records to observe store visits, a resident survey, localized infection rates, and demographic and infrastructural characteristics. We also present an original quantification of the amount of infection risk exposure when visiting grocery stores using visits, volume of visitors at each store, and infection rates of those visitors’ communities. Each of the three strategies for mitigating exposure were employed in Boston, though differentially by community. Communities with more Black and Latinx residents and lower income made relatively more grocery store visits. This was best explained by differential use of grocery delivery services. Exposure and exposure per visit were higher in communities with more Black and Latinx residents and higher infection rates even when accounting for strategies that diminish exposure. The findings highlight two forms of inequities: using wealth to transfer risk to others through grocery deliveries; and behavioral segregation by race that makes it difficult for marginalized communities to avoid hazards.

    

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5. The unintended consequences of inconsistent closure policies and mobility restrictions during epidemics

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s44263-023-00028-z  

   Althouse, Benjamin M. ; Wallace, Brendan ; Case, B. K. M. ; Scarpino, Samuel V. ; Allard, Antoine ; Berdahl, Andrew M. ; White, Easton R. ; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent ( December 2023 , BMC Global and Public Health)

   Controlling the spread of infectious diseases―even when safe, transmission-blocking vaccines are available―may require the effective use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), e.g., mask wearing, testing, limits on group sizes, venue closure. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many countries implemented NPIs inconsistently in space and time. This inconsistency was especially pronounced for policies in the United States of America (US) related to venue closure.

   Here, we investigate the impact of inconsistent policies associated with venue closure using mathematical modeling and high-resolution human mobility, Google search, and county-level SARS-CoV-2 incidence data from the USA. Specifically, we look at high-resolution location data and perform a US-county-level analysis of nearly 8 million SARS-CoV-2 cases and 150 million location visits, including 120 million church visitors across 184,677 churches, 14 million grocery visitors across 7662 grocery stores, and 13.5 million gym visitors across 5483 gyms.

   Analyzing the interaction between venue closure and changing mobility using a mathematical model shows that, across a broad range of model parameters, inconsistent or partial closure can be worse in terms of disease transmission as compared to scenarios with no closures at all. Importantly, changes in mobility patterns due to epidemic control measures can lead to increase in the future number of cases. In the most severe cases, individuals traveling to neighboring jurisdictions with different closure policies can result in an outbreak that would otherwise have been contained. To motivate our mathematical models, we turn to mobility data and find that while stay-at-home orders and closures decreased contacts in most areas of the USA, some specific activities and venues saw an increase in attendance and an increase in the distance visitors traveled to attend. We support this finding using search query data, which clearly shows a shift in information seeking behavior concurrent with the changing mobility patterns.

   While coarse-grained observations are not sufficient to validate our models, taken together, they highlight the potential unintended consequences of inconsistent epidemic control policies related to venue closure and stress the importance of balancing the societal needs of a population with the risk of an outbreak growing into a large epidemic.

    

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