Metapopulation and source–sink dynamics are increasingly considered within spatially explicit management of wildlife populations, yet the application of these concepts has generally been limited to comparisons of the performance (e.g., demographic rates or dispersal) inside vs. outside protected areas, and at spatial scales that do not encompass an entire metapopulation. In the present study, a spatially explicit, size‐structured matrix model was applied to simulate the dynamics of an Eastern oyster (
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), located in central North America, is an important region hydrologically and ecologically. Millions of wetlands, many containing ponds, are located here, and they serve as habitats for various biota and breeding grounds for waterfowl. They also provide carbon sequestration, sediment and nutrient attenuation, and floodwater storage. Land modification and climate change are threatening the PPR, and water and wildlife managers face important conservation decisions due to these threats. We developed predictive, multisite forecasting models using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) for pond counts in the southeast PPR, the portion located within the United States, to aid in these important decisions. These forecast models predict spring (May) and summer (July) pond counts for each region (stratum) of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service’s pond and waterfowl surveys using a suite of antecedent, large-scale climate variables and indices including 500 millibar heights, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Models were developed to issue forecasts at the start of all preceding months beginning on March 1st. The models were evaluated for their performance in a predictive mode by leave-one-out cross-validation. The models exhibited good performance (
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10303216
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. 044019
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Location One hundred and thirteen sites in the United States and Canada spanning all biomes except tropical rain forest.
Major Taxa Studied Fungi.
Time Period 2011–2018.
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Main Conclusions The boreal forest occupies an especially precarious region of environmental space for the composition of soil fungal assemblages in North America, as even small degrees of warming could trigger large compositional changes characterized mainly by an influx of warm‐adapted species.
