As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.
more »
« less
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10303292
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 044006
- Size(s):
- ["Article No. 044006"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Drylands are a critical part of the earth system in terms of total area, socioeconomic and ecological importance. However, while drylands are known for their contribution to inter-annual atmospheric CO 2 variability, they are sometimes overlooked in discussions of global carbon stocks. Here, in preparation for the November 2021 UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), we review dryland systems with emphasis on their role in current and future carbon storage, response to climate change and potential to contribute to a carbon neutral future. Current estimates of carbon in dryland soils and vegetation suggest they are significant at global scale, containing approximately 30% of global carbon in above and below-ground biomass, and surface-layer soil carbon (top 30 cm). As ecosystems that are limited by water, the drylands are vulnerable to climate change. Climate change impacts are, however, dependent on future trends in rainfall that include both drying and wetting trends at regional scales. Regional rainfall trends will initiate trends in dryland productivity, vegetation structure and soil carbon storage. However, while management of fire and herbivory can contribute to increased carbon sequestration, impacts are dependent on locally unique ecosystem responses and climate-soil-plant interactions. Similarly, while community based agroforestry initiatives have been successful in some areas, large-scale afforestation programs are logistically infeasible and sometimes ecologically inappropriate at larger scales. As climate changes, top-down prescriptive measures designed to increase carbon storage should be avoided in favour of locally-adapted approaches that balance carbon management priorities with local livelihoods, ecosystem function, biodiversity and cultural, social and economic priorities.more » « less
-
Drylands cover ca. 40% of the land surface and are hypothesised to play a major role in the global carbon cycle, controlling both long-term trends and interannual variation. These insights originate from land surface models (LSMs) that have not been extensively calibrated and evaluated for water-limited ecosystems. We need to learn more about dryland carbon dynamics, particularly as the transitory response and rapid turnover rates of semi-arid systems may limit their function as a carbon sink over multi-decadal scales. We quantified aboveground biomass carbon (AGC; inferred from SMOS L-band vegetation optical depth) and gross primary productivity (GPP; from PML-v2 inferred from MODIS observations) and tested their spatial and temporal correspondence with estimates from the TRENDY ensemble of LSMs. We found strong correspondence in GPP between LSMs and PML-v2 both in spatial patterns (Pearson’s r = 0.9 for TRENDY-mean) and in inter-annual variability, but not in trends. Conversely, for AGC we found lesser correspondence in space (Pearson’s r = 0.75 for TRENDY-mean, strong biases for individual models) and in the magnitude of inter-annual variability compared to satellite retrievals. These disagreements likely arise from limited representation of ecosystem responses to plant water availability, fire, and photodegradation that drive dryland carbon dynamics. We assessed inter-model agreement and drivers of long-term change in carbon stocks over centennial timescales. This analysis suggested that the simulated trend of increasing carbon stocks in drylands is in soils and primarily driven by increased productivity due to CO 2 enrichment. However, there is limited empirical evidence of this 50-year sink in dryland soils. Our findings highlight important uncertainties in simulations of dryland ecosystems by current LSMs, suggesting a need for continued model refinements and for greater caution when interpreting LSM estimates with regards to current and future carbon dynamics in drylands and by extension the global carbon cycle.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Given the current rates of climate change, with associated shifts in herbivore population densities, understanding the role of different herbivores in ecosystem functioning is critical for predicting ecosystem responses. Here, we examined how migratory geese and resident, non‐migratory reindeer—two dominating yet functionally contrasting herbivores—control vegetation and ecosystem processes in rapidly warming Arctic tundra.
We collected vegetation and ecosystem carbon (C) flux data at peak plant growing season in the two longest running, fully replicated herbivore removal experiments found in high‐Arctic Svalbard. Experiments had been set up independently in wet habitat utilised by barnacle geese
Branta leucopsis in summer and in moist‐to‐dry habitat utilised by wild reindeerRangifer tarandus platyrhynchus year‐round.Excluding geese induced vegetation state transitions from heavily grazed, moss‐dominated (only 4 g m−2of live above‐ground vascular plant biomass) to ungrazed, graminoid‐dominated (60 g m−2after 4‐year exclusion) and horsetail‐dominated (150 g m−2after 15‐year exclusion) tundra. This caused large increases in vegetation C and nitrogen (N) pools, dead biomass and moss‐layer depth. Alterations in plant N concentration and CN ratio suggest overall slower plant community nutrient dynamics in the short‐term (4‐year) absence of geese. Long‐term (15‐year) goose removal quadrupled net ecosystem C sequestration (NEE) by increasing ecosystem photosynthesis more than ecosystem respiration (ER).
Excluding reindeer for 21 years also produced detectable increases in live above‐ground vascular plant biomass (from 50 to 80 g m−2; without promoting vegetation state shifts), as well as in vegetation C and N pools, dead biomass, moss‐layer depth and ER. Yet, reindeer removal did not alter the chemistry of plants and soil or NEE.
Synthesis . Although both herbivores were key drivers of ecosystem structure and function, the control exerted by geese in their main habitat (wet tundra) was much more pronounced than that exerted by reindeer in their main habitat (moist‐to‐dry tundra). Importantly, these herbivore effects are scale dependent, because geese are more spatially concentrated and thereby affect a smaller portion of the tundra landscape compared to reindeer. Our results highlight the substantial heterogeneity in how herbivores shape tundra vegetation and ecosystem processes, with implications for ongoing environmental change. -
more » « less
Abstract Phosphorus (P) limits or co‐limits plant and microbial life in multiple ecosystems, including the arctic tundra. Although current global carbon (C) models focus on the coupling between soil nitrogen (N) and C, ecosystem P response to climate warming may also influence the global C cycle. Permafrost soils may see enhanced or reduced P availability under climate warming through multiple mechanisms including changing litter inputs through plant community change, changing plant–microbial dynamics, altered rates of mineralization of soil organic P through increased microbial activity, and newly exposed mineral‐bound P via deeper thaw. We investigated the effect of long‐term warming on plant leaf, multiple soil and microbial C, N, and P pools, and microbial extracellular enzyme activities, in Alaskan tundra plots underlain by permafrost. Here, we show that 25 yr of experimental summer warming increases community‐level plant leaf P through changing community composition to favour relatively P‐rich plant species. However, despite associated increases in P‐rich litter inputs, we found only a few responses in the belowground pools of P available for plant and microbial uptake, including a weak positive response for citric acid–extractable PO4in the surface soil, a decrease in microbial biomass P, and no change in soil P (or C or N) stocks. This weak, neutral, or negative belowground P response to warming despite enhanced litter P inputs is consistent with a growing number of studies in the arctic tundra that find no long‐term response of soil C and N stocks to warming.
