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  • Dynamic Ensembles versus Cones of Uncertainty: Visualizations to Support Understanding of Uncertainty in Hurricane Forecasts
Title: Dynamic Ensembles versus Cones of Uncertainty: Visualizations to Support Understanding of Uncertainty in Hurricane Forecasts
Visualizations attempt to convey the uncertain track of an approaching hurricane. The current experiment contrasted decision characteristics that resulted from observing hurricane paths presented using cones of uncertainty versus a new form of dynamic ensemble. Participants made judgments about whether to evacuate a town at different eccentricities to the central predicted path of a storm. Results showed that dynamic ensembles have different properties to cone displays. Presentations of dynamic ensembles encouraged greater consideration of evacuation at locations further from the most probable path, but that were still at risk. However, dynamic ensembles resulted in lower evacuation rates at the center of the distribution, consistent with a probabilistic sense of the risk but nonetheless a potentially undesirable strategy. In addition, perceptions of the evacuation need with dynamic ensemble presentations were more strongly influenced by the amount of variability than with cones. The implications for use of dynamic ensembles are discussed.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1632222
PAR ID:
10304289
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting
Volume:
64
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2169-5067
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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