West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading mosquito-borne disease causing-pathogen in the United States. Concerningly, there are no prophylactics or drug treatments for WNV and public health programs rely heavily on vector control efforts to lessen disease incidence. Insecticides can be effective in reducing vector numbers if implemented strategically, but can diminish in efficacy and promote insecticide resistance otherwise. Vector control programs which employ mass-fogging applications of insecticides, often conduct these methods during the late-night hours, when diel temperatures are coldest, and without a-priori knowledge on daily mosquito activity patterns. This study’s aims were to 1) quantify the effect of temperature on the toxicity of two conventional insecticides used in fogging applications (malathion and deltamethrin) to
Mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) threaten over 80% of the world’s population, and are increasing in intensity and shifting in geographical range with land use and climate change. Mitigation hinges on understanding disease-specific risk profiles, but current risk maps are severely limited in spatial resolution. One important determinant of MBD risk is temperature, and though the relationships between temperature and risk have been extensively studied, maps are often created using sparse data that fail to capture microclimatic conditions. Here, we leverage high resolution land surface temperature (LST) measurements, in conjunction with established relationships between air temperature and MBD risk factors like mosquito biting rate and transmission probability, to produce fine resolution (70 m) maps of MBD risk components. We focus our case study on West Nile virus (WNV) in the San Joaquin Valley of California, where temperatures vary widely across the day and the diverse agricultural/urban landscape. We first use field measurements to establish a relationship between LST and air temperature, and apply it to Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment data (2018–2020) in peak WNV transmission months (June–September). We then use the previously derived equations to estimate spatially explicit mosquito biting and WNV transmission rates. We use these maps to uncover significant differences in risk across land cover types, and identify the times of day which contribute to high risk for different land covers. Additionally, we evaluate the value of high resolution spatial and temporal data in avoiding biased risk estimates due to Jensen’s inequality, and find that using aggregate data leads to significant biases of up to 40.5% in the possible range of risk values. Through this analysis, we show that the synergy between novel remote sensing technology and fundamental principles of disease ecology can unlock new insights into the spatio-temporal dynamics of MBDs.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10307594
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. 124014
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Mireji, Paul O (Ed.)
Culex tarsalis , an important WNV vector, and 2) quantify the time of host-seeking ofCx .tarsalis and other local mosquito species in Maricopa County, Arizona. The temperature-toxicity relationship of insecticides was assessed using the WHO tube bioassay, and adultCx .tarsalis , collected as larvae, were exposed to three different insecticide doses at three temperature regimes (15, 25, and 35°C; 80% RH). Time of host-seeking was assessed using collection bottle rotators with encephalitis vector survey traps baited with dry ice, first at 3h intervals during a full day, followed by 1h intervals during the night-time. Malathion became less toxic at cooler temperatures at all doses, while deltamethrin was less toxic at cooler temperatures at the low dose. Regarding time of host-seeking,Cx .tarsalis ,Aedes vexans , andCulex quinquefasciatus were the most abundant vectors captured. During the 3-hour interval surveillance over a full day,Cx .tarsalis were most-active during post-midnight biting (00:00–6:00), accounting for 69.0% of allCx .tarsalis , while pre-midnight biting (18:00–24:00) accounted for 30.0% ofCx .tarsalis . During the 1-hour interval surveillance overnight,Cx .tarsalis were most-active during pre-midnight hours (18:00–24:00), accounting for 50.2% ofCx .tarsalis captures, while post-midnight biting (00:00–6:00) accounted for 49.8% ofCx .tarsalis . Our results suggest that programs employing large-scale applications of insecticidal fogging should consider temperature-toxicity relationships coupled with time of host-seeking data to maximize the efficacy of vector control interventions in reducing mosquito-borne disease burden. -
Since its introduction to North America in 1999, the West Nile virus (WNV) has resulted in over 50,000 human cases and 2400 deaths. WNV transmission is maintained via mosquito vectors and avian reservoir hosts, yet mosquito and avian infections are not uniform across ecological landscapes. As a result, it remains unclear whether the ecological communities of the vectors or reservoir hosts are more predictive of zoonotic risk at the microhabitat level. We examined this question in central Iowa, representative of the midwestern United States, across a land use gradient consisting of suburban interfaces with natural and agricultural habitats. At eight sites, we captured mosquito abundance data using New Jersey light traps and monitored bird communities using visual and auditory point count surveys. We found that the mosquito minimum infection rate (MIR) was better predicted by metrics of the mosquito community than metrics of the bird community, where sites with higher proportions of Culex pipiens group mosquitoes during late summer (after late July) showed higher MIRs. Bird community metrics did not significantly influence mosquito MIRs across sites. Together, these data suggest that the microhabitat suitability of Culex vector species is of greater importance than avian community composition in driving WNV infection dynamics at the urban and agricultural interface.more » « less
-
ABSTRACT Mosquito surveillance is critical to reduce the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans. In response to surveillance indicators such as elevated mosquito abundance or increased WNV levels, many mosquito control programs will perform truck-mounted ultra-low volume (ULV) adulticide application to reduce the number of mosquitoes and associated virus transmission. Despite the common use of truck-based ULV adulticiding as a public health measure to reduce WNV prevalence, limited evidence exists to support a role in reducing viral transmission to humans. We use a generalized additive and fused ridge regression model to quantify the location-specific impact of truck-mounted ULV adulticide spray efforts from 2010 to 2018 in the North Shore Mosquito Abatement District (NSMAD) in metropolitan Chicago, IL, on commonly assessed risk factors from NSMAD surveillance gravid traps: Culex abundance, infection rate, and vector index. Our model also takes into account environmental variables commonly associated with WNV, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, location, and week of year. Since it is unlikely ULV adulticide spraying will have the same impact at each trap location, we use a spatially varying spray effect with a fused ridge penalty to determine how the effect varies by trap location. We found that ULV adulticide spraying has an immediate temporary reduction in abundance followed by an increase after 5 days. It is estimated that mosquito abundance increased more in sprayed areas than if left unsprayed in all but 3 trap locations. The impact on infection rate and vector index were inconclusive due to the large error associated with estimating trap-specific infection rates.more » « less
-
The urban heat island (UHI) effect, the phenomenon by which cities are warmer than rural surroundings, is increasingly important in a rapidly urbanizing and warming world, but fine-scale differences in temperature within cities are difficult to observe accurately. Networks of air temperature (Tair) sensors rarely offer the spatial density needed to capture neighborhood-level disparities in warming, while satellite measures of land surface temperature (LST) do not reflect the air temperatures that people physically experience. This analysis combines both Tair measurements recorded by a spatially-dense stationary sensor network in Dane County, Wisconsin, and remotely-sensed measurements of LST over the same area—to improve the use and interpretation of LST in UHI studies. The data analyzed span three summer months (June, July, and August) and eight years (2012–2019). Overall, Tair and LST displayed greater agreement in spatial distribution than in magnitude. The relationship between day of the year and correlation was fit to a parabolic curve (R2 = 0.76, p = 0.0002) that peaked in late July. The seasonal evolution in the relationship between Tair and LST, along with particularly high variability in LST across agricultural land cover suggest that plant phenology contributes to a seasonally varying relationship between Tair and LST measurements of the UHI.more » « less
-
Wen, Feng (Ed.)Background Since 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has moved rapidly across the United States, resulting in tens of thousands of human cases. Both the number of human cases and the minimum infection rate (MIR) in vector mosquitoes vary across time and space and are driven by numerous abiotic and biotic forces, ranging from differences in microclimates to socio-demographic factors. Because the interactions among these multiple factors affect the locally variable risk of WNV illness, it has been especially difficult to model human disease risk across varying spatial and temporal scales. Cook and DuPage Counties, comprising the city of Chicago and surrounding suburbs, experience some of the highest numbers of human neuroinvasive cases of WNV in the United States. Despite active mosquito control efforts, there is consistent annual WNV presence, resulting in more than 285 confirmed WNV human cases and 20 deaths from the years 2014–2018 in Cook County alone. Methods A previous Chicago-area WNV model identified the fifty-five most high and low risk locations in the Northwest Mosquito Abatement District (NWMAD), an enclave ¼ the size of the combined Cook and DuPage county area. In these locations, human WNV risk was stratified by model performance, as indicated by differences in studentized residuals. Within these areas, an additional two-years of field collections and data processing was added to a 12-year WNV dataset that includes human cases, MIR, vector abundance, and land-use, historical climate, and socio-economic and demographic variables, and was assessed by an ultra-fine-scale (1 km spatial x 1 week temporal resolution) multivariate logistic regression model. Results Multivariate statistical methods applied to the ultra-fine-scale model identified fewer explanatory variables while improving upon the fit of the previous model. Beyond MIR and climatic factors, efforts to acquire additional covariates only slightly improved model predictive performance. Conclusions These results suggest human WNV illness in the Chicago area may be associated with fewer, but increasingly critical, key variables at finer scales. Given limited resources, these findings suggest large variations in model performance occur, depending on covariate availability, and provide guidance in variable selection for optimal WNV human illness modeling.more » « less