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1. The Impact of Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Variability on Climate Change Beliefs in the American Public

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-23-0014.1  

   Alexander, Sarah ; Calice, Mikhaila N. ; Scheufele, Dietram ; Brossard, Dominique ; Krause, Nicole ; Wright, Daniel B. ; Block, Paul ( October 2023 , Weather, Climate, and Society)

   Although scientists agree that climate change is anthropogenic, differing interpretations of evidence in a highly polarized sociopolitical environment impact how individuals perceive climate change. While prior work suggests that individuals experience climate change through local conditions, there is a lack of consensus on how personal experience with extreme precipitation may alter public opinion on climate change. We combine high-resolution precipitation data at the zip-code level with nationally representative public opinion survey results (n= 4008) that examine beliefs in climate change and the perceived cause. Our findings support relationships between well-established value systems (i.e., partisanship, religion) and socioeconomic status with individual opinions of climate change, showing that these values are influential in opinion formation on climate issues. We also show that experiencing characteristics of atypical precipitation (e.g., more variability than normal, increasing or decreasing trends, or highly recurring extreme events) in a local area are associated with increased belief in anthropogenic climate change. This suggests that individuals in communities that experience greater atypical precipitation may be more accepting of messaging and policy strategies directly aimed at addressing climate change challenges. Thus, communication strategies that leverage individual perception of atypical precipitation at the local level may help tap into certain “experiential” processing methods, making climate change feel less distant. These strategies may help reduce polarization and motivate mitigation and adaptation actions.

   Public acceptance for anthropogenic climate change is hindered by how related issues are presented, diverse value systems, and information-processing biases. Personal experiences with extreme weather may act as a salient cue that impacts individuals’ perceptions of climate change. We couple a large, nationally representative public opinion dataset with station precipitation data at the zip-code level in the United States. Results are nuanced but suggest that anomalous and variable precipitation in a local area may be interpreted as evidence for anthropogenic climate change. So, relating atypical local precipitation conditions to climate change may help tap into individuals’ experiential processing, sidestep polarization, and tailor communications at the local level.

    

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2. Understanding perceived climate risks to household water supply and their implications for adaptation: evidence from California

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03517-0  

   Dobbin, Kristin B. ; Fencl, Amanda L. ; Pierce, Gregory ; Beresford, Melissa ; Gonzalez, Silvia ; Jepson, Wendy ( April 2023 , Climatic Change)

   Rapid adaptation is necessary to maintain, let alone expand, access to reliable, safe drinking water in the face of climate change. Existing research focuses largely on the role, priorities, and incentives of local managers to pursue adaptation strategies while mostly neglecting the role of the broader public, despite the strong public support required to fund and implement many climate adaptation plans. In this paper, we interrogate the relationship between personal experiences of household water supply impacts from extreme weather events and hazard exposure with individual concern about future supply reliability among a statewide representative sample of California households. We find that more than one-third of Californians report experiencing impacts of climate change on their household water supplies and show that these reported impacts differently influence residents’ concern about future water supply reliability, depending on the type of event experienced. In contrast, residents’ concern about future water supplies is not significantly associated with hazard exposure. These findings emphasize the importance of local managers’ attending to not only how climate change is projected to affect their water resources, but how, and whether, residents perceive these risks. The critical role of personal experience in increasing concern highlights that post-extreme events with water supply impacts may offer a critical window to advance solutions. Managers should not assume, however, that all extreme events will promote concern in the same way or to the same degree.

    

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3. Global Assessment of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposures of Population, Agriculture, and Forest Lands Under Two Climate Scenarios

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004845  

   Schillerberg, Tayler_A ; Tian, Di ( September 2024 , Earth's Future)

   Climate change is expected to increase the global occurrence and intensity of heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts. However, it is not well understood how the compound heatwave, extreme precipitation, and flash drought events will likely change, and how global population, agriculture, and forest will likely be exposed to these compound events under future climate change scenarios. This research uses eight CMIP6 climate models to assess the current and future global compound climate extreme events, as well as population, agriculture, and forestry exposures to these events, under two climate scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for three time periods: early‐, mid‐, and late‐ 21st century. Climate extremes are derived for heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts using locational‐dependent thresholds. We find that compound heatwaves and flash drought events result in the largest increases in exposure of populations, agriculture, and forest lands, under SSP5‐8.5 late‐century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts. Late‐century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts show hot spots of exposure increases in population exposure greater than 50 million person‐events in China, India, and Europe; increases in agriculture land exposures greater than 90 thousand km²‐events in China, South America, and Oceania; and increase in forest land exposure greater than 120 thousand km²‐events in Oceania and South America regions when compared to the historical period. The findings from this study can be potentially useful for informing global climate adaptations.

    

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4. Hurricane adaptation behaviors in Texas and Florida: exploring the roles of negative personal experience and subjective attribution to climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4858  

   Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle ; Garfin, Dana Rose ( March 2022 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Understanding the motivation to adopt personal household adaptation behaviors in the face of climate change-related hazards is essential for developing and implementing behaviorally realistic interventions that promote well-being and health. Escalating extreme weather events increase the number of those directly exposed and adversely impacted by climate change. But do people attribute these negative events to climate change? Such subjective attribution may be a cognitive process whereby the experience of negative climate-change-related events may increase risk perceptions and motivate people to act. Here we surveyed a representative sample of 1846 residents of Florida and Texas, many of whom had been repeatedly exposed to hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, facing the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. We assessed prior hurricane negative personal experiences, climate-change-related subjective attribution (for hurricanes), risk appraisal (perceived probability and severity of a hurricane threat), hurricane adaptation appraisal (perceived efficacy of adaptation measures and self-efficacy to address the threat of hurricanes), and self-reported hurricane personal household adaptation. Our findings suggest that prior hurricane negative personal experiences and subjective attribution are associated with greater hurricane risk appraisal. Hurricane subjective attribution moderated the relationship between hurricane negative personal experiences and risk appraisal; in turn, negative hurricane personal experiences, hurricane risk appraisal, and adaptation appraisal were positively associated with self-reported hurricane personal adaptation behaviors. Subjective attribution may be associated with elevated perceived risk for specific climate hazards. Communications that help people understand the link between their negative personal experiences (e.g. hurricanes) and climate change may help guide risk perceptions and motivate protective actions, particularly in areas with repeated exposure to threats.

    

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5. Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasting for our Changing World

   https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0262.1  

   Brunet, Gilbert ; Parsons, David B. ; Ivanov, Dimitar ; Lee, Boram ; Bauer, Peter ; Bernier, Natacha B. ; Bouchet, Veronique ; Brown, Andy ; Busalacchi, Antonio ; Flatter, Georgina Campbell ; et al ( August 2022 , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society)

   Abstract Our world is rapidly changing. Societies are facing an increase in the frequency and intensity of high impact and extreme weather and climate events. These extremes together with exponential population growth and demographic shifts (e.g., urbanization, increase in coastal populations) are increasing the detrimental societal and economic impact of hazardous weather and climate events. Urbanization and our changing global economy have also increased the need for accurate projections of climate change and improved predictions of disruptive and potentially beneficial weather events on km-scales. Technological innovations are also leading to an evolving and growing role of the private sector in the weather and climate enterprise. This article discusses the challenges faced in accelerating advances in weather and climate forecasting and proposes a vision for key actions needed across the private, public, and academic sectors. Actions span: i) Utilizing the new observational and computing ecosystems; ii) Strategies to advance earth system models; iii) Ways to benefit from the growing role of artificial intelligence; iv) Practices to improve the communication of forecast information and decision support in our age of internet and social media; and v) Addressing the need to reduce the relatively large, detrimental impacts of weather and climate on all nations and especially on low income nations. These actions will be based on a model of improved cooperation between the public, private, and academic sectors. This article represents a concise summary of the White Paper on the Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting (2021) put together by the World Meteorological Organizations’s Open Consultative Platform. 

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