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1. Creeping Gas Hydrate Slides

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.proc.372A.2019  

   Pecher, I.A.; Barnes, P.M.; LeVay, L.J. (May 2019, Proceedings of the International Ocean Discovery Program)

   null (Ed.)

   International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 372 combined two research topics: actively deforming gas hydrate–bearing landslides (IODP Proposal 841-APL) and slow slip events on subduction faults (IODP Proposal 781A-Full). This expedition included a coring and logging-while-drilling (LWD) program for Proposal 841-APL and a LWD program for Proposal 781A-Full. The coring and observatory placement for Proposal 781A-Full were completed during Expedition 375. The Expedition 372A Proceedings volume focuses only on the results related to Proposal 841-APL. The results of the Hikurangi margin drilling are found in the Expedition 372B/375 Proceedings volume. Gas hydrates have long been suspected of being involved in seafloor failure. Not much evidence, however, has been found to date for gas hydrate–related submarine landslides. Solid, ice-like gas hydrate in sediment pores is generally thought to increase seafloor strength, which is confirmed by a number of laboratory measurements. Dissociation of gas hydrate to water and overpressured gas, on the other hand, may weaken and destabilize sediments, potentially causing submarine landslides. The Tuaheni Landslide Complex (TLC) on the Hikurangi margin shows evidence for active, creeping deformation. Intriguingly, the landward edge of creeping coincides with the pinch-out of the base of gas hydrate stability on the seafloor. We therefore proposed that gas hydrate may be involved in creep-like deformation and presented several hypotheses that may link gas hydrates to slow deformation. Alternatively, creeping may not be related to gas hydrates but instead be caused by repeated pressure pulses or linked to earthquake-related liquefaction. Plans for Expedition 372A included a coring and LWD program to test our landslide hypotheses. Because of weather-related downtime, the gas hydrate–related program was reduced and we focused on a set of experiments at Site U1517 in the creeping part of the TLC. We conducted a LWD and coring program to 205 m below the seafloor through the TLC and the gas hydrate stability zone, followed by temperature and pressure tool deployments. 

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2. Predictive Models of Mortality for Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: Retrospective Cohort Study

   https://doi.org/10.2196/21788  

   Wang, Taiyao; Paschalidis, Aris; Liu, Quanying; Liu, Yingxia; Yuan, Ye; Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch (January 2020, JMIR Medical Informatics)

   null (Ed.)

   Background The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and its associated disease, COVID-19, have caused worldwide disruption, leading countries to take drastic measures to address the progression of the disease. As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread, hospitals are struggling to allocate resources to patients who are most at risk. In this context, it has become important to develop models that can accurately predict the severity of infection of hospitalized patients to help guide triage, planning, and resource allocation. Objective The aim of this study was to develop accurate models to predict the mortality of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 using basic demographics and easily obtainable laboratory data. Methods We performed a retrospective study of 375 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. The patients were randomly split into derivation and validation cohorts. Regularized logistic regression and support vector machine classifiers were trained on the derivation cohort, and accuracy metrics (F1 scores) were computed on the validation cohort. Two types of models were developed: the first type used laboratory findings from the entire length of the patient’s hospital stay, and the second type used laboratory findings that were obtained no later than 12 hours after admission. The models were further validated on a multicenter external cohort of 542 patients. Results Of the 375 patients with COVID-19, 174 (46.4%) died of the infection. The study cohort was composed of 224/375 men (59.7%) and 151/375 women (40.3%), with a mean age of 58.83 years (SD 16.46). The models developed using data from throughout the patients’ length of stay demonstrated accuracies as high as 97%, whereas the models with admission laboratory variables possessed accuracies of up to 93%. The latter models predicted patient outcomes an average of 11.5 days in advance. Key variables such as lactate dehydrogenase, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and percentage of lymphocytes in the blood were indicated by the models. In line with previous studies, age was also found to be an important variable in predicting mortality. In particular, the mean age of patients who survived COVID-19 infection (50.23 years, SD 15.02) was significantly lower than the mean age of patients who died of the infection (68.75 years, SD 11.83; P<.001). Conclusions Machine learning models can be successfully employed to accurately predict outcomes of patients with COVID-19. Our models achieved high accuracies and could predict outcomes more than one week in advance; this promising result suggests that these models can be highly useful for resource allocation in hospitals. 

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3. Expedition 372 Scientific Prospectus: Creeping Gas Hydrate Slides and LWD for Hikurangi Subduction Margin

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.sp.372.2017  

   Barnes, P.M.; Pecher, I.; LeVay, L. (February 2017, Scientific prospectus)

   null (Ed.)

   International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 372 combines two research topics, slow slip events (SSEs) on subduction faults (IODP Proposal 781A-Full) and actively deforming gas hydrate–bearing landslides (Proposal 841-APL). Our study area on the Hikurangi margin east of New Zealand provides unique locations for addressing both research topics. Gas hydrates have long been suspected of being involved in seafloor failure; not much evidence, however, has been found to date for gas hydrate–related submarine landslides. Solid, icelike gas hydrate in sediment pores is generally thought to increase seafloor strength, as confirmed by a number of laboratory measurements. Dissociation of gas hydrate to water and overpressured gas, on the other hand, may destabilize the seafloor, potentially causing submarine landslides. The Tuaheni Landslide Complex on the Hikurangi margin shows evidence for active, creeping deformation. Intriguingly, the landward edge of creeping coincides with the pinchout of the base of gas hydrate stability (BGHS) on the seafloor. We therefore hypothesize that gas hydrate may be linked to creeping by (1) repeated small-scale sliding at the BGHS, in a variation of the conventional model linking gas hydrates and seafloor failure; (2) overpressure at the BGHS due to a permeability reduction linked to gas hydrates, which may lead to hydrofracturing, weakening the seafloor and allowing transmission of pressure into the gas hydrate stability zone; or (3) icelike viscous deformation of gas hydrates in sediment pores, similar to onshore rock glaciers. The latter two processes imply that gas hydrate itself is involved in creeping, constituting a paradigm shift in relating gas hydrates to submarine slope failure. Alternatively, creeping may not be related to gas hydrates but instead be caused by repeated pressure pulses or linked to earthquake-related liquefaction. We have devised a coring and logging program to test our hypotheses. SSEs at subduction zones are an enigmatic form of creeping fault behavior. At the northern Hikurangi subduction margin (HSM), they are among the best-documented and shallowest on Earth. They recur about every 2 y and may extend close to the trench, where clastic and pelagic sediments about 1.0–1.5 km thick overlie the subducting, seamount-studded Hikurangi Plateau. The northern HSM thus provides an excellent setting to use IODP capabilities to discern the mechanisms behind slow slip fault behavior, as proposed in IODP Proposal 781A-Full. The objectives of Proposal 781A-Full will be implemented across two related IODP expeditions, 372 and 375. Expedition 372 will undertake logging while drilling (LWD) at three sites targeting the upper plate (midslope basin, proposed Site HSM-01A), the frontal thrust (proposed Site HSM-18A), and the subducting section in the trench (proposed Site HSM-05A). Expedition 375 will undertake coring at the same sites, as well as an additional seamount site on the subducting plate, and implement the borehole observatory objectives. The data from each expedition will be shared between both scientific parties. Collectively, the LWD and coring data will be used to (1) characterize the compositional, structural, thermal, and diagenetic state of the incoming plate and the shallow plate boundary fault near the trench, which comprise the protolith and initial conditions for fault zone rock associated with SSEs at greater depth, and (2) characterize the material properties, thermal regime, and stress conditions in the upper plate above the SSE source region. These data will be used during Expedition 375 to guide the installation of CORK observatories at the frontal thrust and in the upper plate above the SSE source to monitor temporal variations in deformation, fluid flow, seismicity, and physical and chemical properties throughout the SSE cycle (Saffer et al., 2017). Together, these data will test a suite of hypotheses about the fundamental mechanics and behavior of SSEs and their relationship to great earthquakes along the subduction interface. 

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4. Evaluating manual versus automated benthic foraminiferal δ ¹⁸ O alignment techniques for developing chronostratigraphies in marine sediment records

   https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-125-2024  

   Middleton, Jennifer L.; Gottschalk, Julia; Winckler, Gisela; Hanley, Jean; Knudson, Carol; Farmer, Jesse R.; Lamy, Frank; Lisiecki, Lorraine E. (January 2024, Geochronology)

   Abstract. Paleoceanographic interpretations of Plio-Pleistocene climate variability over the past 5 million years rely on the evaluation of event timing of proxy changes in sparse records across multiple ocean basins. In turn, orbital-scale chronostratigraphic controls for these records are often built from stratigraphic alignment of benthic foraminiferal stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) records to a preferred dated target stack or composite. This chronostratigraphic age model approach yields age model uncertainties associated with alignment method, target selection, the assumption that the undated record and target experienced synchronous changes in benthic foraminiferal δ18O values, and the assumption that any possible stratigraphic discontinuities within the undated record have been appropriately identified. However, these age model uncertainties and their impact on paleoceanographic interpretations are seldom reported or discussed. Here, we investigate and discuss these uncertainties for conventional manual and automated tuning techniques based on benthic foraminiferal δ18O records and evaluate their impact on sedimentary age models over the past 3.5 Myr using three sedimentary benthic foraminiferal δ18O records as case studies. In one case study, we present a new benthic foraminiferal δ18O record for International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1541 (54°13′ S, 125°25′ W), recently recovered from the South Pacific on IODP Expedition 383. The other two case studies examine published benthic foraminiferal δ18O records of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1090 and the ODP Site 980/981 composite. Our analysis suggests average age uncertainties of 3 to 5 kyr associated with manually derived versus automated alignment, 1 to 3 kyr associated with automated probabilistic alignment itself, and 2 to 6 kyr associated with the choice of tuning target. Age uncertainties are higher near stratigraphic segment ends and where local benthic foraminiferal δ18O stratigraphy differs from the tuning target. We conclude with recommendations for community best practices for the development and characterization of age uncertainty of sediment core chronostratigraphies based on benthic foraminiferal δ18O records. 

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5. Site U1575

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.proc.391.103.2023  

   Sager, W.; Hoernle, K.; Höfig, T.W.; Avery, A.J.; Bhutani, R.; Buchs, D.M.; Carvallo, C.A.; Class, C.; Dai, Y.; Dalla Valle, G.; et al (October 2023, Proceedings of the International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition reports)

   The strategy for International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 391 (Walvis Ridge Hotspot) was to drill at three general locations on Walvis Ridge and one in Guyot Province, providing an age transect along the Tristan-Gough-Walvis (TGW) hotspot track. Site U1575 (proposed Site FR-1B), located on the lower Walvis Ridge between Valdivia Bank and Frio Ridge (Figure F1), is the easternmost and presumably the oldest site. Both hotspot models and the age progression of Homrighausen et al. (2019) predict an age of ~100 Ma (Figures F2, F3). Site U1575 is thus an important sample of the early TGW track shortly after it transitioned from the continental flood basalt to the submarine hotspot track setting. 

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