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We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis , a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.
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Harmful Algal Bloom Task Force. 2022. Progress and Recommendations Regarding Red Tide (Karenia brevis) Blooms.
This second consensus document builds on the first, providing updates on actions to address the initial recommendations and identifying additional actions that will advance management of red tide. The HAB Task Force continues to recommend actions that create improved understanding of red tide and translate it into enhanced management. Like its predecessor, this document is not intended to provide an exhaustive list of useful actions. The recommendations are meant to complement and support other efforts to set long-term goals and implement specific actions that minimize the harmful effects of red tide as well as a variety of other HABs that impact Florida, such as the work of the Blue-Green Algae Task Force.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1840381
- PAR ID:
- 10312734
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, St. Petersburg, FL
- Volume:
- Consensus document #2
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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