Alterations in global climate via extreme precipitation will have broadscale implications on ecosystem functioning. The increased frequency of drought, coupled with heavy, episodic rainfall are likely to generate impacts on biotic and abiotic processes across aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Despite the demonstrated shifts in global precipitation, less is known how extreme precipitation interacts with biophysical factors to control future demographic processes, especially those sensitive to climate extremes such as organismal recruitment and survival. We utilized a field‐based precipitation manipulation experiment in 0.1 ha forest canopy openings to test future climate scenarios characterized by extreme precipitation on temperate tree seedling survival. The effects of planting seedbeds (undisturbed leaf litter/organic material vs. scarified, exposed mineral soils), seedling ontogeny, species, and functional traits were examined against four statistically defined precipitation scenarios. Results indicated that seedlings grown within precipitation treatments characterized by heavy, episodic rainfall preceded by prolonged drying responded similarly to drought treatments lacking episodic inputs. Moreover, among all treatment conditions tested, scarified seedbeds most strongly affected seedling survivorship (odds ratio 6.9). Compared with any precipitation treatment, the effect size (predicted probabilities) of the seedbed was more than twice as important in controlling seedling survivorship. However, the interaction between precipitation and seedbed resulted in a 27.9% improvement in survivorship for moisture‐sensitive species. Seedling sensitivity to moisture was variable among species, and most closely linked with functional traits such as seed mass. For instance, under dry moisture regimes, survivorship increased linearly with seed mass (log transformed; adjusted
Species distribution models predict shifts in forest habitat in response to warming temperatures associated with climate change, yet tree migration rates lag climate change, leading to misalignment of current species assemblages with future climate conditions. Forest adaptation strategies have been proposed to deliberately adjust species composition by planting climate‐suitable species. Practical evaluations of adaptation plantings are limited, especially in the context of ecological memory or extreme climate events. In this study, we examined the 3‐year survival and growth response of future climate‐adapted seedling transplants within operational‐scale silvicultural trials across temperate forests in the northeastern US. Nine species were selected for evaluation based on projected future importance under climate change and potential functional redundancy with species currently found in these ecosystems. We investigated how adaptation planting type (‘population enrichment’ vs. ‘assisted range expansion’) and local site conditions reinforce interference interactions with existing vegetation at filtering adaptation strategies focused on transitioning forest composition. Our results show the performance of seedling transplants is based on species (e.g. functional attributes and size), the strength of local competition (e.g. ecological memory) and adaptation planting type, a proxy for source distance. These findings were consistent across regional forests but modified by site‐specific conditions such as browse pressure and extreme climate events, namely drought and spring frost events.
- Award ID(s):
- 1920908
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10447317
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Applied Ecology
- Volume:
- 59
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0021-8901
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 314-329
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract R 2 = 0.72,p < 0.001), yet no relationship was apparent under wet moisture regimes. Although precipitation influenced survival, extreme rainfall events were not enough to offset moisture deficits nor provide a rescue effect under drought conditions. The relationships reported here highlight the importance of plant seedbeds and species (e.g., functional traits) as edaphic and biotic controls that modify the influence of extreme future precipitation on seedling survival in temperate forests. Finally, we demonstrated the biophysical factors that were most influential to early forest development and that may override the negative effects of increasingly variable precipitation. This work contributes to refinements of species distribution models and can inform reforestation strategies intended to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function under increasing climate extremes. -
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We examine how temporal variability in rates of background tree mortality for four subalpine conifers reflects variability in climate and climate teleconnections using observations of tree mortality from 1982 to 2019 at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. Individually marked trees (initial population 5,043) in 13 permanent plots—located across a range of site conditions, stand ages and species compositions—were censused for new mortality nine times over 37 years.
Background tree mortality was primarily attributed to stress from unfavourable climate and competition (71.2%) and bark beetle activity (23.3%), whereas few trees died from wind (5.3%) and wildlife impacts (0.2%). Mean annualized tree mortality attributed to tree stress and bark beetles more than tripled across all stands between initial censuses (0.26% year−1, 1982–1993/1994) and recent censuses (0.82% year−1, 2008–2019). Higher rates of tree mortality were related to warmer maximum summer temperatures, greater summer moisture deficits, and negative anomalies in ENSO (La Niña), with greater effects of drought in some subpopulations (tree size, age and species). For example, in older stands (>250 years), larger and older trees were more likely to die than smaller and younger trees. Differences in tree mortality rates and sensitivity to climate among subpopulations that varied by stand type may lead to unexpected shifts in stand composition and structure.
Synthesis . A strong relationship between higher rates of tree mortality and warmer, drier summer climate conditions implies that climate warming will continue to increase background mortality rates in subalpine forests. Combined with increases in disturbances and declining frequency of moist‐cool years suitable for seedling establishment, increasing rates of tree mortality have the potential to drive declines in subalpine tree populations. -
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Abstract Ecological restoration is beneficial to ecological communities in this era of large‐scale landscape change and ecological disruption. However, restoration outcomes are notoriously variable, which makes fine‐scale decision‐making challenging. This is true for restoration efforts that follow large fires, which are increasingly common as the climate changes.
Post‐fire restoration efforts, like tree planting and seeding have shown mixed success, though the causes of the variation in restoration outcomes remain unclear. Abiotic factors such as elevation and fire severity, as well as biotic factors, such as residual canopy cover and abundance of competitive understorey grasses, can vary across a burned area and may all influence the success of restoration efforts to re‐establish trees following forest fires.
We examined the effect of these factors on the early seedling establishment of a tree species—māmane (
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Methods We analysed information on growth, survival, seed rain and seedling recruitment for 30 woody species in the LFDP. In addition, we compiled data on leaf, seed and wood functional traits that capture the main ecological strategies for plants. We used this information to identify the main axes of demographic variation for this forest community and evaluate shifts in community-weighted means for traits from 2000 to 2016.
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We found significant effects of LTH‐mammal exclusion on seedling survival contingent upon the protection of forests at the landscape level and forest stage. After 26 months, survival differences between LTH‐mammal exclusion and non‐exclusion treatments were greater in protected than unprotected landscapes. Additionally, plant species' traits were related to the LTH‐mammals' differential effects, as LTH‐mammals reduced the survival of seedlings of larger‐seeded species the most. Overall, LTH‐mammals' effects translated into significant shifts in community composition as seedling communities inside and outside the exclosures diverged. Moreover, lower density and higher species diversity were found as early as 12 and 18 months outside than inside exclosures.
Synthesis and applications. Insight into the interactions between LTH‐mammals and seedling communities in forest regeneration can be instrumental in planning effective restoration efforts. We highlight the importance of landscape protection in seedling survival and the role of LTH‐mammals in promoting seedling diversity in mature forests but also in secondary successional forests. The findings suggest that conservation efforts and possibly trophic rewilding can be important approaches for preserving diversity and influencing the trajectory of secondary tropical forest succession. However, we also caution that an overabundance of LTH‐mammals may adversely impact the pace of forest succession due to their preference for large‐seeded species. Therefore, a comprehensive wildlife management plan is indispensable. Additionally, longer term studies on LTH‐mammals are necessary to understand the effects of temporal fluctuations that are undetected in short‐term studies.
