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1. Comparing the paleoclimates of northwestern and southwestern Madagascar during the late Holocene: Implications for the role of climate in megafaunal extinction

   Faina, P. ; Burns, S. J. ; Godfrey, L.R. ; Crowley, B.E. ; Scroxton, N. ; McGee, D. ; Sutherland, M.R. ; Ranivoharimanana, L. ( January 2021 , Malagasy nature)

   The relative importance of climate and humans in the disappearance of the Malagasy megafauna remains under debate. Data from southwestern Madagascar imply aridification contributed substantially to the late Holocene decline of the megafauna (the Aridification Hypothesis). Evidence for aridification includes carbon isotopes from tree rings, lacustrine charcoal concentrations and pollen assemblages, and changes in fossil vertebrate assemblages indicative of a local loss of pluvial conditions. In contrast, speleothem records from northwestern Madagascar suggest that megafaunal decline and habitat change resulted primarily from human activity including agropastoralism (the Subsistence Shift Hypothesis). Could there have been contrasting mechanisms of decline in different parts of Madagascar? Or are we lacking the precisely dated, high resolution records needed to fully understand the complex processes behind megafaunal decline? Reconciling these contrasting hypotheses requires additional climate records from southwestern Madagascar. We recovered a stalagmite (AF2) from Asafora Cave in the spiny thicket ecoregion, ~10 km from the southwest coast and just southeast of the Velondriake Marine Reserve. U-series and 14C dating of samples taken from the core of this stalagmite provide a highly precise chronology of the changes in hydroclimate and vegetation in this region over the past 3000 years. Speleothem stable oxygen and carbon isotope analyses provide insight into past rainfall variability and vegetation changes respectively. We compare these records with those for a stalagmite (AB2) from Anjohibe Cave in northwestern Madagascar. Lastly, odds ratio analyses of radiocarbon dates for extinct and extant subfossils allow us to describe and compare the temporal trajectories of megafaunal decline in the southwest and the northwest. Combined, these analyses allow us to test the Aridification Hypothesis for megafaunal extinction. The trajectories of megafaunal decline differed in northwestern and southwestern Madagascar. In the southwest, unlike the northwest, there is no evidence of decoupling of speleothem stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. Instead, habitat changes in the southwest were largely related to variation in hydroclimate (including a prolonged drought). The megafaunal collapse here occurred in tandem with the drought, and agropastoralism likely contributed to that demise only after the megafauna had already suffered drought-related population reduction. Our results offer some support for the Aridification Hypothesis, but with three caveats: first, that there was no island-wide aridification; second, that aridification likely impacted megafaunal decline only in the driest parts of Madagascar; and third, that aridification was not the sole factor promotingmegafaunal decline even in the dry southwest. A number of megafaunal species survived the prolonged drought of the first millennium, and then likely succumbed to the activities of agropastoralists. 

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2. Sedimentological and palaeoenvironmental study from Waregi Hill in the Hiwegi Formation (early Miocene) on Rusinga Island, Lake Victoria, Kenya

   https://doi.org/10.1111/sed.12762  

   Michel, Lauren A. ; Lehmann, Thomas ; Mcnulty, Kieran P. ; Driese, Steven G. ; Dunsworth, Holly ; Fox, David L. ; Harcourt‐Smith, William E. H. ; Jenkins, Kirsten ; Peppe, Daniel J. ; Kwiecien, ed., Ola ( September 2020 , Sedimentology)

   Palaeontological deposits on Rusinga Island, Lake Victoria, Kenya, provide a rich record of floral and faunal evolution in the early Neogene of East Africa. Yet, despite a wealth of available fossil material, previous palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from Rusinga have resulted in widely divergent results, ranging from closed forest to open woodland environments. Presented here is a detailed study of the sedimentology and fauna of the early Miocene Hiwegi Formation at Waregi Hill on Rusinga Island, Kenya. New sedimentological analyses demonstrate that the Hiwegi Formation records an environmental transition from the bottom to the top of the formation. Lower in the Hiwegi Formation, satin‐spar calcite after gypsum in siltstone deposits are interpreted as evidence for open hypersaline lakes. Moving up‐section, carbonate deposits – interpreted previously as evidence of aridity – are actually diagenetic calcite cements, which preserve root systems of trees, suggesting a more closed environment; further up‐section, the uppermost palaeosol layer contains abundant root traces and tree‐stump casts, previously reported as evidence of a closed‐canopy forest. These newly interpreted environmental differences are reflected by differences in faunal composition and abundance data from Hiwegi Formation fossil sites R1 and R3. Taken together, this work suggests that divergent palaeoenvironmental reconstructions in previous studies may have been informed by time‐averaging across multiple environments. Further, results demonstrate that during the early Miocene local or regional habitat heterogeneity already existed. Rusinga’s Hiwegi Formation varied both spatially and temporally, which challenges the interpretation that a broad forested environment stretched across the African continent during the early Neogene, transitioning later to predominately open landscapes that characterize the region today. This result has important implications for interpretations of the selective pressures faced by early Miocene fauna, including Rusinga Island’s well‐preserved fossil primates.

    

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3. Comparing the paleoclimates of northwestern and southwestern Madagascar during the late Holocene: implications for the role of climate in megafaunal extinction

   Faina, P. ; Burns, S.J. ; Godfrey, L.R. ; Crowley, B.E. ; Scroxton, N. ; McGee, D. ; Sutherland, M.R. ; Ranivoharimanana, L. ( December 2021 , Malagasy nature)

   The relative importance of climate and humans in the disappearance of the Malagasy megafauna remains under debate. Data from southwestern Madagascar imply aridification contributed substantially to the late Holocene decline of the megafauna (the Aridification Hypothesis). Evidence for aridification includes carbon isotopes from tree rings, lacustrine charcoal concentrations and pollen assemblages, and changes in fossil vertebrate assemblages indicative of a local loss of pluvial conditions. In contrast, speleothem records from northwestern Madagascar suggest that megafaunal decline and habitat change resulted primarily from human activity including agropastoralism (the Subsistence Shift Hypothesis). Could there have been contrasting mechanisms of decline in different parts of Madagascar? Or are we lacking the precisely dated, high resolution records needed to fully understand the complex processes behind megafaunal decline? Reconciling these contrasting hypotheses requires additional climate records from southwestern Madagascar. We recovered a stalagmite (AF2) from Asafora Cave in the spiny thicket ecoregion, ~10 km from the southwest coast and just southeast of the Velondriake Marine Reserve. U-series and 14C dating of samples taken from the core of this stalagmite provide a highly precise chronology of the changes in hydroclimate and vegetation in this region over the past 3000 years. Speleothem stable oxygen and carbon isotope analyses provide insight into past rainfall variability and vegetation changes respectively. We compare these records with those for a stalagmite (AB2) from Anjohibe Cave in northwestern Madagascar. Lastly, odds ratio analyses of radiocarbon dates for extinct and extant subfossils allow us to describe and compare the temporal trajectories of megafaunal decline in the southwest and the northwest. Combined, these analyses allow us to test the Aridification Hypothesis for megafaunal extinction. 

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4. Madagascar’s extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adf1466  

   Ralimanana, Hélène ; Perrigo, Allison L. ; Smith, Rhian J. ; Borrell, James S. ; Faurby, Søren ; Rajaonah, Mamy Tiana ; Randriamboavonjy, Tianjanahary ; Vorontsova, Maria S. ; Cooke, Robert S. ; Phelps, Leanne N. ; et al ( December 2022 , Science)

   BACKGROUND Madagascar is one of the world’s foremost biodiversity hotspots. Its unique assemblage of plants, animals, and fungi—the majority of which evolved on the island and occur nowhere else—is both diverse and threatened. After human arrival, the island’s entire megafauna became extinct, and large portions of the current flora and fauna may be on track for a similar fate. Conditions for the long-term survival of many Malagasy species are not currently met because of multiple anthropogenic threats. ADVANCES We review the extinction risk and threats to biodiversity in Madagascar, using available international assessment data as well as a machine learning analysis to predict the extinction risks and threats to plant species lacking assessments. Our compilation of global International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments shows that overexploitation alongside unsustainable agricultural practices affect 62.1 and 56.8% of vertebrate species, respectively, and each affects nearly 90% of all plant species. Other threats have a relatively minor effect today but are expected to increase in coming decades. Because only one-third (4652) of all Malagasy plant species have been formally assessed, we carried out a neural network analysis to predict the putative status and threats for 5887 unassessed species and to evaluate biases in current assessments. The percentage of plant species currently assessed as under threat is probably representative of actual numbers, except in the case of the ferns and lycophytes, where significantly more species are estimated to be threatened. We find that Madagascar is home to a disproportionately high number of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) species. This further highlights the urgency for evidence-based and effective in situ and ex situ conservation. Despite these alarming statistics and trends, we find that 10.4% of Madagascar’s land area is protected and that the network of protected areas (PAs) covers at least part of the range of 97.1% of terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates with known distributions (amphibians, freshwater fishes, reptiles, birds, and mammal species combined) and 67.7% of plant species (for threatened species, the percentages are 97.7% for vertebrates and 79.6% for plants). Complementary to this, ex situ collections hold 18% of vertebrate species and 23% of plant species. Nonetheless, there are still many threatened species that do not occur within PAs and are absent from ex situ collections, including one amphibian, three mammals, and seven reptiles, as well as 559 plants and more yet to be assessed. Based on our updated vegetation map, we find that the current PA network provides good coverage of the major habitats, particularly mangroves, spiny forest, humid forest, and tapia, but subhumid forest and grassland-woodland mosaic have very low areas under protection (5.7 and 1.8% respectively). OUTLOOK Madagascar is among the world’s poorest countries, and its biodiversity is a key resource for the sustainable future and well-being of its citizens. Current threats to Madagascar’s biodiversity are deeply rooted in historical and present social contexts, including widespread inequalities. We therefore propose five opportunities for action to further conservation in a just and equitable way. First, investment in conservation and restoration must be based on evidence and effectiveness and be tailored to meet future challenges through inclusive solutions. Second, expanded biodiversity monitoring, including increased dataset production and availability, is key. Third, improving the effectiveness of existing PAs—for example through community engagement, training, and income opportunities—is more important than creating new ones. Fourth, conservation and restoration should not focus solely on the PA network but should also include the surrounding landscapes and communities. And finally, conservation actions must address the root causes of biodiversity loss, including poverty and food insecurity. In the eyes of much of the world, Madagascar’s biodiversity is a unique global asset that needs saving; in the daily lives of many of the Malagasy people, it is a rapidly diminishing source of the most basic needs for subsistence. Protecting Madagascar’s biodiversity while promoting social development for its people is a matter of the utmost urgency Visual representation of five key opportunities for conserving and restoring Madagascar’s rapidly declining biodiversity identified in this Review. The dashed lines point to representative vegetation types where these recommendations could have tangible effects, but the opportunities are applicable across Madagascar. ILLUSTRATION: INESSA VOET 

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5. A multimillennial climatic context for the megafaunal extinctions in Madagascar and Mascarene Islands

   https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb2459  

   Li, Hanying ; Sinha, Ashish ; Anquetil André, Aurèle ; Spötl, Christoph ; Vonhof, Hubert B. ; Meunier, Arnaud ; Kathayat, Gayatri ; Duan, Pengzhen ; Voarintsoa, Ny Riavo ; Ning, Youfeng ; et al ( October 2020 , Science Advances)

   null (Ed.)

   Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands of Mauritius and Rodrigues underwent catastrophic ecological and landscape transformations, which virtually eliminated their entire endemic vertebrate megafauna during the past millennium. These ecosystem changes have been alternately attributed to either human activities, climate change, or both, but parsing their relative importance, particularly in the case of Madagascar, has proven difficult. Here, we present a multimillennial (approximately the past 8000 years) reconstruction of the southwest Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability using speleothems from the island of Rodrigues, located ∼1600 km east of Madagascar. The record shows a recurring pattern of hydroclimate variability characterized by submillennial-scale drying trends, which were punctuated by decadal-to-multidecadal megadroughts, including during the late Holocene. Our data imply that the megafauna of the Mascarenes and Madagascar were resilient, enduring repeated past episodes of severe climate stress, but collapsed when a major increase in human activity occurred in the context of a prominent drying trend. 

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