In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through
these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology
developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other
directly transmitted infectious diseases.
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Spatial Modeling and Analysis of Human Traffic and Infectious Virus Spread in Community Networks
The use of network models to study the spread of infectious diseases is gaining increasing interests. They allow the flexibility to represent epidemic systems as networks of components with complex and interconnected structures. However, most of previous studies are based on networks of individuals as nodes and their social relationships (e.g., friendship, workplace connections) as links during the virus spread process. Notably, the transmission and spread of infectious viruses are more pertinent to human dynamics (e.g., their movements and interactions with others) in the spatial environment. This paper presents a novel network-based simulation model of human traffic and virus spread in community networks. We represent spatial points of interests (POI) as nodes where human subjects interact and perform activities, while edges connect these POIs to form a community network. Specifically, we derive the spatial network from the geographical information systems (GIS) data to provide a detailed representation of the underlying community network, on which human subjects perform activities and form traffics that impact the process of virus transmission and spread. The proposed framework is evaluated and validated in a community of university campus. Experimental results showed that the proposed simulation model is capable of describing interactive human activities at an individual level, as well as capturing the spread dynamics of infectious diseases. This framework can be extended to a wide variety of infectious diseases and shows strong potentials to aid the design of intervention policies for epidemic control.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2026875
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10317302
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- 2021 43rd Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine & Biology Society (EMBC)
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other directly transmitted infectious diseases.more » « less
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Abstract Mass testing is essential for identifying infected individuals during an epidemic and allowing healthy individuals to return to normal social activities. However, testing capacity is often insufficient to meet global health needs, especially during newly emerging epidemics. Dorfman’s method, a classic group testing technique, helps reduce the number of tests required by pooling the samples of multiple individuals into a single sample for analysis. Dorfman’s method does not consider the time dynamics or limits on testing capacity involved in infection detection, and it assumes that individuals are infected independently, ignoring community correlations. To address these limitations, we present an adaptive group testing (AGT) strategy based on graph partitioning, which divides a physical contact network into subgraphs (groups of individuals) and assigns testing priorities based on the social contact characteristics of each subgraph. Our AGT aims to maximize the number of infected individuals detected and minimize the number of tests required. After each testing round (perhaps on a daily basis), the testing priority is increased for each neighboring group of known infected individuals. We also present an enhanced infectious disease transmission model that simulates the dynamic spread of a pathogen and evaluate our AGT strategy using the simulation results. When applied to 13 social contact networks, AGT demonstrates significant performance improvements compared to Dorfman’s method and its variations. Our AGT strategy requires fewer tests overall, reduces disease spread, and retains robustness under changes in group size, testing capacity, and other parameters. Testing plays a crucial role in containing and mitigating pandemics by identifying infected individuals and helping to prevent further transmission in families and communities. By identifying infected individuals and helping to prevent further transmission in families and communities, our AGT strategy can have significant implications for public health, providing guidance for policymakers trying to balance economic activity with the need to manage the spread of infection.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/EMBC46164.2021.9630798
