Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are an inevitable consequence of galaxy mergers. At sub-parsec separations, they are practically impossible to resolve and the most promising technique is to search for quasars with periodic variability. However, searches for quasar periodicity in time-domain data are challenging due to the stochastic variability of quasars. In this paper, we used Bayesian methods to disentangle periodic SMBHB signals from intrinsic damped random walk (DRW) variability in AGN light curves. We simulated a wide variety of realistic DRW and DRW+sine light curves. Their observed properties are modeled after the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) and expected properties of the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Through a careful analysis of parameter estimation and Bayesian model selection, we investigated the range of parameter space for which binary systems can be detected. We also examined which DRW signals can mimic periodicity and be falsely classified as binary candidates. We found that periodic signals are more easily detectable if the period is short or the amplitude of the signal is large compared to the contribution of the DRW noise. We saw similar detection rates both in the CRTS and LSST-like simulations, while the false detection rate depends on the quality of the data and is minimal in LSST. Our idealized simulations provide an excellent way to uncover the intrinsic limitations in quasar periodicity searches and set the stage for future searches for SMBHBs.
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A Quasar-based Supermassive Black Hole Binary Population Model: Implications for the Gravitational Wave Background
The nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) is believed to be dominated by GW emission from supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). Observations of several dual-active galactic nuclei (AGN) strongly suggest a link between AGN and SMBHBs, given that these dual-AGN systems will eventually form bound binary pairs. Here we develop an exploratory SMBHB population model based on empirically constrained quasar populations, allowing us to decompose the GWB amplitude into an underlying distribution of SMBH masses, SMBHB number density, and volume enclosing the GWB. Our approach also allows us to self-consistently predict the number of local SMBHB systems from the GWB amplitude. Interestingly, we find the local number density of SMBHBs implied by the common-process signal in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set to be roughly five times larger than previously predicted by other models. We also find that at most ∼25% of SMBHBs can be associated with quasars. Furthermore, our quasar-based approach predicts ≳95% of the GWB signal comes from
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10361592
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.3847
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 924
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 93
- Size(s):
- ["Article No. 93"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05 yr period and low redshift (∼0.02) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it to simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity
e 0< 0.5 and the symmetric mass ratioη > 0.1. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of 88.1 ± 3.7 ns for the Earth term-only and 81.74 ± 0.86 ns for the Earth+pulsar term searches fore 0< 0.5 andη > 0.1. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are (1.98 ± 0.05) × 109and (1.81 ± 0.01) × 109M ☉. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations. -
Abstract Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are an inevitable consequence of galaxy mergers. At sub-parsec separations, they are practically impossible to resolve, and the most promising technique is to search for quasars with periodic variability. However, searches for quasar periodicity in time-domain data are challenging due to the stochastic variability of quasars. In this paper, we used Bayesian methods to disentangle periodic SMBHB signals from intrinsic damped random walk (DRW) variability in active galactic nuclei light curves. We simulated a wide variety of realistic DRW and DRW+sine light curves. Their observed properties are modeled after the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) and expected properties of the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Through a careful analysis of parameter estimation and Bayesian model selection, we investigated the range of parameter space for which binary systems can be detected. We also examined which DRW signals can mimic periodicity and be falsely classified as binary candidates. We found that periodic signals are more easily detectable if the period is short or the amplitude of the signal is large compared to the contribution of the DRW noise. We saw similar detection rates both in the CRTS and LSST-like simulations, while the false-detection rate depends on the quality of the data and is minimal in LSST. Our idealized simulations provide an excellent way to uncover the intrinsic limitations in quasar periodicity searches and set the stage for future searches for SMBHBs.more » « less
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ABSTRACT We examine the effect of supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation choice on the inferred SMBH mass population since redshift z ∼ 3. To make robust predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB), we must have a solid understanding of the underlying SMBH demographics. Using the SDSS and 3D-HST + CANDELS surveys for 0 < z < 3, we evaluate the inferred SMBH masses from two SMBH–galaxy scaling relations: MBH–Mbulge and MBH–σ. Our SMBH mass functions come directly from stellar mass measurements for MBH–Mbulge, and indirectly from stellar mass and galaxy radius measurements along with the galaxy mass fundamental plane for MBH–σ. We find that there is a substantial difference in predictions especially for z > 1, and this difference increases out to z = 3. In particular, we find that using velocity dispersion predicts a greater number of SMBHs with masses greater than 109 M⊙. The GWB that pulsar timing arrays find evidence for is higher in amplitude than expected from GWB predictions which rely on high-redshift extrapolations of local SMBH mass–galaxy scaling relations. The difference in SMBH demographics resulting from different scaling relations may be the origin for the mismatch between the signal amplitude and predictions. Generally, our results suggest that a deeper understanding of the potential redshift evolution of these relations is needed if we are to draw significant insight from their predictions at z > 1.
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Abstract We investigate the group-scale environment of 15 luminous quasars (luminosity
L 3000> 1046erg s−1) from the Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS) at redshiftz ≈ 1. Using the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer integral field spectrograph on the Very Large Telescope, we conduct a deep galaxy redshift survey in the CUBS quasar fields to identify group members and measure the physical properties of individual galaxies and galaxy groups. We find that the CUBS quasars reside in diverse environments. The majority (11 out of 15) of the CUBS quasars reside in overdense environments with typical halo masses exceeding 1013M ⊙, while the remaining quasars reside in moderate-size galaxy groups. No correlation is observed between overdensity and redshift, black hole (BH) mass, or luminosity. Radio-loud quasars (5 out of 15 CUBS quasars) are more likely to be in overdense environments than their radio-quiet counterparts in the sample, consistent with the mean trends from previous statistical observations and clustering analyses. Nonetheless, we also observe radio-loud quasars in moderate groups and radio-quiet quasars in overdense environments, indicating a large scatter in the connection between radio properties and environment. We find that the most UV luminous quasars might be outliers in the stellar mass-to-halo mass relations or may represent departures from the standard single-epoch BH relations.
