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1. Short-interval fires increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest as fire self-regulation decays across forest types

   https://doi.org/doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6353983  

   Buma, B.; Hayes, K.; Weiss, S.; Lucash, M. (March 2022, Scientific report)

   Climate drivers are increasingly creating conditions conducive to higher frequency fires. In the coniferous boreal forest, the world’s largest terrestrial biome, fires are historically common but relatively infrequent. Post-fire, regenerating forests are generally resistant to burning (strong fire self-regulation), favoring millennial coniferous resilience. However, short intervals between fires are associated with rapid, threshold-like losses of resilience and changes to broadleaf or shrub communities, impacting carbon content, habitat, and other ecosystem services. Fires burning the same location 2 + times comprise approximately 4% of all Alaskan boreal fire events since 1984, and the fraction of short-interval events (< 20 years between fires) is increasing with time. While there is strong resistance to burning for the first decade after a fire, from 10 to 20 years post-fire resistance appears to decline. Reburning is biased towards coniferous forests and in areas with seasonally variable precipitation, and that proportion appears to be increasing with time, suggesting continued forest shifts as changing climatic drivers overwhelm the resistance of early postfire landscapes to reburning. As area burned in large fire years of ~ 15 years ago begin to mature, there is potential for more widespread shifts, which should be evaluated closely to understand finer grained patterns within this regional trend. 

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2. Short interval fires increasing in the boreal forest as fire self-regulation decays, especially in drier coniferous forest landscapes

   Buma, Brian; Hayes, Katherine; Weiss, Shelby; Lucash, Melissa (March 2022, Scientific reports)

   Climate drivers are increasingly creating conditions conducive to higher frequency fires. In the coniferous boreal forest, the world’s largest terrestrial biome, fires are historically common but relatively infrequent. Post-fire, regenerating forests are generally resistant to burning (strong fire self-regulation), favoring millennial coniferous resilience. However, short intervals between fires are associated with rapid, threshold-like losses of resilience and changes to broadleaf or shrub communities, impacting carbon content, habitat, and other ecosystem services. Fires burning the same location 2 + times comprise approximately 4% of all Alaskan boreal fire events since 1984, and the fraction of short-interval events (< 20 years between fires) is increasing with time. While there is strong resistance to burning for the first decade after a fire, from 10 to 20 years post-fire resistance appears to decline. Reburning is biased towards coniferous forests and in areas with seasonally variable precipitation, and that proportion appears to be increasing with time, suggesting continued forest shifts as changing climatic drivers overwhelm the resistance of early postfire landscapes to reburning. As area burned in large fire years of ~ 15 years ago begin to mature, there is potential for more widespread shifts, which should be evaluated closely to understand finer grained patterns within this regional trend. 

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3. Increasing wildfire frequency decreases carbon storage and leads to regeneration failure in Alaskan boreal forests

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-025-00390-3  

   Walker, Xanthe J; Mack, Michelle C; Black, Betsy; Dean, Jacqueline; Kemper, Lauren F; Potter, Stefano; Rogers, Brendan M; Truettner, Charles M (October 2025, Fire Ecology)

   Abstract BackgroundThe increasing size, severity, and frequency of wildfires is one of the most rapid ways climate warming could alter the structure and function of high-latitude ecosystems. Historically, boreal forests in western North America had fire return intervals (FRI) of 70–130 years, but shortened FRIs are becoming increasingly common under extreme weather conditions. Here, we quantified pre-fire and post-fire C pools and C losses and assessed post-fire seedling regeneration in long (> 70 years), intermediate (30–70 years), and short (< 30 years) FRIs, and triple (three fires in < 70 years) burns. As boreal forests store a significant portion of the global terrestrial carbon (C) pool, understanding the impacts of shortened FRIs on these ecosystems is critical for predicting the global C balance and feedbacks to climate. ResultsUsing a spatially extensive dataset of 555 plots from 31 separate fires in Interior Alaska, our study demonstrates that shortened FRIs decrease the C storage capacity of boreal forests through loss of legacy C and regeneration failure. Total wildfire C emissions were similar among FRI classes, ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 kg C m⁻². However, shortened FRIs lost proportionally more of their pre-fire C pools, resulting in substantially lower post-fire C pools than long FRIs. Shortened FRIs also resulted in the combustion of legacy C, defined as C that escaped combustion in one or more previous fires. We found that post-fire successional trajectories were impacted by FRI, with ~ 65% of short FRIs and triple burns experiencing regeneration failure. ConclusionsOur study highlights the structural and functional vulnerability of boreal forests to increasing fire frequency. Shortened FRIs and the combustion of legacy C can shift boreal ecosystems from a net C sink or neutral to a net C source to the atmosphere and increase the risk of transitions to non-forested states. These changes could have profound implications for the boreal C-climate feedback and underscore the need for adaptive management strategies that prioritize the structural and functional resilience of boreal forest ecosystems to expected increases in fire frequency. 

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4. Increasing fire and the decline of fire adapted black spruce in the boreal forest

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024872118  

   Baltzer, Jennifer L.; Day, Nicola J.; Walker, Xanthe J.; Greene, David; Mack, Michelle C.; Alexander, Heather D.; Arseneault, Dominique; Barnes, Jennifer; Bergeron, Yves; Boucher, Yan; et al (October 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years. 

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5. Increasing wildfire frequency decreases carbon storage and leads to regeneration failure in boreal forests 2015-2023

   https://doi.org/10.18739/a2bv79x68  

   Walker, Xanthe (January 2025, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Background: The increasing size, severity, and frequency of wildfires is one of the most rapid ways climate warming could alter the structure and function of high-latitude ecosystems. Historically, boreal forests in western North America had fire return intervals (FRI) of 70-130 years, but shortened FRIs are becoming increasingly common under extreme weather conditions. Here, we quantified pre-fire and post-fire C pools and C losses and assessed post-fire seedling regeneration in long (>70 years), intermediate (30 -70 years), and short (<30 years) FRIs, and triple (three fires in <70 years) burns. As boreal forests store a significant portion of the global terrestrial carbon (C) pool, understanding the impacts of shortened FRIs on these ecosystems is critical for predicting the global C balance and feedbacks to climate. Results: Using a spatially extensive dataset of 555 plots from 31 separate fire scars in Interior Alaska, our study demonstrates that shortened FRIs decrease the C storage capacity of boreal forests through loss of legacy C and regeneration failure. Total wildfire C emissions were similar among FRI classes, ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 kilograms Carbon per square meter (kg C m-2). However, shortened FRIs lost proportionally more of their pre-fire C pools, resulting in substantially lower post-fire C pools than long FRIs. Shortened FRIs also resulted in the combustion of legacy C, defined as C that escaped combustion in one or more previous fires. We found that post-fire successional trajectories were impacted by FRI, with ~ 65% of short FRIs and triple burns experiencing regeneration failure. Conclusions: Our study highlights the structural and functional vulnerability of boreal forests to increasing fire frequency. Shortened FRIs and the combustion of legacy C can shift boreal ecosystems from a net C sink or neutral to a net C source to the atmosphere and increase the risk of transitions to non-forested states. These changes have profound implications for the boreal C-climate feedback and could accelerate climate warming. Our findings underscore the need for adaptive management strategies that prioritize the structural and functional resilience of boreal forest ecosystems to expected increases in fire frequency. 

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