Treating disease according to precision health requires the individualization of therapeutic solutions as a cardinal step that is part of a process that typically depends on multiple factors. The starting point is the collection and assembly of data over time to assess the patient’s health status and monitor response to therapy. Radiomics is a very important component of this process. Its main goal is implementing a protocol to quantify the image informative contents by first mining and then extracting the most representative features. Further analysis aims to detect potential disease phenotypes through signs and marks of heterogeneity. As multimodal images hinge on various data sources, and these can be integrated with treatment plans and follow-up information, radiomics is naturally centered on dynamically monitoring disease progression and/or the health trajectory of patients. However, radiomics creates critical needs too. A concise list includes: (a) successful harmonization of intra/inter-modality radiomic measurements to facilitate the association with other data domains (genetic, clinical, lifestyle aspects, etc.); (b) ability of data science to revise model strategies and analytics tools to tackle multiple data types and structures (electronic medical records, personal histories, hospitalization data, genomic from various specimens, imaging, etc.) and to offer data-agnostic solutions for patient outcomes prediction; (c) and model validation with independent datasets to ensure generalization of results, clinical value of new risk stratifications, and support to clinical decisions for highly individualized patient management.
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Integrating landmark modeling framework and machine learning algorithms for dynamic prediction of tuberculosis treatment outcomes
This study aims to establish an informative dynamic prediction model of treatment outcomes using follow-up records of tuberculosis (TB) patients, which can timely detect cases when the current treatment plan may not be effective.
We used 122 267 follow-up records from 17 958 new cases of pulmonary TB in the Republic of Moldova. A dynamic prediction framework integrating landmark modeling and machine learning algorithms was designed to predict patient outcomes during the course of treatment. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated to evaluate performance of the model at critical time points. New measures were defined to determine when follow-up laboratory tests should be conducted to obtain most informative results.
The random-forest algorithm performed better than support vector machine and penalized multinomial logistic regression models for predicting TB treatment outcomes. For all 3 outcome classes (ie, cured, not cured, and died after 24 months following treatment initiation), sensitivity and PPV of prediction models improved as more follow-up information was collected. Specifically, sensitivity and PPV increased from 0.55 to 0.84 and from 0.32 to 0.88, respectively, for the not cured class.
The dynamic prediction framework utilizes longitudinal laboratory test results to predict patient outcomes at various landmarks. Sputum culture and smear results are among the important variables for prediction; however, the most recent sputum result is not always the most informative one. This framework can potentially facilitate a more effective treatment monitoring program and provide insights for policymakers toward improved guidelines on follow-up tests.
- Award ID(s):
- 1920920
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10474139
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association
- Volume:
- 29
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1527-974X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 900-908
- Size(s):
- ["p. 900-908"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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