Abstract This paper examines the trends in hot summer days for the Pacific Northwest in observations and a regional climate model ensemble. Hot days are identified by the temperature threshold for several percentile values computed over 10-year intervals (85, 90, 95, and absolute maximum) to differentiate heat events of different intensities and are compared to the median temperature (50 th percentile). For the stations analyzed, the observed rate of warming during hot days is not statistically different from the warming rate of median days since the 1950s. However, for projections to 2100, hot days show a statistically significant increase in the warming rate of the hottest days compared to the warming rate for median days. Depending on location, the 95 th percentile daily maximum temperature shows a warming rate of up to 0.2°C per decade above the median warming rate. The divergence in the trends of median and extreme temperature shows substantial regional variation depending on local terrain and coastlines. The warming trend during hot days is related to the unique circulation patterns during heat events, which respond to different feedbacks and amplifying effects in the land-atmosphere system from those that prevail during typical days. The regional climate model simulations are taken from an ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations forced by 12 global climate model simulations from the 5 th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using the RCP8.5 emissions scenario and 12-km grid spacing.
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The Mesoscale Response to Global Warming over the Pacific Northwest Evaluated Using a Regional Climate Model Ensemble
Abstract This paper describes the downscaling of an ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 12-km grid spacing over the period 1970–2099, examining the mesoscale impacts of global warming as well as the uncertainties in its mesoscale expression. The RCP8.5 emissions scenario was used to drive both global and regional climate models. The regional climate modeling system reduced bias and improved realism for a historical period, in contrast to substantial errors for the GCM simulations driven by lack of resolution. The regional climate ensemble indicated several mesoscale responses to global warming that were not apparent in the global model simulations, such as enhanced continental interior warming during both winter and summer as well as increasing winter precipitation trends over the windward slopes of regional terrain, with declining trends to the lee of major barriers. During summer there is general drying, except to the east of the Cascades. The 1 April snowpack declines are large over the lower-to-middle slopes of regional terrain, with small snowpack increases over the lower elevations of the interior. Snow-albedo feedbacks are very different between GCM and RCM projections, with the GCMs producing large, unphysical areas of snowpack loss and enhanced warming. Daily average winds change little under global warming, but maximum easterly winds decline modestly, driven by a preferential sea level pressure decline over the continental interior. Although temperatures warm continuously over the domain after approximately 2010, with slight acceleration over time, occurrences of temperature extremes increase rapidly during the second half of the twenty-first century. Significance Statement This paper provides a unique high-resolution view of projected climate change over the Pacific Northwest and does so using an ensemble of regional climate models, affording a look at the uncertainties in local impacts of global warming. The paper examines regional meteorological processes influenced by global warming and provides guidance for adaptation and preparation.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10327405
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 35
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2035 to 2053
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0061.1
