The massively available data about user engagement with online information service systems provides a gold mine about users' latent intents. It calls for quantitative user behavior modeling. In this paper, we study the problem by looking into users' sequential interactive behaviors. Inspired by the concepts of episodic memory and semantic memory in cognitive psychology, which describe how users' behaviors are differently influenced by past experience, we propose a Long- and Short-term Hawkes Process model. It models the short-term dependency between users' actions within a period of time via a multi-dimensional Hawkes process and the long-term dependency between actions across different periods of time via a one dimensional Hawkes process. Experiments on two real-world user activity log datasets (one from an e-commerce website and one from a MOOC website) demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in capturing the temporal dependency between actions in a sequence of user behaviors. It directly leads to improved accuracy in predicting the type and the time of the next action. Interestingly, the inferred dependency between actions in a sequence sheds light on the underlying user intent behind direct observations and provides insights for downstream applications.
Not Registered? Please Sign Up First: A Randomized Field Experiment on the Ex Ante Registration Request
Online commerce websites often request users to register in the online shopping process. Recognizing the challenges of user registration, many websites opt to delay their registration request until the end of the conversion funnel (i.e., ex post registration request). Our study explores an alternative approach by asking users to register with the website at the beginning of their shopping journey (i.e., ex ante registration request). Guided by a stylized analytical model, we conducted a large-scale randomized field experiment in partnership with an online retailer in the United States to examine how the ex ante request affects users’ registration decisions, short-term customer conversions, and long-term purchase behaviors. Specifically, we randomly assigned the new users in the website’s incoming traffic to one of two experimental groups: one with an ex ante registration request preceding the ex post request (treatment) and the other with only an ex post registration request (control). Our results show that the ex ante request leads to an increased probability of user registration; that is, the users in the treatment group, on average, are 58.08% relatively more likely to register with the website than those in the control group. Furthermore, the ex ante request leads to significant increases in more »
- Award ID(s):
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- Journal Name:
- Information Systems Research
- Page Range or eLocation-ID:
- 914 to 931
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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