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The predator-permanence hypothesis predicts that as hydroperiod increases in lentic ecosystems, biotic interactions—mainly predation—replace physical factors like drying as the main determinant of community structure and population dynamics. We propose that the same transition occurs over time in seasonally flooded ecosystems that are connected to permanent water bodies. To test for evidence of successional changes that are similar to spatial changes in the relative importance of drying and predation, we used a 12-y time series of snail density, predator density, and water depth at 4 sites arranged along a nutrient gradient in a subtropical, seasonally flooded wetland, the Florida Everglades, USA. The rate of change in snail population size was negatively correlated with their density at all 4 sites, suggesting that density-dependent factors such as resource limitation regulate snail dynamics. The strength of the relationship varied among sites such that when water depth changes were less important, snail population size was more important in predicting changes in snail population size. At the site that consistently had the greatest snail density, crayfish density negatively affected the rate of snail population change, suggesting that crayfish predation may limit snail population growth in areas with more or higher-quality resources that support larger snail populations. Tethering studies were also conducted, which revealed higher snail mortality in the wet season, primarily because crushing predators (e.g., molluscivorous fishes) were more common at that time and added to the chronic mortality by entry-based predators (e.g., crayfish, which access snails through their aperture). In summary, 3 of the sites resembled temporary or permanent fishless ponds where snail populations were primarily structured by abiotic factors, intraspecific competition, and invertebrate predators (e.g., crayfish) during the wet season, whereas 1 site showed evidence that snail populations were also influenced by molluscivorous fish. This temporal change in importance of water permanence factors to fish that affected population dynamics supports the spatial pattern proposed by the predator-permanence hypothesis.
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Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
Abstract The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1761612
- PAR ID:
- 10330980
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28231-w
