More Like this

1. Persistence of southern California giant kelp beds and alongshore variation in nutrient exposure driven by seasonal upwelling and internal waves

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1007789  

   Leichter, James J. ; Ladah, Lydia B. ; Parnell, P. Ed ; Stokes, M. Dale ; Costa, Matthew T. ; Fumo, James ; Dayton, Paul K. ( March 2023 , Frontiers in Marine Science)

   Kelp beds provide significant ecosystem services and socioeconomic benefits globally, and prominently in coastal zones of the California Current. Their distributions and abundance, however, vary greatly over space and time. Here, we describe long-term patterns of Giant Kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) sea surface canopy area off the coast of San Diego County from 1983 through 2019 along with recent patterns of water column nitrate (NO₃^-) exposure inferred fromin situtemperature data in 2014 and 2015 at sites spanning 30 km of the coastline near San Diego California, USA. Site-specific patterns of kelp persistence and resilience were associated with ocean and climate dynamics, with total sea surface kelp canopy area varying approximately 33-fold over the almost 4 decades (min 0.34 km²in 1984; max 11.25 km²in 2008, median 4.79 km²). Site-normalized canopy areas showed that recent kelp persistence since 2014 was greater at Point Loma and La Jolla, the largest kelp beds off California, than at the much smaller kelp bed off Cardiff. NO₃^-exposure was estimated from an 11-month time series ofin situwater column temperature collected in 2014 and 2015 at 4 kelp beds, using a relationship between temperature and NO₃^-concentration previously established for the region. The vertical position of the 14.5°C isotherm, an indicator of the main thermocline and nutricline, varied across the entire water column at semidiurnal to seasonal frequencies. We use a novel means of quantifying estimated water column NO₃^-exposure integrated through time (mol-days m^-2) adapted from degree days approaches commonly used to characterize thermal exposures. Water column integrated NO₃^-exposure binned by quarters of the time series showed strong seasonal differences with highest exposure in Mar - May 2015, lowest exposure in Sep - Dec 2014, with consistently highest exposure off Point Loma. The water column integrated NO₃^-signal was filtered to provide estimates of the contribution to total nitrate exposure from high frequency variability (ƒ >= 1 cycle 30 hr^-1) associated predominantly with internal waves, and low frequency variability driven predominantly by seasonal upwelling. While seasonal upwelling accounted for > 90% of NO₃^-exposure across the full year, during warm periods when seasonal upwelling was reduced or absent and NO₃^-exposure was low overall, the proportion due to internal waves increased markedly to 84 to 100% of the site-specific total exposure. The high frequency variability associated with internal waves may supply critical nutrient availability during anomalously warm periods. Overall, these analyses support a hypothesis that differences in NO₃^-exposure among sites due to seasonal upwelling and higher frequency internal wave forcing contribute to spatial patterns in Giant Kelp persistence in southern California. The study period includes anomalously warm surface conditions and the marine heatwave associated with the “Pacific Warm Blob” superimposed on the seasonal thermal signal and corresponding to the onset of a multi-year decline in kelp canopy area and marked differences in kelp persistence among sites. Our analysis suggests that, particularly during periods of warm surface conditions, variation in NO₃^-exposure associated with processes occurring at higher frequencies, including internal waves can be a significant source of NO₃^-exposure to kelp beds in this region. The patterns described here also offer a view of the potential roles of seasonal and higher frequency nutrient dynamics for Giant Kelp persistence in southern California under continuing ocean surface warming and increasing frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves.

    

   more » « less
2. The importance of making testable predictions: A cautionary tale

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0236541  

   Choi, Emma S. ; Saberski, Erik ; Lorimer, Tom ; Smith, Cameron ; Kandage-don, Unduwap ; Burton, Ronald S. ; Sugihara, George ( December 2020 , PLOS ONE)

   Belgrano, Andrea (Ed.)

   We found a startling correlation (Pearson ρ > 0.97) between a single event in daily sea surface temperatures each spring, and peak fish egg abundance measurements the following summer, in 7 years of approximately weekly fish egg abundance data collected at Scripps Pier in La Jolla California. Even more surprising was that this event-based result persisted despite the large and variable number of fish species involved (up to 46), and the large and variable time interval between trigger and response (up to ~3 months). To mitigate potential over-fitting, we made an out-of-sample prediction beyond the publication process for the peak summer egg abundance observed at Scripps Pier in 2020 (available on bioRxiv). During peer-review, the prediction failed, and while it would be tempting to explain this away as a result of the record-breaking toxic algal bloom that occurred during the spring (9x higher concentration of dinoflagellates than ever previously recorded), a re-examination of our methodology revealed a potential source of over-fitting that had not been evaluated for robustness. This cautionary tale highlights the importance of testable true out-of-sample predictions of future values that cannot (even accidentally) be used in model fitting, and that can therefore catch model assumptions that may otherwise escape notice. We believe that this example can benefit the current push towards ecology as a predictive science and support the notion that predictions should live and die in the public domain, along with the models that made them. 

   more » « less
3. The beach‐spawning California grunion Leuresthes tenuis eats and digests conspecific eggs

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.13734  

   Santos, Allison J. ; Frederick, Alyssa R. ; Higgins, Benjamin A. ; Carrillo, Andres ; Carter, Ariel L. ; Dickson, Kathryn A. ; German, Donovan P. ; Horn, Michael H. ( September 2018 , Journal of Fish Biology)

   Apparent egg cannibalism was investigated in the beach‐spawning California grunionLeuresthes tenuis. Three hypotheses were tested to determine whetherL. tenuisregularly consumes and efficiently digests conspecific eggs. First, examination of the gut contents of adults collected at four spawning sites over two seasons showed that the intestines of most fish from all the sites (57–87%,n≥ 30, each site) containedL. tenuiseggs. The two other hypotheses focused on digestion of the eggs. First, the force required to crush cannibalized eggs was significantly less than that for uncannibalized eggs (fertilized or unfertilized), indicating that ingestion weakens the egg chorions. Second, conspecific eggs fed to fish held in the laboratory visibly degraded as they passed through the gut. The eggs lostc. half of their protein content and about two‐thirds of their lipid content as they passed from proximal to distal regions of the gut, indicating that digestion occurred. Digestive enzyme activities of the gut further confirmed thatL. tenuiscan break down the contents of ingested eggs. Trypsin activity decreased and aminopeptidase activity increased posteriorly along the gut, whereas amylase and lipase activities exhibited less clear patterns by gut region. As far as is known, this study is the first to show thatL. tenuisis an egg cannibal.

    

   more » « less
4. Temporal, Environmental, and Biological Drivers of the Mucosal Microbiome in a Wild Marine Fish, Scomber japonicus

   https://doi.org/10.1128/mSphere.00401-20  

   Minich, Jeremiah J. ; Petrus, Semar ; Michael, Julius D. ; Michael, Todd P. ; Knight, Rob ; Allen, Eric E. ; McMahon, Katherine ( June 2020 , mSphere)

   ABSTRACT Changing ocean conditions driven by anthropogenic activities may have a negative impact on fisheries by increasing stress and disease. To understand how environment and host biology drives mucosal microbiomes in a marine fish, we surveyed five body sites (gill, skin, digesta, gastrointestinal tract [GI], and pyloric ceca) from 229 Pacific chub mackerel, Scomber japonicus , collected across 38 time points spanning 1 year from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Pier (La Jolla, CA). Mucosal sites had unique microbial communities significantly different from the surrounding seawater and sediment communities with over 10 times more total diversity than seawater. The external surfaces of skin and gill were more similar to seawater, while digesta was more similar to sediment. Alpha and beta diversity of the skin and gill was explained by environmental and biological factors, specifically, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a , and fish age, consistent with an exposure gradient relationship. We verified that seasonal microbial changes were not confounded by regional migration of chub mackerel subpopulations by nanopore sequencing a 14,769-bp region of the 16,568-bp mitochondria across all temporal fish specimens. A cosmopolitan pathogen, Photobacterium damselae , was prevalent across multiple body sites all year but highest in the skin, GI, and digesta between June and September, when the ocean is warmest. The longitudinal fish microbiome study evaluates the extent to which the environment and host biology drives mucosal microbial ecology and establishes a baseline for long-term surveys linking environment stressors to mucosal health of wild marine fish. IMPORTANCE Pacific chub mackerel, Scomber japonicus , are one of the largest and most economically important fisheries in the world. The fish is harvested for both human consumption and fish meal. Changing ocean conditions driven by anthropogenic stressors like climate change may negatively impact fisheries. One mechanism for this is through disease. As waters warm and chemistry changes, the microbial communities associated with fish may change. In this study, we performed a holistic analysis of all mucosal sites on the fish over a 1-year time series to explore seasonal variation and to understand the environmental drivers of the microbiome. Understanding seasonality in the fish microbiome is also applicable to aquaculture production for producers to better understand and predict when disease outbreaks may occur based on changing environmental conditions in the ocean. 

   more » « less
5. Walleye spawning, ice phenology, and covariate data for Upper Midwestern Lakes: 1939-2019

   https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/f7a55f08dfe2a9514067e5c633313ef4  

   Feiner, Zachary S ; Barta, Martha ; Sass, Greg ; Reed, Jeffrey ; Cichosz, Thomas ; Shultz, Aaron ; Luehring, Mark ( January 2023 , Environmental Data Initiative)

   The phenology of critical biological events in aquatic ecosystems are rapidly shifting due to climate change. Growing variability in phenological cues can increase the likelihood of trophic mismatches, causing recruitment failures in commercially, culturally, and recreationally important fisheries. We tested for changes in spawning phenology of regionally important walleye (Sander vitreus) populations in 194 Midwest US lakes in Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin spanning 1939-2019 to investigate factors influencing walleye phenological responses to climate change and associated climate variability, including ice-off timing, lake physical characteristics, and population stocking history. Data from Wisconsin and Michigan lakes (185 and 5 out of 194 total lakes, respectively) were collected by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) and the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) through standardized spring walleye mark-recapture surveys and spring tribal harvest season records. Standardized spring mark-recapture population estimates are performed shortly after ice-off, where following a marking event, a subsequent recapture sampling event is conducted using nighttime electrofishing (typically AC – WDNR, pulsed-DC – GLIFWC) of the entire shoreline including islands for small lakes and index stations for large lakes (Hansen et al. 2015) that is timed to coincide with peak walleye spawning activity (G. Hatzenbeler, WDNR, personal communication; M. Luehring, GLIFWC, personal communication; Beard et al. 1997). Data for four additional Minnesota lakes were collected by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) beginning in 1939 during annual collections of walleye eggs and broodstock (Schneider et al. 2010), where date of peak egg take was used to index peak spawning activity. For lakes where spawning location did not match the lake for which the ice-off data was collected, the spawning location either flowed into (Pike River) or was within 50 km of a lake where ice-off data were available (Pine River) and these ice-off data were used. Following the affirmation of off-reservation Ojibwe tribal fishing rights in the Ceded Territories of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in 1987, tribal spearfishers have targeted walleye during spring spawning (Mrnak et al. 2018). Nightly harvests are recorded as part of a compulsory creel survey (US Department of the Interior 1991). Using these records, we calculated the date of peak spawning activity in a given lake-year as the day of maximum tribal harvest. Although we were unable to account for varying effort in these data, a preliminary analysis comparing spawning dates estimated using tribal harvest to those determined from standardized agency surveys in the same lake and year showed that they were highly correlated (Pearson’s correlation: r = 0.91, P < 0.001). For lakes that had walleye spawning data from both agency surveys and tribal harvest, we used the data source with the greatest number of observation years. Ice-off phenology data was collected from two sources – either observed from the Global Lake and River Ice Phenology database (Benson et al. 2000)t, or modeled from a USGS region-wide machine-learning model which used North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological inputs combined with lake characteristics (lake position, clarity, size, depth, hypsography, etc.) to predict daily water column temperatures from 1979 - 2022, from which ice-off dates could be derived (https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/6206d3c2d34ec05caca53071; see Corson-Dosch et al. 2023 for details). Modeled data for our study lakes (see (Read et al. 2021) for modeling details), which performed well in reflecting ice phenology when compared to observed data (i.e., highly significant correlation between observed and modeled ice-off dates when both were available; r = 0.71, p < 0.001). Lake surface area (ha), latitude, and maximum depth (m) were acquired from agency databases and lake reports. Lake class was based on a WDNR lakes classification system (Rypel et al. 2019) that categorized lakes based on temperature, water clarity, depth, and fish community. Walleye stocking history was defined using the walleye stocking classification system developed by the Wisconsin Technical Working Group (see also Sass et al. 2021), which categorized lakes based on relative contributions of naturally-produced and stocked fish to adult recruitment by relying heavily on historic records of age-0 and age-1 catch rates and stocking histories. Wisconsin lakes were divided into three groups: natural recruitment (NR), a combination of stocking and natural recruitment (C-ST), and stocked only (ST). Walleye natural recruitment was indexed as age-0 walleye CPE (number of age-0 walleye captured per km of shoreline electrofished) from WDNR and GLIFWC fall electrofishing surveys (see Hansen et al. 2015 for details). We excluded lake-years where stocking of age-0 fish occurred before age-0 surveys to only include measurements of naturally-reproduced fish. 

   more » « less