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ABSTRACT Consistently accurate 3D nucleic acid structure prediction would facilitate studies of the diverse RNA and DNA molecules underlying life. In CASP16, blind predictions for 42 targets canvassing a full array of nucleic acid functions, from dopamine binding by DNA to formation of elaborate RNA nanocages, were submitted by 65 groups from 46 different labs worldwide. In contrast to concurrent protein structure predictions, performance on nucleic acids was generally poor, with no predictions of previously unseen natural RNA structures achieving TM‐scores above 0.8. Even though automated server performance has improved, all top‐performing groups were human expert predictors: Vfold, GuangzhouRNA‐human, and KiharaLab. Good performance on one template‐free modeling target (OLE RNA) and accurate global secondary structure prediction suggested that structural information can be extracted from multiple sequence alignments. However, 3D accuracy generally appeared to depend on the availability of closely related 3D structure templates, and predictions still did not achieve consistent recovery of pseudoknots, singlet Watson‐Crick‐Franklin pairs, non‐canonical pairs, or tertiary motifs like A‐minor interactions. For the first time, blind predictions of nucleic acid interactions with small molecules, proteins, and other nucleic acids could be assessed in CASP16. As with nucleic acid monomers, prediction accuracy for nucleic acid complexes was generally poor unless 3D templates were available. Accounting for template availability, there has not been a notable increase in nucleic acid modeling accuracy between previous blind challenges and CASP16.
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Improving protein tertiary structure prediction by deep learning and distance prediction in CASP14
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ABSTRACT Biomolecules rely on water and ions for stable folding, but these interactions are often transient, dynamic, or disordered and thus hidden from experiments and evaluation challenges that represent biomolecules as single, ordered structures. Here, we compare blindly predicted ensembles of water and ion structure to the cryo‐EM densities observed around theTetrahymenaribozyme at 2.2–2.3 Å resolution, collected through target R1260 in the CASP16 competition. Twenty‐six groups participated in this solvation “cryo‐ensemble” prediction challenge, submitting over 350 million atoms in total, offering the first opportunity to compare blind predictions of dynamic solvent shell ensembles to cryo‐EM density. Predicted atomic ensembles were converted to density through local alignment and these densities were compared to the cryo‐EM densities using Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, mutual information, and precision‐recall curves. These predictions show that an ensemble representation is able to capture information of transient or dynamic water and ions better than traditional atomic models, but there remains a large accuracy gap to the performance ceiling set by experimental uncertainty. Overall, molecular dynamics approaches best matched the cryo‐EM density, with blind predictions from bussilab_plain_md, SoutheRNA, bussilab_replex, coogs2, and coogs3 outperforming the baseline molecular dynamics prediction. This study indicates that simulations of water and ions can be quantitatively evaluated with cryo‐EM maps. We propose that further community‐wide blind challenges can drive and evaluate progress in modeling water, ions, and other previously hidden components of biomolecular systems.more » « less
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ABSTRACT Accurate prediction of protein–peptide complex structures plays a critical role in structure‐based drug design, including antibody design. Most peptide‐docking benchmark studies were conducted using crystal structures of protein–peptide complexes; as such, the performance of the current peptide docking tools in the practical setting is unknown. Here, the practical setting implies there are no crystal or other experimental structures for the complex, nor for the receptor and peptide. In this work, we have developed a practical docking protocol that incorporated two famous machine learning models, AlphaFold 2 for structural prediction and ANI‐2x for ab initio potential prediction, to achieve a high success rate in modeling protein–peptide complex structures. The docking protocol consists of three major stages. In the first stage, the 3D structure of the receptor is predicted by AlphaFold 2 using the monomer mode, and that of the peptide is predicted by AlphaFold 2 using the multimer mode. We found that it is essential to include the receptor information to generate a high‐quality 3D structure of the peptide. In the second stage, rigid protein–peptide docking is performed using ZDOCK software. In the last stage, the top 10 docking poses are relaxed and refined by ANI‐2x in conjunction with our in‐house geometry optimization algorithm—conjugate gradient with backtracking line search (CG‐BS). CG‐BS was developed by us to more efficiently perform geometry optimization, which takes the potential and force directly from ANI‐2x machine learning models. The docking protocol achieved a very encouraging performance for a set of 62 very challenging protein–peptide systems which had an overall success rate of 34% if only the top 1 docking poses were considered. This success rate increased to 45% if the top 3 docking poses were considered. It is emphasized that this encouraging protein–peptide docking performance was achieved without using any crystal or experimental structures.more » « less
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/prot.26186
