skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: On the Need for New Measures of Phylogenomic Support
Abstract The scale of data sets used to infer phylogenies has grown dramatically in the last decades, providing researchers with an enormous amount of information with which to draw inferences about evolutionary history. However, standard approaches to assessing confidence in those inferences (e.g., nonparametric bootstrap proportions [BP] and Bayesian posterior probabilities [PPs]) are still deeply influenced by statistical procedures and frameworks that were developed when information was much more limited. These approaches largely quantify uncertainty caused by limited amounts of data, which is often vanishingly small with modern, genome-scale sequence data sets. As a consequence, today’s phylogenomic studies routinely report near-complete confidence in their inferences, even when different studies reach strongly conflicting conclusions and the sites and loci in a single data set contain much more heterogeneity than our methods assume or can accommodate. Therefore, we argue that BPs and marginal PPs of bipartitions have outlived their utility as the primary means of measuring phylogenetic support for modern phylogenomic data sets with large numbers of sites relative to the number of taxa. Continuing to rely on these measures will hinder progress towards understanding remaining sources of uncertainty in the most challenging portions of the Tree of Life. Instead, we encourage researchers to examine the ideas and methods presented in this special issue of Systematic Biology and to explore the area further in their own work. The papers in this special issue outline strategies for assessing confidence and uncertainty in phylogenomic data sets that move beyond stochastic error due to limited data and offer promise for more productive dialogue about the challenges that we face in reaching our shared goal of understanding the history of life on Earth.[Big data; gene tree variation; genomic era; statistical bias.]  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1950759 1950954
PAR ID:
10333742
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Editor(s):
Carstens, Bryan
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Systematic Biology
Volume:
71
Issue:
4
ISSN:
1063-5157
Page Range / eLocation ID:
917 to 920
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Systematic Biology)
    Ruane, Sara (Ed.)
    Abstract Genome-scale data have the potential to clarify phylogenetic relationships across the tree of life but have also revealed extensive gene tree conflict. This seeming paradox, whereby larger data sets both increase statistical confidence and uncover significant discordance, suggests that understanding sources of conflict is important for accurate reconstruction of evolutionary history. We explore this paradox in squamate reptiles, the vertebrate clade comprising lizards, snakes, and amphisbaenians. We collected an average of 5103 loci for 91 species of squamates that span higher-level diversity within the clade, which we augmented with publicly available sequences for an additional 17 taxa. Using a locus-by-locus approach, we evaluated support for alternative topologies at 17 contentious nodes in the phylogeny. We identified shared properties of conflicting loci, finding that rate and compositional heterogeneity drives discordance between gene trees and species tree and that conflicting loci rarely overlap across contentious nodes. Finally, by comparing our tests of nodal conflict to previous phylogenomic studies, we confidently resolve 9 of the 17 problematic nodes. We suggest this locus-by-locus and node-by-node approach can build consensus on which topological resolutions remain uncertain in phylogenomic studies of other contentious groups. [Anchored hybrid enrichment (AHE); gene tree conflict; molecular evolution; phylogenomic concordance; target capture; ultraconserved elements (UCE).] 
    more » « less
  2. ; (, Molecular Biology and Evolution)
    Satta, Yoko (Ed.)
    Abstract Likelihood-based tests of phylogenetic trees are a foundation of modern systematics. Over the past decade, an enormous wealth and diversity of model-based approaches have been developed for phylogenetic inference of both gene trees and species trees. However, while many techniques exist for conducting formal likelihood-based tests of gene trees, such frameworks are comparatively underdeveloped and underutilized for testing species tree hypotheses. To date, widely used tests of tree topology are designed to assess the fit of classical models of molecular sequence data and individual gene trees and thus are not readily applicable to the problem of species tree inference. To address this issue, we derive several analogous likelihood-based approaches for testing topologies using modern species tree models and heuristic algorithms that use gene tree topologies as input for maximum likelihood estimation under the multispecies coalescent. For the purpose of comparing support for species trees, these tests leverage the statistical procedures of their original gene tree-based counterparts that have an extended history for testing phylogenetic hypotheses at a single locus. We discuss and demonstrate a number of applications, limitations, and important considerations of these tests using simulated and empirical phylogenomic data sets that include both bifurcating topologies and reticulate network models of species relationships. Finally, we introduce the open-source R package SpeciesTopoTestR (SpeciesTopology Tests in R) that includes a suite of functions for conducting formal likelihood-based tests of species topologies given a set of input gene tree topologies. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; (, Molecular Biology and Evolution)
    Abstract Current phylogenomic approaches implicitly assume that the predominant phylogenetic signal within a genome reflects the true evolutionary history of organisms, without assessing the confounding effects of postspeciation gene flow that can produce a mosaic of phylogenetic signals that interact with recombinational variation. Here, we tested the validity of this assumption with a phylogenomic analysis of 27 species of the cat family, assessing local effects of recombination rate on species tree inference and divergence time estimation across their genomes. We found that the prevailing phylogenetic signal within the autosomes is not always representative of the most probable speciation history, due to ancient hybridization throughout felid evolution. Instead, phylogenetic signal was concentrated within regions of low recombination, and notably enriched within large X chromosome recombination cold spots that exhibited recurrent patterns of strong genetic differentiation and selective sweeps across mammalian orders. By contrast, regions of high recombination were enriched for signatures of ancient gene flow, and these sequences inflated crown-lineage divergence times by ∼40%. We conclude that existing phylogenomic approaches to infer the Tree of Life may be highly misleading without considering the genomic architecture of phylogenetic signal relative to recombination rate and its interplay with historical hybridization. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; (, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America)
    null (Ed.)
    ABSTRACT A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis performed for rock conditions and modified for soil conditions using deterministic site amplification factors does not account for uncertainty in site effects, which can be significant. One approach to account for such uncertainty is to compute a weighted average amplification curve using a logic tree that accounts for several possible scenarios with assigned weights corresponding to their relative likelihood or confidence. However, this approach can lead to statistical smoothing of the amplification curve and possibly to decreased computed hazard as epistemic uncertainty increases. This is against the expected trend that higher uncertainty leads to higher computed hazard, thus reducing the incentive for practitioners to characterize soil properties at a site. This study proposes a modified approach in which the epistemic uncertainty is captured in a plot of amplification factors versus period. Using a case history, the proposed method is shown to improve the issue with the weighted average method for at least two oscillator periods and to yield similar results for two other periods in which the highlighted issue is less significant. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; (, Genome biology and evolution)
    null (Ed.)
    The resolution of the Tree of Life has accelerated with advances in DNA sequencing technology. To achieve dense taxon sampling, it is often necessary to obtain DNA from historical museum specimens to supplement modern genetic samples. However, DNA from historical material is generally degraded, which presents various challenges. In this study, we evaluated how the coverage at variant sites and missing data among historical and modern samples impacts phylogenomic inference. We explored these patterns in the brush-tongued parrots (lories and lorikeets) of Australasia by sampling ultraconserved elements in 105 taxa. Trees estimated with low coverage characters had several clades where relationships appeared to be influenced by whether the sample came from historical or modern specimens, which were not observed when more stringent filtering was applied. To assess if the topologies were affected by missing data, we performed an outlier analysis of sites and loci, and a data reduction approach where we excluded sites based on data completeness. Depending on the outlier test, 0.15% of total sites or 38% of loci were driving the topological differences among trees, and at these sites, historical samples had 10.9× more missing data than modern ones. In contrast, 70% data completeness was necessary to avoid spurious relationships. Predictive modeling found that outlier analysis scores were correlated with parsimony informative sites in the clades whose topologies changed the most by filtering. After accounting for biased loci and understanding the stability of relationships, we inferred a more robust phylogenetic hypothesis for lories and lorikeets. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email