- Maex, Reinoud
- Award ID(s):
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- Journal Name:
- Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
- Page Range or eLocation-ID:
- 1 to 12
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title “Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics.” The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infectedmore »
Cancer is a major public health burden and is the second leading cause of death in the USA. The US National Cancer Institute estimated overall costs of cancer in 2007 at $219.2 billion. Breast cancer has the highest cancer incidence rates among women and is the second leading cause of cancer death among women. The ‘Surveillance, epidemiology, and end results’ programme of the National Cancer Institute collects and publishes cancer survival data from 17 population-based cancer registries. The CANSURV software of the National Cancer Institute analyses cancer survival data from the programme by using parametric and semiparametric mixture cure models. Another popular approach in cancer survival is the competing risks approach which considers the simultaneous risks from cancer and various other causes. The paper develops a model that unifies the mixture cure and competing risks approaches and that can handle the masked causes of death in a natural way. Markov chain sampling is used for Bayesian analysis of this model, and modelling and computational issues of general and restricted structures are discussed. The various model structures are compared by using Bayes factors. This Bayesian model is used to analyse survival data for the approximately 620000 breast cancer cases frommore »
We generalize the spatial and subset scan statistics from the single to the multiple subset case. The two main approaches to defining the log-likelihood ratio statistic in the single subset case—the population-based and expectation-based scan statistics—are considered, leading to risk partitioning and multiple cluster detection scan statistics, respectively. We show that, for distributions in a separable exponential family, the risk partitioning scan statistic can be expressed as a scaled f-divergence of the normalized count and baseline vectors, and the multiple cluster detection scan statistic as a sum of scaled Bregman divergences. In either case, however, maximization of the scan statistic by exhaustive search over all partitionings of the data requires exponential time. To make this optimization computationally feasible, we prove sufficient conditions under which the optimal partitioning is guaranteed to be consecutive. This Consecutive Partitions Property generalizes the linear-time subset scanning property from two partitions (the detected subset and the remaining data elements) to the multiple partition case. While the number of consecutive partitionings of n elements into t partitions scales as O(n^(t−1)), making it computationally expensive for large t, we present a dynamic programming approach which identifies the optimal consecutive partitioning in O(n^2 t) time, thus allowing for themore »
Abstract STUDY QUESTION
Can we derive adequate models to predict the probability of conception among couples actively trying to conceive?
Leveraging data collected from female participants in a North American preconception cohort study, we developed models to predict pregnancy with performance of ∼70% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY
Earlier work has focused primarily on identifying individual risk factors for infertility. Several predictive models have been developed in subfertile populations, with relatively low discrimination (AUC: 59–64%).
STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION
Study participants were female, aged 21–45 years, residents of the USA or Canada, not using fertility treatment, and actively trying to conceive at enrollment (2013–2019). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire at enrollment and follow-up questionnaires every 2 months for up to 12 months or until conception. We used data from 4133 participants with no more than one menstrual cycle of pregnancy attempt at study entry.
PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS
On the baseline questionnaire, participants reported data on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle and behavioral factors, diet quality, medical history and selected male partner characteristics. A total of 163 predictors were considered in this study. We implemented regularized logistic regression, support vector machines, neural networks and gradient boosted decisionmore »
MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE
Model I and II AUCs were 70% and 66%, respectively, in parsimonious models, and the concordance index for Model III was 63%. The predictors that were positively associated with pregnancy in all models were: having previously breastfed an infant and using multivitamins or folic acid supplements. The predictors that were inversely associated with pregnancy in all models were: female age, female BMI and history of infertility. Among nulligravid women with no history of infertility, the most important predictors were: female age, female BMI, male BMI, use of a fertility app, attempt time at study entry and perceived stress.
LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION
Reliance on self-reported predictor data could have introduced misclassification, which would likely be non-differential with respect to the pregnancy outcome given the prospective design. In addition, we cannot be certain that all relevant predictor variables were considered. Finally, though we validated the models using split-sample replication techniques, we did not conduct an external validation study.
WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS
Given a wide range of predictor data, machine learning algorithms can be leveraged to analyze epidemiologic data and predict the probability of conception with discrimination that exceeds earlier work.
STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)
The research was partially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (under grants DMS-1664644, CNS-1645681 and IIS-1914792) and the National Institutes for Health (under grants R01 GM135930 and UL54 TR004130). In the last 3 years, L.A.W. has received in-kind donations for primary data collection in PRESTO from FertilityFriend.com, Kindara.com, Sandstone Diagnostics and Swiss Precision Diagnostics. L.A.W. also serves as a fibroid consultant to AbbVie, Inc. The other authors declare no competing interests.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER
Associations between grip strength, brain structure, and mental health in > 40,000 participants from the UK Biobank
Grip strength is a widely used and well-validated measure of overall health that is increasingly understood to index risk for psychiatric illness and neurodegeneration in older adults. However, existing work has not examined how grip strength relates to a comprehensive set of mental health outcomes, which can detect early signs of cognitive decline. Furthermore, whether brain structure mediates associations between grip strength and cognition remains unknown.
Based on cross-sectional and longitudinal data from over 40,000 participants in the UK Biobank, this study investigated the behavioral and neural correlates of handgrip strength using a linear mixed effect model and mediation analysis.
In cross-sectional analysis, we found that greater grip strength was associated with better cognitive functioning, higher life satisfaction, greater subjective well-being, and reduced depression and anxiety symptoms while controlling for numerous demographic, anthropometric, and socioeconomic confounders. Further, grip strength of females showed stronger associations with most behavioral outcomes than males. In longitudinal analysis, baseline grip strength was related to cognitive performance at ~9 years follow-up, while the reverse effect was much weaker. Further, baseline neuroticism, health, and financial satisfaction were longitudinally associated with subsequent grip strength. The results revealed widespread associations between stronger grip strength and increased grey mattermore »
Overall, using the largest population-scale neuroimaging dataset currently available, our findings provide the most well-powered characterization of interplay between grip strength, mental health, and brain structure, which may facilitate the discovery of possible interventions to mitigate cognitive decline during aging.