Consistent Predictability of the Ocean State Ocean Model Using Information Theory and Flushing Timescales

Sane, Aakash; Fox‐Kemper, Baylor; Ullman, David S.; Kincaid, Christopher; Rothstein, Lewis

doi:10.1029/2020JC016875

Abstract The Miocene (∼23–5 Ma) experienced substantial paleogeographic changes, including the shoaling of the Panama Seaway and closure of the Tethys Seaway, which altered exchange pathways between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Changes in continental configuration and topography likely also influenced global wind patterns. Here, we investigate how these changes affected surface wind‐driven gyre circulation and interbasin volume transport using 14 fully coupled climate model simulations of the early and middle Miocene. The North and South Atlantic gyres, along with the South Pacific gyre, are weaker in the Miocene simulations compared to pre‐industrial (PI), while the North Pacific gyres are stronger. These changes largely follow the wind stress curl and basin width changes. Westward flow through the Panama Seaway occurs only in early Miocene simulations when the Tethys Seaway is open and transports are strongly westward. As the Tethys transport declines, flow across the Panama Seaway gradually reverses from westward (into the Pacific) to eastward (into the Atlantic). In simulations with a closed Tethys Seaway, the Panama transport is consistently eastward. The Southern Hemisphere westerlies are weaker than PI in all simulations, contributing to a reduced Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in 11 of the 14 cases. In the remaining three, a stronger ACC is simulated, likely due to a combination of enhanced meridional density gradients and model‐dependent sensitivities. These findings highlight how changes in Miocene seaways and wind patterns reshaped ocean circulation, influencing interbasin exchange, thermohaline properties, and global climate.

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