skip to main content

Explore Research Products in the NSF-PAR

Title: Exceptional increases in fluvial sediment fluxes in a warmer and wetter High Mountain Asia
Rivers originating in High Mountain Asia are crucial lifelines for one-third of the world’s population. These fragile headwaters are now experiencing amplified climate change, glacier melt, and permafrost thaw. Observational data from 28 headwater basins demonstrate substantial increases in both annual runoff and annual sediment fluxes across the past six decades. The increases are accelerating from the mid-1990s in response to a warmer and wetter climate. The total sediment flux from High Mountain Asia is projected to more than double by 2050 under an extreme climate change scenario. These findings have far-reaching implications for the region’s hydropower, food, and environmental security.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1831623
NSF-PAR ID:
10342827
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Science
Volume:
374
Issue:
6567
ISSN:
0036-8075
Page Range / eLocation ID:
599 to 603
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ( , Scientific prospectus)
    null (Ed.)
    Interactions between the solid Earth and climate system represent a frontier area for geoscientific research that is strongly emphasized in the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Science Plan. The continental margin of India adjoining the Arabian Sea offers a unique opportunity to understand tectonic-climatic interactions and the net impact of these on weathering and erosion of the Himalaya. Scientific drilling in the Arabian Sea is designed to understand the coevolution of mountain building, weathering, erosion, and climate over a range of timescales. The southwest monsoon is one of the most intense climatic phenomena on Earth. Its long-term development has been linked to the growth of high topography in South and Central Asia. Conversely, the tectonic evolution of the Himalaya, especially the exhumation of the Greater Himalaya, has been linked to intensification of the summer monsoon rains, as well as to plate tectonic forces. Weathering of the Himalaya has also been linked to long-term drawdown of atmospheric CO2 during the Cenozoic, culminating in the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. No other part of the world has such intense links between tectonic and climatic processes. Unfortunately, these hypotheses remain largely untested because of limited information on the history of erosion and weathering recorded in the resultant sedimentary prisms. This type of data cannot be found on shore because the proximal foreland basin records are disrupted by major unconformities, and depositional ages are difficult to determine with high precision. We therefore propose to recover longer records of erosion and weathering from the Indus Fan that will allow us to understand links between paleoceanographic processes and the climatic history of the region. The latter was partially addressed by Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 117 on the Oman margin, and further studies are proposed during IODP Expedition 353 (Indian Monsoon Rainfall) that will core several sites in the Bay of Bengal. Such records can be correlated to structural geological and thermochronology data in the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau to estimate how sediment fluxes and exhumation rates change through time. The drilling will be accomplished within a regional seismic stratigraphic framework and will for the first time permit an estimation of sediment budgets together with quantitative estimates of weathering fluxes and their variation through time. Specific goals of this expedition include 1. Testing whether the timing of the exhumation of Greater Himalaya correlates with an enhanced erosional flux and stronger chemical weathering after ~23 Ma, 2. Determining the amplitude and direction of the environmental change at 8 Ma, and 3. Dating the age of the base of the fan and the underlying basement to constrain the timing of India-Asia collision. Drilling through the fan base and into the underlying basement in the proposed area will permit additional constraints to be placed on the nature of the crust in the Laxmi Basin (Eastern Arabian Sea), which has a significant bearing on paleogeographic reconstructions along conjugate margins in the Arabian Sea and models of continental breakup on rifted volcanic margins. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ( , Proceedings of the International Ocean Discovery Program)
    The Indian (southwest) summer monsoon is one of the most intense climatic phenomena on Earth, with its long-term development possibly linked to the growth of high topography in South and Central Asia. The Indian continental margin, adjoining the Arabian Sea, offers a unique opportunity to investigate tectonic–climatic interactions and the net impact of these processes on weathering and erosion of the western Himalaya. During International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 355, two sites were drilled in Laxmi Basin in the eastern Arabian Sea to document the coevolution of mountain building, weathering, erosion, and climate over a range of timescales. In addition, recovering basement from the eastern Arabian Sea provides constraints on the early rifting history of the western continental margin of India with special emphasis on continental breakup between India and the Seychelles and its relationship to the plume-related volcanism of the Deccan Plateau. A major submarine fan probably draining the western Himalaya and Karakoram must have been supplying sediment to the eastern Arabian Sea since at least ~17 Ma. Sand mineral assemblages indicate that the Greater Himalayan Crystalline Sequence was fully exposed to the surface by this time. Most of the recovered sediment appears to be derived from the Indus River and includes minerals that are unique to the Indus Suture Zone, in particular glaucophane and hypersthene, most likely originating from the structural base of the Kohistan arc (i.e., within the Indus Suture Zone). Pliocene sandy intervals at Site U1456 were deposited in lower fan “sheet lobe” settings, with intervals of basin–plain turbidites separated by hemipelagic muddy sections deposited during the Miocene. Site U1457 is more distal in facies, reflecting its more marginal setting. No major active lobe appears to have affected Laxmi Basin since the late early Pleistocene (~1.2–1.5 Ma). We succeeded in recovering sections spanning the 8 Ma climatic transition, when monsoon intensity is believed to have changed strongly, although the nature of this change awaits postcruise analysis. We also recovered sediment from large mass transport deposits measuring ~330 and ~190 m thick at Sites U1456 and U1457, respectively. These sections include an upper sequence of slump-folded muddy and silty rocks, as well as underlying calcarenites and limestone breccias, together with smaller amounts of volcanic clasts, all of which are likely derived from the western Indian continental shelf. Identification of similar facies on the regional seismic lines in Laxmi Basin suggests that these deposits form parts of one of the world’s largest mass transport deposits. Coring of igneous basement was achieved at Site U1457. Recovery of massive basalt and associated volcaniclastic sediment at this site should address the key questions related to rifting and volcanism associated with formation of Laxmi Basin. Geochemical analysis indicates that these are low-K, high-Mg subalkaline tholeiitic basalts and do not represent a typical mid-ocean-ridge basalt. Other observations made at the two sites during Expedition 355 provide vital constraints on the rift history of this margin. Heat flow measurements at the two drill sites were calculated to be ~57 and ~60 mW/m2. Such heat flow values are compatible with those observed in average oceanic crust of 63–84 Ma age, as well as with the presence of highly extended continental crust. Postcruise analyses of the more than ~1722 m of core will provide further information about the nature of tectonic–climatic interactions in this global type area for such studies. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al ( , Preliminary report)
    null (Ed.)
    The Indian (southwest) summer monsoon is one of the most intense climatic phenomena on Earth. Its long-term development has been linked to the growth of high topography in South and Central Asia. The Indian continental margin, adjoining the Arabian Sea, offers a unique opportunity to investigate tectonic–climatic interactions and the net impact of these processes on weathering and erosion of the western Himalaya. During International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 355, two sites (U1456 and U1457) were drilled in Laxmi Basin in the eastern Arabian Sea to document the coevolution of mountain building, weathering, erosion, and climate over a range of timescales. In addition, recovering basement from the eastern Arabian Sea provides constraints on the early rifting history of the western continental margin of India with special emphasis on continental breakup between India and the Seychelles and its relationship to the plume-related volcanism of the Deccan Plateau. Drilling and coring operations during Expedition 355 recovered sediment from Sites U1456 and U1457 in the Laxmi Basin, penetrating 1109.4 and 1108.6 m below seafloor (mbsf), respectively. Drilling reached sediment dated to 13.5–17.7 Ma (late early to early middle Miocene) at Site U1456, although with a large hiatus between the lowermost sediment and overlying deposits dated to <10.9 Ma. At Site U1457, a much longer hiatus occurs near the base of the cored section, spanning from 10.9 to ~62 Ma. At both sites, hiatuses span ~8.2–9.2 and ~3.6–5.6 Ma, with a possible condensed section spanning ~2.0–2.6 Ma, although the total duration for each hiatus is slightly different between the two sites. A major submarine fan draining the western Himalaya and Karakoram must have been supplying sediment to the eastern Arabian Sea since at least ~17 Ma. Sand mineral assemblages indicate that the Greater Himalayan Crystalline Sequence was fully exposed to the surface by this time. Most of the recovered sediment appears to be derived from the Indus River and includes minerals that are unique to the Indus Suture Zone, in particular glaucophane and hypersthene, most likely originating from the structural base of the Kohistan arc. Pliocene sandy intervals at Site U1456 were deposited in lower fan “sheet lobe” settings, with intervals of basin plain turbidites separated by hemipelagic muddy sections deposited during the Miocene. Site U1457 is more distal in facies, reflecting its more marginal setting. No major active lobe appears to have affected the Laxmi Basin since the Middle Pleistocene (~1.2 Ma). We succeeded in recovering sections spanning the 8 Ma climatic transition, when monsoon intensity is believed to have changed strongly, although the nature of this change awaits postcruise analysis. We also recovered sediment from a large mass transport deposit measuring ~330 and ~190 m thick at Sites U1456 and U1457, respectively. This section includes an upper sequence of slump-folded muddy and silty rocks, as well as underlying calcarenites and limestone breccias, together with smaller amounts of volcanic clasts, all of which are likely derived from the western Indian continental shelf. Identification of similar facies on the regional seismic lines in Laxmi Basin suggests that these deposits form parts of one of the world’s largest mass transport deposits. Coring of igneous basement was successful at Site U1457. Recovery of massive basalt and associated volcaniclastic sediment at this site should address the key questions related to rifting and volcanism associated with formation of Laxmi Basin. Geochemical analysis is required to understand the petrogenesis and thus the tectonic setting of volcanism that will reveal whether it is oceanic basalt or volcanic rock contaminated by underlying continental crust or continental flood basalt. However, the fact that the lavas are massive and have few vesicles implies water depths of eruption likely deeper than 2000 m. This precludes opening of the basin in the presence of a major mantle thermal anomaly, such as that associated with the Deccan Large Igneous Province. Other observations made at the two sites during Expedition 355 provide vital constraints on the rift history of this margin. Heat flow measurements at the two drill sites were calculated to be ~57 and ~60 mW/m2. Such heat flow values are compatible with those observed in average oceanic crust of 63–84 Ma age, as well as with the presence of highly extended continental crust. Postcruise analyses of the more than ~1722 m of core will provide further information about the nature of tectonic–climatic interactions in this global type area for such studies. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al ( , International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health)
    Introduction: The incidence of diarrhea, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries such as Nepal, is temperature-sensitive, suggesting it could be associated with climate change. With climate change fueled increases in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, the incidence of water and food-borne diseases are increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This national-level ecological study was undertaken to provide evidence linking weather and climate with diarrhea incidence in Nepal. Method: We analyzed monthly diarrheal disease count and meteorological data from all districts, spanning 15 eco-development regions of Nepal. Meteorological data and monthly data on diarrheal disease were sourced, respectively, from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Health Management Information System (HMIS) of the Government of Nepal for the period from 2002 to 2014. Time-series log-linear regression models assessed the relationship between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and diarrhea burden. Predictors with p-values < 0.25 were retained in the fitted models. Results: Overall, diarrheal disease incidence in Nepal significantly increased with 1 °C increase in mean temperature (4.4%; 95% CI: 3.95, 4.85) and 1 cm increase in rainfall (0.28%; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.41). Seasonal variation of diarrheal incidence was prominent at the national level (11.63% rise in diarrheal cases in summer (95% CI: 4.17, 19.61) and 14.5% decrease in spring (95% CI: −18.81, −10.02) compared to winter season). Moreover, the effects of temperature and rainfall were highest in the mountain region compared to other ecological regions of Nepal. Conclusion: Our study provides empirical evidence linking weather factors and diarrheal disease burden in Nepal. This evidence suggests that additional climate change could increase diarrheal disease incidence across the nation. Mountainous regions are more sensitive to climate variability and consequently the burden of diarrheal diseases. These findings can be utilized to allocate necessary resources and envision a weather-based early warning system for the prevention and control of diarrheal diseases in Nepal. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; ( , Experimental and Applied Acarology)
    null (Ed.)
    Abstract Although currently exotic to New Zealand, the potential geographic distribution of Amblyomma americanum (L.), the lone star tick, was modelled using maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The MaxEnt model was calibrated across the native range of A. americanum in North America using present-day climatic conditions and occurrence data from museum collections. The resulting model was then projected onto New Zealand using both present-day and future climates modelled under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (low) and RCP 8.5 (high). Three sets of WorldClim bioclimatic variables were chosen using the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The preferred model was selected based on partial receiver operating characteristic tests, the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The final model had four bioclimatic variables, Annual Mean Temperature (BIO 1 ), Annual Precipitation (BIO 12 ), Precipitation Seasonality (BIO 15 ) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (BIO 17 ), and the projected New Zealand distribution was broadly similar to that of Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, New Zealand’s only livestock tick, but with a more extensive predicted suitability. The climate change predictions for the year 2050 under both low and high RCP scenarios projected only moderate increases in habitat suitability along the mountain valleys in the South Island. In conclusion, this analysis shows that given the opportunity and license A. americanum could and would successfully establish in New Zealand and could provide another vector for theileriosis organisms. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email