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Abstract Many regions of the planet have experienced an increase in fire activity in recent decades. Although such increases are consistent with warming and drying under continued climate change, the driving mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on future fire activity using seven Earth system models. Centered on the time of carbon dioxide doubling, the multi-model mean percent change in fire carbon emissions is 66.4 ± 38.8% (versus 1850 carbon dioxide concentrations, under fixed 1850 land-use conditions). A substantial increase is associated with enhanced vegetation growth due to carbon dioxide biogeochemical impacts at 60.1 ± 46.9%. In contrast, carbon dioxide radiative impacts, including warming and drying, yield a negligible response of fire carbon emissions at 1.7 ± 9.4%. Although model representation of fire processes remains uncertain, our results show the importance of vegetation dynamics to future increases in fire activity under increasing carbon dioxide, with potentially important policy implications.
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Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake
Fire is an important climate-driven disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems, also modulated by human ignitions or fire suppression. Changes in fire emissions can feed back on the global carbon cycle, but whether the trajectories of changing fire activity will exacerbate or attenuate climate change is poorly understood. Here, we quantify fire dynamics under historical and future climate and human demography using a coupled global climate–fire–carbon cycle model that emulates 34 individual Earth system models (ESMs). Results are compared with counterfactual worlds, one with a constant preindustrial fire regime and another without fire. Although uncertainty in projected fire effects is large and depends on ESM, socioeconomic trajectory, and emissions scenario, we find that changes in human demography tend to suppress global fire activity, keeping more carbon within terrestrial ecosystems and attenuating warming. Globally, changes in fire have acted to warm climate throughout most of the 20th century. However, recent and predicted future reductions in fire activity may reverse this, enhancing land carbon uptake and corresponding to offsetting ∼5 to 10 y of global CO 2 emissions at today’s levels. This potentially reduces warming by up to 0.11 °C by 2100. We show that climate–carbon cycle feedbacks, as caused by changing fire regimes, are most effective at slowing global warming under lower emission scenarios. Our study highlights that ignitions and active and passive fire suppression can be as important in driving future fire regimes as changes in climate, although with some risk of more extreme fires regionally and with implications for other ecosystem functions in fire-dependent ecosystems.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1802453
- PAR ID:
- 10343730
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 119
- Issue:
- 20
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2101186119
