skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: a review
Abstract Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa’s path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its sustainable development goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our study reviews the literature on electricity demand, with a specific focus on latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met) in SSA. We found that out of 57 electricity demand papers reviewed, only 3 (5%) incorporated latent demand in their electricity demand projections. Furthermore, majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. We find that population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology, and providing an initial proof of concept, for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders (e.g., investors and policymakers) about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2121730
PAR ID:
10346853
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
Volume:
2
Issue:
2
ISSN:
2634-4505
Page Range / eLocation ID:
022002
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Access to electricity is a crucial aspect of sub-Saharan Africa’s path towards development. In light of the potential for electricity access to improve quality of life, the United Nations aims to achieve universal access to ‘clean, reliable, affordable and modern’ electricity as Goal 7 of its Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7). As such, governments of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, such as Ethiopia, have developed national electrification plans to outline their pathway to universal access to electricity. In this paper, we identify why it is essential for the national electrification plans of SSA countries to prioritize electricity access for productive uses in its agricultural sector, using Ethiopia as a case study. Reviewing existing literature and using the authors’ research, we point out that there is 3.04 terawatt-hours of latent demand for small-scale pressurized cereal-crop irrigation alone in Ethiopia. Supplying this electricity demand for small-scale irrigation could lead to a reduction in the levelized cost of electricity of up to 95%. We conclude our paper by recommending the creation of a cross-sector national productive use commission that would be tasked with collecting and sharing relevant data from each sector and collaboratively creating a national productive use program that would ensure that Ethiopia reaps the full benefits and potential for wealth creation from access to electricity. 
    more » « less
  2. Sustainable Development Goal 7 of the United Nations is to achieve universal access to clean, modern and affordable electricity by 2030. However, 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently do not have access to electricity. As a result of this energy inequality, countries in SSA need to plan electricity systems that provide access in an equitable manner. The research question we explore in this paper is how integrating elicited preferences for equality into an electricity system planning model affects investment decisions regarding technology deployment. Our novel contribution is proposing a framework in the form of a discrete choice experiment and a statistical estimation model to determine decision makers’ preferences for equality. In our study, we find that higher preferences for equality result in an increased deployment of solar diesel mini-grids. These hybrid mini-grids, in turn, drive the carbon emissions intensity of the electricity system fourfold. As such, there is a need for stakeholders in Africa’s energy sector to consider the potential divergence between a carbon-minimizing electrification strategy and equitable electrification. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), over 75% of households lack on-premises water access, requiring residents to spend time walking to collect water from outside their homes – a time burden that falls disproportionately on women and girls. Climate change is predicted to alter precipitation and temperature patterns in SSA, which could impact household water access. Here, we use spatial first differences to assess the causal effects of weather on water fetching walk time using household survey data (n = 979,759 observations from 31 countries) merged with geo- and temporally-linked precipitation and temperature data over time periods ranging from 7 to 365 days. We find increases in precipitation reduce water fetching times; a 1 cm increase in weekly rainfall over the past year decreases walking time by 3.5 min. Higher temperatures increase walk times, with a 1°C increase in temperature over the past year increasing walking time by 0.76 min. Rural household water fetching times are more impacted by recent weather compared to urban households; however, electricity access in rural communities mitigates the effect. Our findings suggest that future climate change will increase the water fetching burden in SSA, but that co-provision of electricity and water infrastructure may be able to alleviate this burden. 
    more » « less
  4. Access to electricity is important for delivering quality healthcare. This study explores innovative and comprehensive approaches to electrifying rural health facilities in Sub-Saharan Africa by integrating renewable energy solutions and innovative financial mechanisms. It assesses funding models, investment strategies, and policy frameworks to support energy access for healthcare delivery in underserved regions. This study shows that the electrification of rural health facilities can be achieved through a combination of renewable energy development and robust financial mechanisms. Investment by governments, the private sector, and development organizations is needed to increase the electrification of rural health facilities. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract High fractions of variable renewable electricity generation have challenged grid management within the balancing authority overseen by the California’s Independent System Operator (CAISO). In the early evening, solar resources tend to diminish as the system approaches peak demand, putting pressure on fast-responding, emissions-intensive natural gas generators. While residential precooling, a strategy intended to shift the timing of air-conditioning usage from peak-demand periods to cheaper off-peak periods, has been touted in the literature as being effective for reducing peak electricity usage and costs, we explore its impact on CO2emissions in regional grids like CAISO that have large disparities in their daytime versus nighttime emissions intensities. Here we use EnergyPlus to simulate precooling in a typical U.S. single-family home in California climate zone 9 to quantify the impact of precooling on peak electricity usage, CO2emissions, and residential utility costs. We find that replacing a constant-setpoint cooling schedule with a precooling schedule can reduce peak period electricity consumption by 57% and residential electricity costs by nearly 13%, while also reducing CO2emissions by 3.5%. These results suggest the traditional benefits of precooling can be achieved with an additional benefit of reducing CO2emissions in grids with high daytime renewable energy penetrations. 
    more » « less