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1. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2021

   Lenney, Jamie; Lutz, Byron; Schuele, Finn; Sheiner, Louise; Lucas, Deborah; Rauh, Joshua; Atkeson, Andrew; Romer, Christina D.; Ruffini, Krista; Wozniak, Abigail; et al (January 2022, Brookings papers on economic activity)

   Eberly, Janice; Stock, James H. (Ed.)

   JAMIE LENNEY, BYRON LUTZ, FINN SCHÜLE, and LOUISE SHEINER: "The Sustainability of State and Local Pensions: A Public Finance Approach" Comment by Deborah Lucas Comment by Joshua Rauh General Discussion PANEL on COVID-19 AND ECONOMIC POLICY AFTER ONE YEAR ANDREW ATKESON: "Behavior and the Dynamics of Epidemics" CHRISTINA D. ROMER: "The Fiscal Policy Response to the Pandemic" KRISTA RUFFINI and ABIGAIL WOZNIAK: "Supporting Workers and Families in the Pandemic Recession: Results in 2020 and Suggestions for 2021" General Discussion ANDREW METRICK and DANIEL TARULLO: "Congruent Financial Regulation" Comment by Viral Acharya Comment by Hyun Song Shin General Discussion PANEL on FIFTY YEARS OF BPEA’S CONTRIBUTIONS TO MACROECONOMICS AND POLICY ROBERT E. HALL: "The Brookings Panel’s Contributions to Research on Labor Markets" ROBERT J. GORDON: "Productivity and Growth over the Years at BPEA" ALAN S. BLINDER: "BPEA and Monetary Policy over Fifty Years" WILL DOBBIE and CRYSTAL YANG: "The Economic Costs of Pretrial Detention" Comment by Conrad Miller Comment by Justin Wolfers General Discussion CAROLINE M. HOXBY: "Advanced Cognitive Skill Deserts in the United States: Their Likely Causes and Implications" Comment by Erik Hurst Comment by Brian A. Jacob General Discussion 

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2. Perceptions About Monetary Policy

   https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjae021  

   Bauer, Michael D; Pflueger, Carolin E; Sunderam, Adi (June 2024, The Quarterly Journal of Economics)

   Abstract We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time, in particular over the monetary policy cycle. Forecasters update their perceptions about the Fed’s policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that they have imperfect information about the rule. Monetary policy perceptions matter for monetary transmission, as they affect the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic news, term premia in long-term bonds, and the response of the stock market to monetary policy surprises. A simple learning model with forecaster heterogeneity and incomplete information about the policy rule motivates and explains our empirical findings. 

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3. Proposing a 1.0°C climate target for a safer future

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000234  

   Breyer, Christian; Keiner, Dominik; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Creutzig, Felix; Gerhards, Christoph; Mühlbauer, Andreas; Nemet, Gregory F.; Terli, Özden (June 2023, PLOS Climate)

   Males, Jamie (Ed.)

   The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that climate change has already caused substantial damages at the current 1.2°C of global warming and that warming of 1.5°C would elevate risks of a wide-range of climate tipping points. For example, wet-bulb temperatures are already exceeding safe levels, and the melting of the Greenland and West Antartic ice sheets would lead to over ten metres of sea level rise, representing an existential threat to coastal cities, low-lying nation states, and human wellbeing worldwide. We call for a broad scientific discussion about a stricter and more ambitious climate target of 1.0°C by the end of this century. Comprehensive electrification and highly renewable energy systems offer a pathway to sub-1.5°C futures through rapid defossilisation and large-scale, electricity-based carbon dioxide removal. Independent scenarios show that restoring a stable and safe climate is attainable with coordinated policy and economic support. 

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4. Predictors of mental health during the Covid-19 pandemic in the US: Role of economic concerns, health worries and social distancing

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241895  

   Kämpfen, Fabrice; Kohler, Iliana V.; Ciancio, Alberto; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Maurer, Jürgen; Kohler, Hans-Peter (November 2020, PLOS ONE)

   Kwon, Young Dae (Ed.)

   Despite the profound health and economic implications of Covid-19, there is only limited knowledge to date about the role of economic concerns, health worries and social distancing for mental health outcomes during the pandemic. We analyze online survey data from the nationally representative “Understanding America Study” (UAS) covering the period of March 10-31st 2020 (sample size: 6,585). Mental health is assessed by the validated PHQ-4 instrument for measuring symptoms of depression and anxiety. About 29% (CI:27.4-.30.4%) of the US adult population reported some depression/anxiety symptoms over the study period, with symptoms deteriorating over the month of March. Worsening mental health was most strongly associated with concerns about the economic consequences of the pandemic, while concerns about the potential implications of the virus for respondents’ own health and social distancing also predicted increases in symptoms of depression and anxiety during the early stages of the pandemic in the US, albeit less strongly. Our findings point towards the possibility of a major mental health crisis unfolding simultaneously with the pandemic, with economic concerns being a key driving force of this crisis. These results highlight the likely importance of economic countermeasures and social policy for mitigating the impact of Covid-19 on adult mental health in the US over and above an effective public health response. 

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5. Examining the persistence of telecommuting after the COVID-19 pandemic

   https://doi.org/10.1080/19427867.2022.2077582  

   Mohammadi, Motahare; Rahimi, Ehsan; Davatgari, Amir; Javadinasr, Mohammadjavad; Mohammadian, Abolfazl; Bhagat-Conway, Matthew Wigginton; Salon, Deborah; Derrible, Sybil; Pendyala, Ram M.; Khoeini, Sara (May 2022, Transportation Letters)

   This study focuses on the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on telecommuting behavior. We seek to study the future of telecommuting, in the post-pandemic era, by capturing the evolution of observed behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we implemented a comprehensive multi-wave nationwide panel survey (the Future Survey) in the U.S. throughout 2020 and 2021. A panel Generalized Structural Equation Model (GSEM) was used to investigate the effects of two perceptual factors on telecommuting behavior: (1) perceived risk of COVID-19; and (2) perceived telecommuting productivity. The findings of this study reveal significant and positive impacts of productivity and COVID-risk perception on telecommuting behavior. Moreover, the findings indicate a potential shift in preferences toward telecommuting in the post-pandemic era for millennials, employees with long commute times, high-income, and highly educated employees. Overall, a potential increase in telecommuting frequency is expected in the post-pandemic era, with differences across socio-economic groups. 

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