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1. Bark Beetle Effects on Fire Regimes Depend on Underlying Fuel Modifications in Semiarid Systems

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003073  

   Ren, Jianning ; Hanan, Erin J. ; Hicke, Jeffrey A. ; Kolden, Crystal A. ; Abatzoglou, John T. ; Tague, Christina ; Bart, Ryan R. ; Kennedy, Maureen C. ; Liu, Mingliang ; Adam, Jennifer C. ( January 2023 , Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems)

   Although natural disturbances such as wildfire, extreme weather events, and insect outbreaks play a key role in structuring ecosystems and watersheds worldwide, climate change has intensified many disturbance regimes, which can have compounding negative effects on ecosystem processes and services. Recent studies have highlighted the need to understand whether wildfire increases or decreases after large‐scale beetle outbreaks. However, observational studies have produced mixed results. To address this, we applied a coupled ecohydrologic‐fire regime‐beetle effects model (RHESSys‐WMFire‐Beetle) in a semiarid watershed in the western US. We found that in the red phase (0–5 years post‐outbreak), surface fire extent, burn probability, and surface and crown fire severity all decreased. In the gray phase (6–15 years post‐outbreak), both surface fire extent and surface and crown fire severity increased with increasing mortality. However, fire probability reached a plateau during high mortality levels (>50% in terms of carbon removed). In the old phase (one to several decades post‐outbreak), fire extent and severity still increased in all mortality levels. However, fire probability increased during low to medium mortality (≤50%) but decreased during high mortality levels (>50%). Wildfire responses also depended on the fire regime. In fuel‐limited locations, fire probability increased with increasing fuel loads, whereas in fuel‐abundant (flammability‐limited) systems, fire probability decreased due to decreases in fuel aridity from reduced plant water demand. This modeling framework can improve our understanding of the mechanisms driving wildfire responses and aid managers in predicting when and where fire hazards will increase.

    

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2. Spruce Beetle Outbreak Increases Streamflow From Snow‐Dominated Basins in Southwest Colorado, USA

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR029964  

   Manning, Aidan L. ; Harpold, Adrian ; Csank, Adam ( April 2022 , Water Resources Research)

   Bark beetles have impacted over 58 million acres of coniferous forest in the Western US since 2000. Most beetle impacted forests are in snow dominated, water limited headwater basins, which generate a disproportionate fraction of water supplies. Previous studies show mixed impacts of bark beetle outbreaks on streamflow with the potential to cause increased or decreased flows, but these studies either predate long‐term snowpack data, are model‐based, or examine only mountain pine beetle outbreaks. Ours is the first study to use an empirical, climate‐normalized paired catchment approach to quantify streamflow response to spruce beetle kill. Using 27 years of climate and streamflow observations from southwest Colorado, we show that in three of the six beetle impacted study basins, annual climate‐normalized streamflow increased by 22%–37% for at least three to 6 years after the beetle outbreak. Impacted basins exhibited no decreased flows and flows in unimpacted control basins remained unchanged. Among impacted basins, no single basin characteristic clearly explained variation of streamflow response. Higher runoff ratios during snowmelt contribute anywhere from 9% to 64% of streamflow increases, implying the importance of both snow and growing season processes in driving streamflow increases. These findings show variable, sometimes substantial streamflow increases in critical water supply basins following beetle kill in subalpine spruce forests, and contrast with evidence of unchanged or decreased streamflow following beetle kill in lower elevation pine forests in colder northern Colorado basins, highlighting the importance of climate and forest composition in refining hydrologic predictions following mountain forest disturbances.

    

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3. Bayesian Analyses of 17 Winters of Water Vapor Fluxes Show Bark Beetles Reduce Sublimation

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023054  

   Frank, John M. ; Massman, William J. ; Ewers, Brent E. ; Williams, David G. ( February 2019 , Water Resources Research)

   Sublimation is an important hydrological flux in cold, snow‐dominated ecosystems. In high‐elevation spruce‐fir forests of western North America, spruce beetle outbreaks have killed trees, reduced the canopy, and altered processes that control sublimation. We evaluated two hypotheses related to effects of disturbance on sublimation in this ecosystem: (1) the dominant source for sublimation is canopy intercepted snow and (2) the loss of canopy following a beetle disturbance leads to less total sublimation. To incorporate uncertainty hierarchically across multiple data sources and address phenomenological parsimony, Bayesian statistics were used to analyze 17 years (2000–2016) of winter eddy covariance flux data at the Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiments Sites AmeriFlux sites where a spruce beetle outbreak caused 75–85% basal area mortality. Our analysis revealed that resistances to sublimate snow from the canopy were an order of magnitude less than from the snowpack, and the maximum snow loading capacity in disturbed canopies was reduced to 34% of its pre‐outbreak value. Total sublimation has decreased since 2010, 2 years after the main outbreak, declining 24% (with a 95% credible interval, C.I., between 18% and 38%) during 2014–2016 due to a 32% decrease in canopy sublimation. Snowpack sublimation only increased 3% over this period. With less total sublimation, the forest retained 6.1% (4.5–12.3% C.I.) more snowpack mass or equivalently 4.4% (3.2–8.8 C.I.) of the annual precipitation. Considering tree growth and ecological succession are slow in spruce‐fir forests, this decrease in sublimation should persist as an increased snowpack for decades, with substantial impacts on catchment hydrologic processes and potentially streamflow.

    

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4. Rocky Mountain forests are poised to recover following bark beetle outbreaks but with altered composition

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13999  

   Rodman, Kyle C. ; Andrus, Robert A. ; Carlson, Amanda R. ; Carter, Trevor A. ; Chapman, Teresa B. ; Coop, Jonathan D. ; Fornwalt, Paula J. ; Gill, Nathan S. ; Harvey, Brian J. ; Hoffman, Ashley E. ; et al ( December 2022 , Journal of Ecology)

   1. Amplified by warming temperatures and drought, recent outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) have caused extensive tree mortality throughout Europe and North America. Despite their ubiquitous nature and important effects on ecosystems, forest recovery following such disturbances is poorly understood, particularly across regions with varying abiotic conditions and outbreak effects. 2. To better understand post-outbreak recovery across a topographically complex region, we synthesized data from 16 field studies spanning subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. From 1997 to 2019, these forests were heavily affected by outbreaks of three native bark beetle species (Dendroctonus ponderosae, Dendroctonus rufipennis and Dryocoetes confusus). We compared pre- and post-outbreak forest conditions and developed region-wide predictive maps of post-outbreak (1) live basal areas, (2) juvenile densities and (3) height growth rates for the most abundant tree species – aspen (Populus tremuloides), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). 3. Beetle-caused tree mortality reduced the average diameter of live trees by 28.4% (5.6 cm), and species dominance was altered on 27.8% of field plots with shifts away from pine and spruce. However, most plots (82.1%) were likely to recover towards pre-outbreak tree densities without additional regeneration. Region-wide maps indicated that fir and aspen, non-host species for bark beetle species with the most severe effects (i.e. Dendroctonus spp.), will benefit from outbreaks through increased compositional dominance. After accounting for individual size, height growth for all conifer species was more rapid in sites with low winter precipitation, high winter temperatures and severe outbreaks. 4. Synthesis. In subalpine forests of the US Rocky Mountains, recent bark beetle outbreaks have reduced tree size and altered species composition. While eventual recovery of the pre-outbreak forest structure is likely in most places, changes in species composition may persist for decades. Still, forest communities following bark beetle outbreaks are widely variable due to differences in pre-outbreak conditions, outbreak severity and abiotic gradients. This regional variability has critical implications for ecosystem services and susceptibility to future disturbances. 

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5. Effects of Bark Beetle Outbreaks on Forest Landscape Pattern in the Southern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13061089  

   Rodman, Kyle C. ; Andrus, Robert A. ; Butkiewicz, Cori L. ; Chapman, Teresa B. ; Gill, Nathan S. ; Harvey, Brian J. ; Kulakowski, Dominik ; Tutland, Niko J. ; Veblen, Thomas T. ; Hart, Sarah J. ( March 2021 , Remote Sensing)

   null (Ed.)

   Since the late 1990s, extensive outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) have affected coniferous forests throughout Europe and North America, driving changes in carbon storage, wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, and water resource provisioning. Remote sensing is a crucial tool for quantifying the effects of these disturbances across broad landscapes. In particular, Landsat time series (LTS) are increasingly used to characterize outbreak dynamics, including the presence and severity of bark beetle-caused tree mortality, though broad-scale LTS-based maps are rarely informed by detailed field validation. Here we used spatial and temporal information from LTS products, in combination with extensive field data and Random Forest (RF) models, to develop 30-m maps of the presence (i.e., any occurrence) and severity (i.e., cumulative percent basal area mortality) of beetle-caused tree mortality 1997–2019 in subalpine forests throughout the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Using resultant maps, we also quantified spatial patterns of cumulative tree mortality throughout the region, an important yet poorly understood concept in beetle-affected forests. RF models using LTS products to predict presence and severity performed well, with 80.3% correctly classified (Kappa = 0.61) and R2 = 0.68 (RMSE = 17.3), respectively. We found that ≥10,256 km2 of subalpine forest area (39.5% of the study area) was affected by bark beetles and 19.3% of the study area experienced ≥70% tree mortality over the twenty-three year period. Variograms indicated that severity was autocorrelated at scales < 250 km. Interestingly, cumulative patch-size distributions showed that areas with a near-total loss of the overstory canopy (i.e., ≥90% mortality) were relatively small (<0.24 km2) and isolated throughout the study area. Our findings help to inform an understanding of the variable effects of bark beetle outbreaks across complex forested regions and provide insight into patterns of disturbance legacies, landscape connectivity, and susceptibility to future disturbance. 

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