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1. Modeling Household Earthquake Hazard Adjustment Intentions: An Extension of the Protection Motivation Theory

   https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000607  

   Li, Yueqi; Greer, Alex; Wu, Hao-Che (May 2023, Natural Hazards Review)

   Nasim Uddin Louise K. Comfort (Ed.)

   While existing literature has explored how hazard experience, salience, and demographics characteristics shape threat appraisal and hazard adjustment intentions, this study expands on past studies by exploring how additional factors such as qualitative characteristics of the hazard, political ideology, and oil entanglements shape threat appraisals, coping appraisals, and adjustment intentions in response to a techna hazard. This study builds on protection motivation theory (PMT) to explore factors that shape Oklahomans’ intentions to adjust to induced seismicity using data collected from households (n=866) across 27 counties in Oklahoma that have experienced varying levels of seismic activity resulting from oil and gas exploration. Correlational analyses and structural equation modeling show that several variables not included in the original PMT, such as feelings of dread or negative emotions associated with earthquakes, are important predictors of intentions to adopt hazard adjustments. This study concludes with examining the effect of additional factors on adjustment intentions and risk perceptions that can help guide future earthquake risk management in identifying and taking appropriate actions that will stimulate precautionary behavior of private actors. 

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2. From information to public preparedness in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: Examining risk communication outcomes in Metropolitan Portland, OR

   https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930211057582  

   MacPherson-Krutsky, Carson C.; Brand, Brittany D.; Lindell, Michael K. (January 2022, Earthquake Spectra)

   A Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake will cause widespread damage along the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast of the United States. It is, therefore, crucial to understand how to reduce future impacts across this region and assess current levels of household preparedness. Here, we examine whether decades of risk and preparedness campaigns have established protective knowledge and promoted hazard adjustments for residents of the Portland, Oregon metropolitan (PDX) region, an area where risk and preparedness campaigns have been increasing over the last decade. We also explore how PDX preparedness levels compare to those in other PNW regions using analogous data from multiple surveys over a 20-year time interval and assess PDX respondent’s perceptions of risk information sources. We find that 63% of PDX residents do not intend to “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” (DCHO) when earthquake shaking starts and that, although residents are generally aware of earthquake hazards in the area, they are less aware of the specific risks for their homes. Furthermore, PDX residents’ preparedness levels seem to be comparable to those recently surveyed in Washington, but somewhat less than those surveyed two decades ago in California, though more comprehensive data are needed to verify these results. We also find that people rate risk information provided by emergency managers and their websites as more accurate, understandable, relevant, and new than other sources. Our results suggest that significant gaps remain in translating broad awareness of the CSZ earthquake into personal knowledge and preparedness. This work provides guidance to PDX emergency educators for more targeted messaging and provides methods to measure preparedness variables in other regions for future comparisons. By paying close attention to preparedness gaps, local officials can use their limited resources more effectively to develop strategies to inform their communities and improve preparedness before a major earthquake strikes. 

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3. COVID-19 risk perception measures: factoring and prediction of behavioral intentions and policy support

   https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2023.2264301  

   Johnson, Branden B; Kim, Byungdoo (November 2023, Journal of Risk Research)

   Although early concepts of risk perception measures distinguished cognitive from affective items, until recently multi-dimensional taxonomies were absent from risk perception studies, and even more from tests of their association with behavior or policy support. Six longitudinal panel surveys on U.S. COVID-19 views (n = 2004 February 2020, ending April 2021) allowed testing of these relationships among ≤ 10 risk perception items measured in each wave. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed consistent distinctions between personal (conditioning perceived risk on taking further or no further protective action), collective (U.S., global), affective (concern, dread), and severity (estimates of eventual total U.S. infections and deaths) measures, while affect (good-bad feelings) and duration (how long people expect the outbreak to last) did not fit with their assumed affective and severity (respectively) parallels. Collective and affective/affect risk perceptions most strongly predicted both behavioral intentions and policy support for mask wearing, avoidance of large public gatherings, and vaccination, controlling for personal risk perception (which might be partly reflected in the affective/affect effects) and other measures. These findings underline the importance of multi-dimensionality (e.g. not just asking about personal risk perceptions) in designing risk perception research, even when trying to explain personal protective actions. 

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4. Evacuate or social distance? Modeling the influence of threat perceptions on hurricane evacuation in a dual‐threat environment

   https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14202  

   Wu, Hao‐Che; Murphy, Haley; Greer, Alex; Clay, Lauren (August 2023, Risk Analysis)

   Abstract This study investigates how different risk predictors influenced households’ evacuation decisions during a dual‐threat event (Hurricane Laura and COVID‐19 pandemic). The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) literature indicates that perceived threat variables are the most influential variables that drive evacuation decisions. This study applies the PADM to investigate a dual‐threat disaster that has conflicting protective action recommendations. Given the novelty, scale, span, impact, and messaging around COVID‐19, it is crucial to see how hurricanes along the Gulf Coast—a hazard addressed seasonally by residents with mostly consistent protective action messaging—produce different reactions in residents in this pandemic context. Household survey data were collected during early 2021 using a disproportionate stratified sampling procedure to include households located in mandatory and voluntary evacuation areas across the coastal counties in Texas and parishes in Louisiana that were affected by Hurricane Laura. Structural equation modeling was used to identify the relationships between perceived threats and evacuation decisions. The findings suggest affective risk perceptions strongly affected cognitive risk perceptions (CRPs). Notably, hurricane and COVID‐19 CRPs are significant predictors of hurricane evacuation decisions in different ways. Hurricane CRPs encourage evacuation, but COVID‐19 CRPs hinder evacuation decisions. 

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5. What Matters? Exploring Drivers of Basic and Complex Adjustments to Tornadoes Among College Students

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0008.1  

   Huntsman, David; Wu, Hao-Che; Greer, Alex (June 2021, Weather, Climate, and Society)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Scholars have produced several theories and models to explain why individuals adjust to hazards. While findings from these studies are informative, studies have not considered how threat and coping appraisals may have differential effects on varying types of hazard adjustments, or how these findings may generalize to vulnerable populations. This study expands on the Protection Motivation Theory to explore the factors that shape hazard adjustment intentions among college students, a population traditionally defined as vulnerable, in response to tornado risk. An online survey was administered to college students (n=377) at Oklahoma State University, situated in a region that experiences considerable tornado risk. While the correlations between threat appraisal and tornado hazard adjustment intentions are smaller than the correlations between coping appraisal and tornado hazard adjustment intentions, findings suggest that threat appraisals become more important for influencing college students’ adjustment intentions when adjustment activities are complex (e.g., tornado shelter, home insurance), rather than basic (e.g., flashlight, first aid kid). This suggests that while both threat appraisals and coping appraisals are important for complex hazard adjustment intentions, basic hazard adjustment intentions are almost exclusively determined by coping appraisals. These findings have several practical implications for emergency management and provide new avenues for future hazard adjustment studies. 

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