Gamma-ray burst GRB 211211A may have been the result of a neutron star merger at ≈350 Mpc. However, none of the LIGO–Virgo detectors were operating at the time. We show that the gravitational-wave signal from a GRB 211211A-like binary neutron star inspiral in the next LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA observing run (O4) would be below the conventional detection threshold, however a coincident gamma-ray burst observation would provide necessary information to claim a statistically significant multimessenger observation. We calculate that with O4 sensitivity, approximately $11{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of gamma-ray bursts within 600 Mpc will produce a confident association between the gravitational-wave binary neutron star inspiral signature and the prompt gamma-ray signature. This corresponds to a coincident detection rate of $0.22^{+8.3}_{-0.22}\,\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$, where the uncertainties are the 90 per cent confidence intervals arising from uncertainties in the absolute merger rate, beaming and jet-launching fractions. These increase to approximately $34{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and $0.71^{+26.8}_{-0.70}\,\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$ with proposed O5 sensitivity. We show that the above numbers do not depend significantly on the number of gravitational-wave observatories operating with the specific sensitivity. That is, the number of confident joint gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave detections is only marginally improved with two or three detectors operating compared to a single detector. It is therefore worth considering whether one detector with sufficient sensitivity (post O4) should remain in sky-watch mode at all times to elucidate the true nature of GRB 211211A-like events, a proposal we discuss in detail.
Since gravitational and electromagnetic waves from a compact binary coalescence carry independent information about the source, the joint observation is important for understanding the physical mechanisms of the emissions. Rapid detection and source localization of a gravitational wave signal are crucial for the joint observation to be successful. For a signal with a high signal-to-noise ratio, it is even possible to detect it before the merger, which is called early warning. In this article, we estimate the performances of the early warning for neutron-star black hole binaries, considering the precession effect of a binary orbit, with the near-future detectors such as A+, AdV+, KAGRA+ , and Voyager. We find that a gravitational wave source can be localized in $100 \, \rm {deg^2}$ on the sky before ∼10–$40 \, \rm {s}$ of time to merger once per year.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1912649
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10365717
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Volume:
- 512
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0035-8711
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 3878-3884
- Size(s):
- ["p. 3878-3884"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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