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1. The Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Subsequent Surface Impacts as Consequences to Arctic Sea Ice Loss

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0128.1  

   Liang, Yu-Chiao ; Kwon, Young-Oh ; Frankignoul, Claude ; Gastineau, Guillaume ; Smith, Karen L. ; Polvani, Lorenzo M. ; Sun, Lantao ; Peings, Yannick ; Deser, Clara ; Zhang, Ruonan ; et al ( January 2024 , Journal of Climate)

   This study investigates the stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss and subsequent near-surface impacts by analyzing 200-member coupled experiments using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) with preindustrial, present-day, and future sea ice conditions specified following the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The stratospheric polar vortex weakens significantly in response to the prescribed sea ice loss, with a larger response to greater ice loss (i.e., future minus preindustrial) than to smaller ice loss (i.e., future minus present-day). Following the weakening of the stratospheric circulation in early boreal winter, the coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to ice loss strengthens in late winter and early spring, projecting onto a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the lower troposphere. To investigate whether the stratospheric response to sea ice loss and subsequent surface impacts depend on the background oceanic state, ensemble members are initialized by a combination of varying phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV). Different AMV and IPV states combined, indeed, can modulate the stratosphere–troposphere responses to sea ice loss, particularly in the North Atlantic sector. Similar experiments with another climate model show that, although strong sea ice forcing also leads to tighter stratosphere–troposphere coupling than weak sea ice forcing, the timing of the response differs from that in WACCM6. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the stratospheric circulation and subsequent tropospheric variability on seasonal time scales, but modulation by the background oceanic state and model dependence need to be taken into account.

   This study uses new-generation climate models to better understand the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on the surface climate in the midlatitudes, including North America, Europe, and Siberia. We focus on the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, which involves the weakening of stratospheric winds and its downward coupling into the troposphere. Our results show that Arctic sea ice loss can affect the surface climate in the midlatitudes via the stratosphere–troposphere pathway, and highlight the modulations from background mean oceanic states as well as model dependence.

    

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2. Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00845-y  

   Ding, Xiuyuan ; Chen, Gang ; Zhang, Pengfei ; Domeisen, Daniela I. V. ; Orbe, Clara ( May 2023 , Communications Earth & Environment)

   Extreme cold events over North America such as the February 2021 cold wave have been suggested to be linked to stratospheric polar vortex stretching. However, it is not resolved how robustly and on which timescales the stratosphere contributes to the surface anomalies. Here we introduce a simple measure of stratospheric wave activity for reanalyses and model outputs. In contrast to the well-known surface influences of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) that increase the intraseasonal persistence of weather regimes, we show that extreme stratospheric wave events are accompanied by intraseasonal fluctuations between warm and cold spells over North America in observations and climate models. Particularly, strong stratospheric wave events are followed by an increased risk of cold extremes over North America 5–25 days later. Idealized simulations in an atmospheric model with a well-resolved stratosphere corroborate that strong stratospheric wave activity precedes North American cold spells through vertical wave coupling. These findings potentially benefit the predictability of high-impact winter cold extremes over North America.

    

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3. The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030923  

   Domeisen, Daniela I. V. ; Butler, Amy H. ; Charlton‐Perez, Andrew J. ; Ayarzagüena, Blanca ; Baldwin, Mark P. ; Dunn‐Sigouin, Etienne ; Furtado, Jason C. ; Garfinkel, Chaim I. ; Hitchcock, Peter ; Karpechko, Alexey Yu. ; et al ( January 2020 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S prediction systems to capture two important links between the stratosphere and troposphere: (1) changes in probabilistic prediction skill in the extratropical stratosphere by precursors in the tropics and the extratropical troposphere and (2) changes in surface predictability in the extratropics after stratospheric weak and strong vortex events. Probabilistic skill exists for stratospheric events when including extratropical tropospheric precursors over the North Pacific and Eurasia, though only a limited set of models captures the Eurasian precursors. Tropical teleconnections such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation increase the probabilistic skill of the polar vortex strength, though these are only captured by a limited set of models. At the surface, predictability is increased over the United States, Russia, and the Middle East for weak vortex events, but not for Europe, and the change in predictability is smaller for strong vortex events for all prediction systems. Prediction systems with poorly resolved stratospheric processes represent this skill to a lesser degree. Altogether, the analyses indicate that correctly simulating stratospheric variability and stratosphere‐troposphere dynamical coupling are critical elements for skillful S2S wintertime predictions.

    

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4. CIPS Observations of Gravity Wave Activity at the Edge of the Polar Vortices and Coupling to the Ionosphere

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038827  

   Harvey, V. L. ; Randall, C. E. ; Goncharenko, L. P. ; Becker, E. ; Forbes, J. M. ; Carstens, J. ; Xu, S. ; France, J. A. ; Zhang, S. ‐R. ; Bailey, S. M. ( June 2023 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   A new Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) gravity wave (GW) variance data set is available that facilitates automated analysis of GWs entering the mesosphere. This work examines several years of CIPS GW variances from 50 to 55 km in the context of the Arctic and Antarctic polar vortices. CIPS observes highest GW activity in the vortex edge region where horizontal wind speeds are largest, consistent with previously published GW climatologies in the stratosphere and mesosphere. CIPS observes the well‐documented planetary wave (PW)‐1 patterns in GW activity in both hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, maximum GW activity occurs over the North Atlantic and western Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere, maximum GW activity stretches from the Andes over the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as expected. In the NH, CIPS GW spatial patterns are highly correlated with horizontal wind speed. In the SH, CIPS GW patterns are less positively correlated with the winds due to increased zonal symmetry and orographic forcing. The Andes Mountains and Antarctic Peninsula, South Georgia Island, Kerguelen/Heard Islands, New Zealand, and Tasmania are persistent sources of orographic GWs. Atmospheric Infrared sounder observations of stratospheric GWs are analyzed alongside CIPS to explore vertical GW coherence and to infer GW propagation and sources. NH midlatitude GW activity is reduced during the January 2021 SSW, as expected. This reduction in GWs leads to a simultaneous reduction in traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), providing more evidence that weak polar vortex events with weak GW activity leads to reduced daytime TID activity.

    

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5. Diverse Surface Signatures of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Anomalies

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037422  

   Kolstad, E. W. ; Lee, S. H. ; Butler, A. H. ; Domeisen, D. I. V. ; Wulff, C. O. ( October 2022 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is an important driver of winter weather and climate variability and predictability in North America and Eurasia, with a downward influence that on average projects onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While tropospheric circulation anomalies accompanying anomalous vortex states display substantial case‐by‐case variability, understanding the full diversity of the surface signatures requires larger sample sizes than those available from reanalyses. Here, we first show that a large ensemble of seasonal hindcasts realistically reproduces the observed average surface signatures for weak and strong vortex winters and produces sufficient spread for single ensemble members to be considered as alternative realizations. We then use the ensemble to analyze the diversity of surface signatures during weak and strong vortex winters. Over Eurasia, relatively few weak vortex winters are associated with large‐scale cold conditions, suggesting that the strength of the observed cold signature could be inflated due to insufficient sampling. For both weak and strong vortex winters, the canonical temperature pattern in Eurasia only clearly arises when North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are in phase with the NAO. Over North America, while the main driver of interannual winter temperature variability is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the stratosphere can modulate ENSO teleconnections, affecting temperature and circulation anomalies over North America and downstream. These findings confirm that anomalous vortex states are associated with a broad spectrum of surface climate anomalies on the seasonal scale, which may not be fully captured by the small observational sample size.

    

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