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Abstract Agricultural land use is typically associated with high stream nutrient concentrations and increased nutrient loading to lakes. For lakes, evidence for these associations mostly comes from studies on individual lakes or watersheds that relate concentrations of nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) to aggregate measures of agricultural land use, such as the proportion of land used for agriculture in a lake’s watershed. However, at macroscales (i.e., in hundreds to thousands of lakes across large spatial extents), there is high variability around such relationships and it is unclear whether considering more granular (or detailed) agricultural data, such as fertilizer application, planting of specific crops, or the extent of near‐stream cropping, would improve prediction and inform understanding of lake nutrient drivers. Furthermore, it is unclear whether lake N and P would have different relationships to such measures and whether these relationships would vary by region, since regional variation has been observed in prior studies using aggregate measures of agriculture. To address these knowledge gaps, we examined relationships between granular measures of agricultural activity and lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations in 928 lakes and their watersheds in the Northeastern and Midwest U.S. using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach. We found that both lake TN and TP concentrations were related to these measures of agriculture, especially near‐stream agriculture. The relationships between measures of agriculture and lake TN concentrations were more regionally variable than those for TP. Conversely, TP concentrations were more strongly related to lake‐specific measures like depth and watershed hydrology relative to TN. Our finding that lake TN and TP concentrations have different relationships with granular measures of agricultural activity has implications for the design of effective and efficient policy approaches to maintain and improve water quality.
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LAGOS-NE Shallow Lakes: a dataset of lake variables and multi-scaled ecological context variables used to predict and compare trophic status and TP:CHLa relationships between shallow and non-shallow lakes in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States.
We conducted a macroscale study of 2,210 shallow lakes (mean depth ≤ 3m or a maximum depth ≤ 5m) in the Upper Midwestern and Northeastern U.S. We asked: What are the patterns and drivers of shallow lake total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll a (CHLa), and TP–CHLa relationships at the macroscale, how do these differ from those for 4,360 non-shallow lakes, and do results differ by hydrologic connectivity class? To answer this question, we assembled the LAGOS-NE Shallow Lakes dataset described herein, a dataset derived from existing LAGOS-NE, LAGOS-DEPTH, and LAGOS-CLIMATE datasets. Response data variables were the median of available summer (e.g., 15 June to 15 September) values of total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (CHLa). Predictor variables were assembled at two spatial scales for incorporation into hierarchical models. At the local or lake-specific scale (including the individual lake, its inter-lake watershed [iws] or corresponding HU12 watershed), variables included those representing land use/cover, hydrology, climate, morphometry, and acid deposition. At the regional scale (e.g., HU4 watershed), variables included a smaller set of predictor variables for hydrology and land use/cover. The dataset also includes the unique identifier assigned by LAGOS-NE(lagoslakeid); the latitude and longitude of the study lakes; their maximum and mean depths along with a depth classification of Shallow or non-Shallow; connectivity class (i.e., whether a lake was classified as connected (with inlets and outlets) or unconnected (lacking inlets); and the zone id for the HU4 to which each lake belongs. Along with the database, we provide the R scripts for the hierarchical models predicting TP or CHLa (TPorCHL_predictive_model.R), and the TP—CHLa relationship (TP_CHL_CSI_Model.R) for depth and connectivity subsets of the study lakes.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1638554
- PAR ID:
- 10358154
- Publisher / Repository:
- Environmental Data Initiative
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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