Water temperatures in mountain streams are likely to rise under future climate change, with negative impacts on ecosystems and water quality. However, it is difficult to predict which streams are most vulnerable due to sparse historical records of mountain stream temperatures as well as complex interactions between snowpack, groundwater, streamflow and water temperature. Minimum flow volumes are a potentially useful proxy for stream temperature, since daily streamflow records are much more common. We confirmed that there is a strong inverse relationship between annual low flows and peak water temperature using observed data from unimpaired streams throughout the montane regions of the United States' west coast. We then used linear models to explore the relationships between snowpack, potential evapotranspiration and other climate‐related variables with annual low flow volumes and peak water temperatures. We also incorporated previous years' flow volumes into these models to account for groundwater carryover from year to year. We found that annual peak snowpack water storage is a strong predictor of summer low flows in the more arid watersheds studied. This relationship is mediated by atmospheric water demand and carryover subsurface water storage from previous years, such that multi‐year droughts with high evapotranspiration lead to especially low flow volumes. We conclude that watershed management to help retain snow and increase baseflows may help counteract some of the streamflow temperature rises expected from a warming climate, especially in arid watersheds.
more »
« less
Low snowpack reduces thermal response diversity among streams across a landscape
Spatial and temporal variation in thermal conditions are important dimensions of aquatic landscapes, yet we do not understand how this heterogeneity will respond to climate change. Snowpack in many regions is declining but impacts on aquatic thermal regimes remain poorly understood. Our analyses of summer stream temperatures across a complex river basin in southwest Alaska show that loss of snowpack has disproportionate effects on water temperatures in streams that are cold under typical conditions, thereby homogenizing stream temperatures across the landscape during low snow conditions. Streams draining steep watersheds warmed from a summer average of 4–8°C between high and low snow years and became more responsive to variation in regional air temperature (as proxy for solar radiation), while streams draining flat watersheds changed negligibly. Our results suggest that conservation strategies for aquatic landscapes that focus on snow‐dominated cold‐water refugia may not be robust to future climate warming and changes in snowpack.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10361035
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Limnology and Oceanography Letters
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2378-2242
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 254-263
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
more » « less
Abstract As climate change continues to increase air temperature in high‐altitude ecosystems, it has become critical to understand the controls and scales of aquatic habitat vulnerability to warming. Here, we used a nested array of high‐frequency sensors, and advances in time‐series models, to examine spatiotemporal variation in thermal vulnerability in a model Sierra Nevada watershed. Stream thermal sensitivity to atmospheric warming fluctuated strongly over the year and peaked in spring and summer—when hot days threaten invertebrate communities most. The reach scale (~ 50 m) best captured variation in summer thermal regimes. Elevation, discharge, and conductivity were important correlates of summer water temperature across reaches, but upstream water temperature was the paramount driver—supporting that cascading warming occurs downstream in the network. Finally, we used our estimated summer thermal sensitivity and downscaled projections of summer air temperature to forecast end‐of‐the‐century stream warming, when extreme drought years like 2020–2021 become the norm. We found that 25.5% of cold‐water habitat may be lost under high‐emissions scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 (or 7.9% under mitigated RCP 4.5). This estimated reduction suggests that 27.2% of stream macroinvertebrate biodiversity (11.9% under the mitigated scenario) will be stressed or threatened in what was previously cold‐water habitat. Our quantitative approach is transferrable to other watersheds with spatially replicated time series and illustrates the importance of considering variation in the vulnerability of mountain streams to warming over both space and time. This approach may inform watershed conservation efforts by helping identify, and potentially mitigate, sites and time windows of peak vulnerability.
-
more » « less
Abstract The glacial meltwater streams in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs), Antarctica only flow during the austral summer and contain abundant algal mats which grow at the onset of flow. Their relative abundance in stream channels of this polar desert make the streams biogeochemical hot spots. The MDVs receive minimal precipitation as snow, which is redistributed by wind and deposited in distinct locations, some of which become persistent snow patches each year. Previous studies identified that MDV streamflow comes from a combination of glacier ice and snow, although snow was assumed to contribute little to the overall water budget. This study uses a combination of satellite imagery, terrain analysis, and field measurements to determine where snow patches accumulate and persist across MDV watersheds, and to quantify the potential hydrologic and biogeochemical contributions of snow patches to streams. Watersheds near the coast have the highest snow‐covered area and longest snow persistence. Many of these snow patches accumulate within the stream channels, which results in the potential to contribute to streamflow. During the summer of 2021–2022, stream channel snow patches had the potential to contribute anywhere between <1% and 90% of the total annual discharge in Lake Fryxell Basin streams, and may increase with different hydrometeorological conditions. On average the potential inputs from snow patches to streamflow was between 12% and 25% of the annual discharge during the 2021–2022 season, as determined by snow area and SWE. Snow patches in the majority of the watersheds had higher nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations than stream water, and six streams contained snow with higher N:P ratios than the average N:P in the stream water. This suggests that if such patches melt early in the summer, these nutrient and water inputs could occur at the right time and stoichiometry to be crucial for early season algal mat growth.
-
more » « less
Abstract Summer streamflow predictions are critical for managing water resources; however, warming‐induced shifts from snow to rain regimes impact low‐flow predictive models. Additionally, reductions in snowpack drive earlier peak flows and lower summer flows across the western United States increasing reliance on groundwater for maintaining summer streamflow. However, it remains poorly understood how groundwater contributions vary interannually. We quantify recession limb groundwater (RLGW), defined as the proportional groundwater contribution to the stream during the period between peak stream flow and low flow, to predict summer low flows across three diverse western US watersheds. We ask (a) how do snow and rain dynamics influence interannual variations of RLGW contributions and summer low flows?; (b) which watershed attributes impact the effectiveness of RLGW as a predictor of summer low flows? Linear models reveal that RLGW is a strong predictor of low flows across all sites and drastically improves low‐flow prediction compared to snow metrics at a rain‐dominated site. Results suggest that strength of RLGW control on summer low flows may be mediated by subsurface storage. Subsurface storage can be divided into dynamic (i.e., variability saturated) and deep (i.e., permanently saturated) components, and we hypothesize that interannual variability in dynamic storage contribution to streamflow drives RLGW variability. In systems with a higher proportion of dynamic storage, RLGW is a better predictor of summer low flow because the stream is more responsive to dynamic storage contributions compared to deep‐storage‐dominated systems. Overall, including RLGW improved low‐flow prediction across diverse watersheds.
-
more » « less
Abstract Observations from a granitic watershed within a Mediterranean climate reveal the hydrologic and critical zone functioning of a perennial stream headwater and its upslope contributing area within a meadow system in the Sierra Nevada, California. Chemical analysis (diagnostic tools of mixing models, end member mixing analysis, tritium, etc.) and physical data (stream stage, piezometers, soil water, snowpack, etc.) indicate there are two primary pathways of water input into a headwater stream sourced from a mountain meadow. One input is a shallower and younger subsurface pathway with water that resembles snowpack chemistry, and the other a deeper and older subsurface pathway with water that reflects the chemistry of the groundwater derived from the contributing hillslopes. Multi‐year observations reveal that regardless of snowpack amount, during the period of peak hillslope infiltration, shallow and deep pathways in the hillslope behave similarly to initiate headwater streams. However, during summer dry periods, similarities in active pathways within the meadow center are not maintained between high and low snowpack years. With less snow, perennial groundwater discharge within the meadow center is eliminated, becoming only a seasonal source at the meadow's outlet. At the meadow's edge, geophysically observed downslope thinning in saprolite thickness creates reduced lateral transmissivity and initiation points for headwater streams via enhanced groundwater discharge of upslope water. Combined, these findings suggest how loss of snowpack and critical zone structure can together mediate hydrologic function in a wet meadow system in a Mediterranean climate. Creating new understanding about the stability of hydraulic functioning in headwater wet‐meadow systems under a changing climate.
