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1. A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007943  

   Oikawa, P Y; Sihi, D; Forbrich, I; Fluet‐Chouinard, E; Najarro, M; Thomas, O; Shahan, J; Arias‐Ortiz, A; Russell, S; Knox, S H; et al (October 2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)

   Abstract Tidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO₂and CH₄flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO₂and CH₄emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO₂exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH₄module also explained the majority of variance in CH₄emissions in validation sites (R² = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on R_eco, (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH₄emissions, and (d) CH₄responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity. 

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2. Methane fluxes in tidal marshes of the conterminous United States

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17462  

   Arias‐Ortiz, Ariane; Wolfe, Jaxine; Bridgham, Scott_D; Knox, Sara; McNicol, Gavin; Needelman, Brian_A; Shahan, Julie; Stuart‐Haëntjens, Ellen_J; Windham‐Myers, Lisamarie; Oikawa, Patty_Y; et al (September 2024, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre‐industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH₄emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH₄fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH₄flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH₄emissions. This effort included creating an open‐source database of chamber‐based GHG fluxes (https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH₄m⁻² year⁻¹, with a median of 3.9 g CH₄m⁻² year⁻¹, and only 25% of sites exceeding 18 g CH₄m⁻² year⁻¹. The highest fluxes were observed at fresh‐oligohaline sites with daily maximum temperature normals (MATmax) above 25.6°C. These were followed by frequently inundated low and mid‐fresh‐oligohaline marshes with MATmax ≤25.6°C, and mesohaline sites with MATmax >19°C. Quantile regressions of paired chamber CH₄flux and porewater biogeochemistry revealed that the 90th percentile of fluxes fell below 5 ± 3 nmol m⁻² s⁻¹at sulfate concentrations >4.7 ± 0.6 mM, porewater salinity >21 ± 2 psu, or surface water salinity >15 ± 3 psu. Across sites, salinity was the dominant predictor of annual CH₄fluxes, while within sites, temperature, gross primary productivity (GPP), and tidal height controlled variability at diel and seasonal scales. At the diel scale, GPP preceded temperature in importance for predicting CH₄flux changes, while the opposite was observed at the seasonal scale. Water levels influenced the timing and pathway of diel CH₄fluxes, with pulsed releases of stored CH₄at low to rising tide. This study provides data and methods to improve tidal marsh CH₄emission estimates, support blue carbon assessments, and refine national and global GHG inventories. 

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3. Upscaling Wetland Methane Emissions From the FLUXNET‐CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model Development, Network Assessment, and Budget Comparison

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV000956  

   McNicol, Gavin; Fluet‐Chouinard, Etienne; Ouyang, Zutao; Knox, Sara; Zhang, Zhen; Aalto, Tuula; Bansal, Sheel; Chang, Kuang‐Yu; Chen, Min; Delwiche, Kyle; et al (October 2023, AGU Advances)

   Abstract Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH₄) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH₄budget. Data‐driven upscaling of CH₄fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom‐up estimates of wetland CH₄emissions. Here, we develop a six‐predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site‐years of eddy covariance CH₄flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET‐CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site‐level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH₄fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency ∼0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH₄emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH₄ y⁻¹for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom‐up land surface models (102–181 TgCH₄ y⁻¹) and overlaps with top‐down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH₄ y⁻¹). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH₄fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra‐tropical wetland CH₄emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid‐to‐arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions. The monthly wetland methane products gridded at 0.25° from UpCH4 are available via ORNL DAAC (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2253). 

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4. Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high‐latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16553  

   Watts, Jennifer D.; Farina, Mary; Kimball, John S.; Schiferl, Luke D.; Liu, Zhihua; Arndt, Kyle A.; Zona, Donatella; Ballantyne, Ashley; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W.; et al (January 2023, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Arctic‐boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic‐boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003–2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_eco), net ecosystem CO₂exchange (NEE;R_eco − GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH₄) emissions for the Arctic‐boreal zone using a satellite data‐driven process‐model for northern ecosystems (TCFM‐Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM‐Arctic to obtain daily 1‐km²flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan‐Arctic‐boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of −850 Tg CO₂‐C year⁻¹. Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH₄emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH₄) were estimated at 35 Tg CH₄‐C year⁻¹. Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high‐latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site‐to‐regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change. 

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5. On the Relationship Between Aquatic CO2 Concentration and Ecosystem Fluxes in Some of the World’s Key Wetland Types

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-023-01751-x  

   Richardson, Jessica L.; Desai, Ankur R.; Thom, Jonathan; Lindgren, Kim; Laudon, Hjalmar; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats; Campeau, Audrey; Järveoja, Järvi; Hawman, Peter; et al (January 2024, Wetlands)

   To understand patterns in CO2 partial pressure (PCO2) over time in wetlands’ surface water and porewater, we examined the relationship between PCO2 and land–atmosphere flux of CO2 at the ecosystem scale at 22 Northern Hemisphere wetland sites synthesized through an open call. Sites spanned 6 major wetland types (tidal, alpine, fen, bog, marsh, and prairie pothole/karst), 7 Köppen climates, and 16 different years. Ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross primary production (GPP), components of vertical CO2 flux, were compared to PCO2, a component of lateral CO2 flux, to determine if photosynthetic rates and soil respiration consistently influence wetland surface and porewater CO2 concentrations across wetlands. Similar to drivers of primary productivity at the ecosystem scale, PCO2 was strongly positively correlated with air temperature (Tair) at most sites. Monthly average PCO2 tended to peak towards the middle of the year and was more strongly related to Reco than GPP. Our results suggest Reco may be related to biologically driven PCO2 in wetlands, but the relationship is site-specific and could be an artifact of differently timed seasonal cycles or other factors. Higher levels of discharge do not consistently alter the relationship between Reco and temperature normalized PCO2. This work synthesizes relevant data and identifies key knowledge gaps in drivers of wetland respiration. 

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