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1. Extreme events and climate adaptation‐mitigation linkages: Understanding low‐carbon transitions in the era of global urbanization

   https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.616  

   Solecki, William ; Grimm, Nancy ; Marcotullio, Peter ; Boone, Christopher ; Bruns, Antje ; Lobo, Jose ; Luque, Andres ; Romero‐Lankao, Patricia ; Young, Andrea ; Zimmerman, Rae ; et al ( August 2019 , WIREs Climate Change)

   It has become increasingly clear that cities will have to simultaneously undertake both adaptation and mitigation in response to accelerating climate change and the growing demands for meaningful climate action. Here we examine the connections between climate mitigation and climate adaptation, specifically, between low‐carbon energy systems and extreme events. The article specifically addresses the question, how do responses to extreme climate risks enhance or limit capacity to promote city‐level greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation? As a step toward answering this question, we present a framework for considering windows of opportunity that may arise as a result of extreme events and how these windows can be exploited to foster development and implementation of low‐carbon energy strategies. Four brief case studies are used to provide empirical background and determine the impact of potential windows of opportunity. Some general conclusions are defined. In particular, the existing energy system structure is an important determinant of impact and potential for energy transitions. Well‐developed and articulated governance strategies and ready access of effective and economically efficient alternative energy technology were key to transitions. However, prospects for inequity in development and implementation of low‐carbon solutions need to be considered. Finally, exploiting windows of opportunity afforded by extreme events for developing low‐carbon economy and infrastructure also can provide resilience against those very events. These types of responses will be needed as extreme events increase in frequency and magnitude in the future, with cities as primary sites of impact and action.

   This article is categorized under:

   Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies

    

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2. Climate vulnerability mapping: A systematic review and future prospects

   https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.600  

   de Sherbinin, Alex ; Bukvic, Anamaria ; Rohat, Guillaume ; Gall, Melanie ; McCusker, Brent ; Preston, Benjamin ; Apotsos, Alex ; Fish, Carolyn ; Kienberger, Stefan ; Muhonda, Park ; et al ( July 2019 , WIREs Climate Change)

   Maps synthesizing climate, biophysical and socioeconomic data have become part of the standard tool‐kit for communicating the risks of climate change to society. Vulnerability maps are used to direct attention to geographic areas where impacts on society are expected to be greatest and that may therefore require adaptation interventions. Under the Green Climate Fund and other bilateral climate adaptation funding mechanisms, donors are investing billions of dollars of adaptation funds, often with guidance from modeling results, visualized and communicated through maps and spatial decision support tools. This paper presents the results of a systematic review of 84 studies that map social vulnerability to climate impacts. These assessments are compiled by interdisciplinary teams of researchers, span many regions, range in scale from local to global, and vary in terms of frameworks, data, methods, and thematic foci. The goal is to identify common approaches to mapping, evaluate their strengths and limitations, and offer recommendations and future directions for the field. The systematic review finds some convergence around common frameworks developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, frequent use of linear index aggregation, and common approaches to the selection and use of climate and socioeconomic data. Further, it identifies limitations such as a lack of future climate and socioeconomic projections in many studies, insufficient characterization of uncertainty, challenges in map validation, and insufficient engagement with policy audiences for those studies that purport to be policy relevant. Finally, it provides recommendations for addressing the identified shortcomings.

   This article is categorized under:

   Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values‐Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation

    

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3. COVID ‐19 and climate change: The social‐psychological roots of conflict and conflict interventions during global crises

   https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.837  

   Burrows, Brooke ; Abellera, Cierra ; Markowitz, Ezra M. ( March 2023 , WIREs Climate Change)

   The current study reviews key social psychological mechanisms related to conflict and conflict resolution that manifest within both the coronavirus pandemic and climate change crises. The uncertainty, scale, and nature of both global crises generate various forms of individual‐ and group‐level conflicts that, mediated by psychological and cultural phenomena, impede beneficial action and sustainable adaptation. Specifically, we highlight five social psychological mechanisms (i.e., cognitive dissonance, responsibility diffusion, compassion fatigue, dehumanization, and competitive beliefs) known to interact with, produce, and amplify intrapersonal, interpersonal, and/or intergroup conflicts. We draw attention to how these mechanisms have been activated by the pandemic in ways that share important similarities with climate change and present evidence‐informed approaches to combating their contribution to conflict (i.e., motivating behavior change, implementing accountability mechanisms, creating collective action opportunities, fostering intergroup contact, and promoting perspective‐taking). By engaging social psychological research to better understand both the roots of conflict as well as outline potential individual, community, and societal responses that can help alleviate conflict during these global crises, we can increase our ability to successfully navigate and in some cases avoid future conflicts caused by climate change.

   This article is categorized under:

   Perceptions, Behavior, and Communication of Climate Change > Behavior Change and Responses

    

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4. Inequities in the distribution of flood risk under floodplain restoration and climate change scenarios

   https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10290  

   Gourevitch, Jesse D. ; Diehl, Rebecca M. ; Wemple, Beverley C. ; Ricketts, Taylor H. ( January 2022 , People and Nature)

   The combined impacts of climate change and ecological degradation are expected to worsen inequality within society. These dynamics are exemplified by increases in flood risk globally. In general, low‐income and socially vulnerable populations disproportionately bear the cost of flood damages. Climate change is expected to increase the number of people exposed to fluvial flood risk and cause greater property damages. Floodplain restoration has the potential to mitigate these impacts, but the distribution of future risks among different types of property owners under these altered conditions is often unknown.

   Here, we develop a simple probabilistic approach for estimating flood risk to property owners under floodplain restoration and climate change scenarios for a range of flood recurrence intervals. We apply this approach in the Vermont, USA portion of the Lake Champlain Basin.

   Over a 100‐year time horizon, we estimate that the value of property damages caused by flood inundation is approximately $2.13 billion under the baseline scenario. Climate change is expected to increase damages to $5.29 billion, a 148% increase; however, floodplain restoration has the potential to reduce these impacts by approximately 20%.

   For all scenarios, a larger proportion of lower‐value properties, specifically mobile homes, face greater flood risk compared to higher‐value properties. Climate change is expected to cost higher‐value properties and commercial properties more than other types of properties, but these same groups are also expected to benefit most from floodplain restoration.

   In general, these results raise concern that those least able to prepare for and recover from flood damages are also the people who face the greatest threats. In response, public policy interventions must consider not only where flood risk is most severe, but also the vulnerability of people exposed to such risk.

   Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog.

    

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5. Six decades of North American bird banding records reveal plasticity in migration phenology

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13887  

   Horton, Kyle G. ; Morris, Sara R. ; Van Doren, Benjamin M. ; Covino, Kristen M. ( March 2023 , Journal of Animal Ecology)

   The timing of avian migration has evolved to exploit critical seasonal resources, yet plasticity within phenological responses may allow adjustments to interannual resource phenology. The diversity of migratory species and changes in underlying resources in response to climate change make it challenging to generalize these relationships.

   We use bird banding records during spring and fall migration from across North America to examine macroscale phenological responses to interannual fluctuations in temperature and long‐term annual trends in phenology.

   In total, we examine 19 species of North American wood warblers (family Parulidae), summarizing migration timing from 2,826,588 banded birds from 1961 to 2018 across 46 sites during spring and 124 sites during fall.

   During spring, warmer spring temperatures at banding locations translated to earlier median passage dates for 16 of 19 species, with an average 0.65‐day advancement in median passage for every 1°C increase in temperature, ranging from 0.25 to 1.26 days °C⁻¹. During the fall, relationships were considerably weaker, with only 3 of 19 species showing a relationship with temperature. In those three cases, later departure dates were associated with warmer fall periods. Projecting these trends forward under climate scenarios of temperature change, we forecast continued spring advancements under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2041 to 2060 and 2081 to 2100 and more muted and variable shifts for fall.

   These results demonstrate the capacity of long‐distance migrants to respond to interannual fluctuations in temperatures, at least during the spring, and showcase the potential of North American bird banding data understanding phenological trends across a wide diversity of avian species.

    

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