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1. Prediction of Diverse Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the GFDL SPEAR Model

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0601.1  

   Xiang, Baoqiang ; Wang, Bin ; Chen, Guosen ; Delworth, Thomas L. ( April 2024 , Journal of Climate)

   Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a primary source of predictability for summertime weather and climate on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scale. Using the GFDL SPEAR S2S prediction system, we evaluate the BSISO prediction skills based on 20-yr (2000–19) hindcast experiments with initializations from May to October. It is revealed that the overall BSISO prediction skill using all hindcasts reaches out to 22 days as measured by BSISO indices before the bivariate anomalous correlation coefficient (ACC) drops below 0.5. Results also show that the northeastward-propagating canonical BSISO (CB) event has a higher prediction skill than the northward dipole BSISO (DB) event (28 vs 23 days). This is attributed to CB’s more periodic nature, resulting in its longer persistence, while DB events are more episodic accompanied by a rapid demise after reaching maximum enhanced convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. From a forecaster’s perspective, a precursory strong Kelvin wave component in the equatorial western Pacific signifies the subsequent development of a CB event, which is likely more predictable. Investigation of individual CB events shows a large interevent spread in terms of their prediction skills. For CB, the events with weaker and fluctuating amplitude during their lifetime have relatively lower prediction skills likely linked to their weaker convection–circulation coupling. Interestingly, the prediction skills of individual CB events tend to be relatively higher and less scattered during late summer (August–October) than those in early summer (May–July), suggestive of the seasonal modulation on the evolution and predictability of BSISO.

   The advance of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction largely depends on dynamical models’ ability to predict some major intrinsic modes in the climate system, including the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). Using a newly developed S2S prediction system, we thoroughly evaluated its performance in predicting BSISO, and revealed the skill dependence on the BSISO propagation diversity. Here we provide physical explanations of what influences the BSISO predictions and identify different precursory signals for two types of BSISO, which have important implications for operational forecasts.

    

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2. Excitation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in Atmospheric Adjustment to Equatorial Heating

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0092.1  

   ( December 2021 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   We study the adjustment of the tropical atmosphere to localized surface heating using a Lagrangian atmospheric model (LAM) that simulates a realistic Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)—the dominant, eastward-propagating mode of tropical intraseasonal variability modulating atmospheric convection. Idealized warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of different aspect ratios and magnitudes are imposed in the equatorial Indian Ocean during MJO-neutral conditions and then maintained for 15 days. The experiments then continue for several more months. Throughout these experiments, we observe a robust generation of an MJO event, evident in precipitation, velocity, temperature, and moisture fields, which becomes a key element of atmospheric adjustment along with the expected Kelvin and Rossby waves. The MJO circulation pattern gradually builds up during the first week, and then starts to propagate eastward at a speed of 5–7 m s⁻¹. The upper-level quadrupole circulation characteristic of the MJO becomes evident around day 14, with two anticyclonic gyres generated by the Gill-type response to convective heating and two cyclonic gyres forced by the excited Kelvin waves and extratropical Rossby wave trains. A moisture budget analysis shows that the eastward propagation of the MJO is controlled largely by the anomalous advection of moisture and by the residual between anomalous moisture accumulation due to converging winds and precipitation. The initial MJO event is followed by successive secondary events, maintaining the MJO for several more cycles. Thus, this study highlights the fundamental role that the MJO can play in the adjustment of the moist equatorial atmosphere to localized surface heating.

    

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3. On the Westward Turning of Hurricane Sandy (2012): Effect of Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillations

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0663.1  

   Ding, Liudan ; Li, Tim ; Xiang, Baoqiang ; Peng, Melinda ( September 2019 , Journal of Climate)

   Hurricane Sandy (2012) experienced an unusual westward turning and made landfall in New Jersey after its northward movement over the Atlantic Ocean. The landfall caused severe casualties and great economic losses. The westward turning took place in the midlatitude Atlantic where the climatological mean wind is eastward. The cause of this unusual westward track is investigated through both observational analysis and model simulations. The observational analysis indicates that the hurricane steering flow was primarily controlled by atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which was characterized by a pair of anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation systems. The anticyclone to the north was part of a global wave train forced by convection over the tropical Indian Ocean through Rossby wave energy dispersion, and the cyclone to the south originated from the tropical Atlantic through northward propagation. Hindcast experiments using a global coupled model show that the model is able to predict the observed circulation pattern as well as the westward steering flow 6 days prior to Sandy’s landfall. Sensitivity experiments with different initial dates confirm the important role of the ISO in establishing the westward steering flow in the midlatitude Atlantic. Thus the successful numerical model experiments suggest a potential for extended-range dynamical tropical cyclone track predictions.

    

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4. Dominant Process for Northward Propagation of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Over the Western North Pacific

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089808  

   Yang, Young‐Min ; Lee, June‐Yi ; Wang, Bin ( November 2020 , Geophysical Research Letters)

   Northward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) has significant impacts on extreme events over Asia and Europe. Here we test hypotheses that northward propagation mechanisms over the WNP may differ from those over the Indian Ocean (IO) by performing numerical experiments with changing mean states through lowering the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our results suggest that air‐sea interaction plays a dominant role in the propagation over the WNP, whereas the mean vertical wind shear mechanism is the major driver over the IO. Lowering TP significantly reduces sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies to the north of BSISO center due to the enhanced surface wind and latent heat flux anomalies. This air‐sea interaction reduces upward transport of heat and moisture from surface to lower troposphere, weakening the northward propagation over the WNP. This study implies changes in SST patterns under global warming may influence BSISO propagation.

    

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5. Mechanism Studies of Madden‐Julian Oscillation Coupling Into the Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere Tides Using SABER, MERRA‐2, and SD‐WACCMX

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034595  

   Kumari, Komal ; Wu, Haonan ; Long, Abigail ; Lu, Xian ; Oberheide, Jens ( July 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward‐moving disturbance near the equator (±30°) that typically recurs every ∼30–90 days in tropical winds and clouds, is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in tropical convection and circulation and has been extensively studied due to its importance for medium‐range weather forecasting. A previous statistical diagnostic of SABER/TIMED observations and the MJO index showed that the migrating diurnal (DW1) and the important nonmigrating diurnal (DE3) tide modulates on MJO‐timescale in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) by about 20%–30%, depending on the MJO phase. In this study, we address the physics of the underlying coupling mechanisms using SABER, MERRA‐2 reanalysis, and SD‐WACCMX. Our emphasis was on the 2008–2010 time period when several strong MJO events occurred. SD‐WACCMX and SABER tides show characteristically similar MJO‐signal in the MLT region. The tides largely respond to the MJO in the tropospheric tidal forcing and less so to the MJO in tropospheric/stratospheric background winds. We further quantify the MJO response in the MLT region in the SD‐WACCMX zonal and meridional momentum forcing by separating the relative contributions of classical (Coriolis force and pressure gradient) and nonclassical forcing (advection and gravity wave drag [GWD]) which transport the MJO‐signal into the upper atmosphere. Interestingly, the tidal MJO‐response is larger in summer due to larger momentum forcing in the MLT region despite the MJO being most active in winter. We find that tidal advection and GWD forcing in MLT can work together or against each other depending on their phase relationship to the MJO‐phases.

    

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