Abstract Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation ( P ), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across Alaska, and during winter, spring, and autumn on the North Slope and North Panhandle (T2m > 0.50°C decade −1 ). Precipitation has also increased across climate divisions and appears strongly interrelated with temperature–sea ice feedbacks on the North Slope, specifically with increased (decreased) open water (sea ice extent). Snowfall equivalent (SFE) has decreased in autumn and spring, perhaps aligned with a regime transition of snow to rain, while winter SFE has broadly increased across the state. Sea ice decline and melt-season lengthening also have a pronounced signal around Alaska, with the largest trends in these parameters found in the Beaufort Sea. Alaska’s climatic changes are also placed in context against regional and contiguous U.S. air temperature trends and show ∼50% greater warming in Alaska relative to the lower-48 states. Alaska T2m increases also exceed those of any contiguous U.S. subregion, positioning Alaska at the forefront of U.S. climate warming. Significance Statement This study produces an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021) of key Alaska climate parameters, including air temperature, precipitation (including snowfall equivalent), and sea ice, to inform upcoming climate assessment reports, including the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) scheduled for publication in 2023. Key findings include widespread annual and seasonal warming with increased precipitation across much of the state. Winter snowfall has broadly increased, but spring and autumn snowfalls have decreased as rainfall increased. Autumn warming and precipitation increases over the North Slope, in particular, appear related to decreased sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Seas. These trends may result from interrelated processes that accelerate Alaska climate changes relative to those of the contiguous United States.
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Suppression of Arctic Sea Ice Growth in the Eurasian–Pacific Seas by Winter Clouds and Snowfall
The ongoing Arctic warming has been pronounced in winter and has been associated with an increase in downward longwave radiation. While previous studies have demonstrated that poleward moisture flux into the Arctic strengthens downward longwave radiation, less attention has been given to the impact of the accompanying increase in snowfall. Here, utilizing state-of-the-art sea ice models, we show that typical winter snowfall (snow water equivalent) anomalies of around 1.0 cm, accompanied by positive downward longwave radiation anomalies of ∼5 W m−2, can cause basinwide sea ice thinning by around 5 cm in the following spring over the Arctic seas in the Eurasian–Pacific seas. In extreme cases, this is followed by a shrinking of summer ice extent. In the winter of 2016/17, anomalously strong warm, moist air transport combined with ∼2.5-cm increase in snowfall (snow water equivalent) decreased spring ice thickness by ∼10 cm and decreased the following summer sea ice extent by 5%–30%. This study suggests that small changes in the pattern and volume of winter snowfall can strongly impact the sea ice thickness and extent in the following seasons.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1751386
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10363197
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 35
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 669-686
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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