An official website of the United States government
Abstract Aircraft collisions with birds span the entire history of human aviation, including fatal collisions during some of the first powered human flights. Much effort has been expended to reduce such collisions, but increased knowledge about bird movements and species occurrence could dramatically improve decision support and proactive measures to reduce them. Migratory movements of birds pose a unique, often overlooked, threat to aviation that is particularly difficult for individual airports to monitor and predict the occurrence of birds vary extensively in space and time at the local scales of airport responses.We use two publicly available datasets, radar data from the US NEXRAD network characterizing migration movements and eBird data collected by citizen scientists to map bird movements and species composition with low human effort expenditures but high temporal and spatial resolution relative to other large‐scale bird survey methods. As a test case, we compare results from weather radar distributions and eBird species composition with detailed bird strike records from three major New York airports.We show that weather radar‐based estimates of migration intensity can accurately predict the probability of bird strikes, with 80% of the variation in bird strikes across the year explained by the average amount of migratory movements captured on weather radar. We also show that eBird‐based estimates of species occurrence can, using species’ body mass and flocking propensity, accurately predict when most damaging strikes occur.Synthesis and applications. By better understanding when and where different bird species occur, airports across the world can predict seasonal periods of collision risks with greater temporal and spatial resolution; such predictions include potential to predict when the most severe and damaging strikes may occur. Our results highlight the power of federating datasets with bird movement and distribution data for developing better and more taxonomically and ecologically tuned models of likelihood of strikes occurring and severity of strikes.
more »
« less
Predicting bird‐window collisions with weather radar
Abstract Up to 1 billion birds die annually in the U.S. from window collisions; most of these casualties represent migratory native species. Because this major mortality source likely contributes to the decline of the North American avifauna, mitigation tools are needed that accurately predict real‐time collision risk, allowing hazards to be minimized before fatalities occur.We assessed the potential use of weather surveillance radar, an emerging tool increasingly used to study and to predict bird migration, as an early warning system to reduce numbers of bird‐window collisions.Based on bird‐window collision monitoring in Oklahoma, USA, we show that radar‐derived migration variables are associated with nightly numbers of collisions. Across the entire night, numbers of collisions increased with higher migration traffic rate (i.e. numbers of birds crossing a fixed line perpendicular to migration direction), and migration variables for specific periods within the night were also related to nightly collisions.Synthesis and applications. Our study suggests that radar can be an invaluable tool to predict bird‐window collisions and help refine mitigation efforts that reduce collisions such as reducing nighttime lighting emitted from and near buildings.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1927743
- PAR ID:
- 10364279
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Applied Ecology
- Volume:
- 58
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 0021-8901
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1593-1601
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Millions of nocturnally migrating birds die each year from collisions with built structures, especially brightly illuminated buildings and communication towers. Reducing this source of mortality requires knowledge of important behavioral, meteorological, and anthropogenic factors, yet we lack an understanding of the interacting roles of migration, artificial lighting, and weather conditions in causing fatal bird collisions. Using two decades of collision surveys and concurrent weather and migration measures, we model numbers of collisions occurring at a large urban building in Chicago. We find that the magnitude of nocturnal bird migration, building light output, and wind conditions are the most important predictors of fatal collisions. The greatest mortality occurred when the building was brightly lit during large nocturnal migration events and when winds concentrated birds along the Chicago lakeshore. We estimate that halving lighted window area decreases collision counts by 11× in spring and 6× in fall. Bird mortality could be reduced by ∼60% at this site by decreasing lighted window area to minimum levels historically recorded. Our study provides strong support for a relationship between nocturnal migration magnitude and urban bird mortality, mediated by light pollution and local atmospheric conditions. Although our research focuses on a single site, our findings have global implications for reducing or eliminating a critically important cause of bird mortality.more » « less
-
Abstract Tracking technologies have widely expanded our understanding of bird migration routes, destinations and underlying strategies. However, determining the entire trajectory of small birds equipped with lightweight geolocators remains a challenge.We develop a highly optimized hidden Markov model (HMM) for reconstructing bird trajectories. The observation model is defined by pressure and, optionally, light measurements, while the movement model incorporates wind data to constrain consecutive positions based on realistic airspeeds. To reduce the computational costs associated with a large state space, we prune the HMM states and transitions based on flight and observation constraints to efficiently model the entire trajectory.The approach presented is based on a mathematically exact procedure and is fast to compute. We demonstrate how to compute (1) the most likely trajectory, (2) the marginal probability map of each stationary period, (3) simulated trajectories and (4) the wind conditions (wind support/drift) encountered by the bird during each migratory flight.We construct a version of an HMM optimized for reconstructing a bird's migration trajectory based on lightweight geolocator data. To render this approach easily accessible to researchers, we designed a dedicated R packageGeoPressureR(https://raphaelnussbaumer.com/GeoPressureR/).more » « less
-
Every night during spring and autumn, the mass movement of migratory birds redistributes bird abundances found on the ground during the day. However, the connection between the magnitude of nocturnal migration and the resulting change in diurnal abundance remains poorly quantified. If departures and landings at the same location are balanced throughout the night, we expect high bird turnover but little change in diurnal abundance (stream‐like migration). Alternatively, migrants may move simultaneously in spatial pulses, with well‐separated areas of departure and landing that cause significant changes in the abundance of birds on the ground during the day (wave‐like migration). Here, we apply a flow model to data from weather surveillance radars (WSR) to quantify the daily fluxes of nocturnally migrating birds landing and departing from the ground, characterizing the movement and stopover of birds in a comprehensive synoptic scale framework. We corroborate our results with independent observations of the diurnal abundances of birds on the ground from eBird. Furthermore, we estimate the abundance turnover, defined as the proportion of birds replaced overnight. We find that seasonal bird migration chiefly resembles a stream where bird populations on the ground are continuously replaced by new individuals. Large areas show similar magnitudes of take‐off and landing, coupled with relatively small distances flown by birds each night, resulting in little change in bird densities on the ground. We further show that WSR‐inferred landing and take‐off fluxes predict changes in eBird‐derived abundance turnover rate and turnover in species composition. We find that the daily turnover rate of birds is 13% on average but can reach up to 50% on peak migration nights. Our results highlight that WSR networks can provide real‐time information on rapidly changing bird distributions on the ground. The flow model applied to WSR data can be a valuable tool for real‐time conservation and public engagement focused on migratory birds' daytime stopovers.more » « less
-
Abstract Humans have a particularly strong connection with birds, driving the enormous popularity of residential bird feeding in much of the world.We conducted a web search to document US state wildlife management agency responses to two recent avian disease outbreaks, finding that 23 agencies made recommendations to cease feeding wild birds in 2021–2022.The psychological benefits of bird feeding for humans are well‐documented but often overlooked in management decisions in response to avian disease outbreaks.Likewise, ecological evidence does not necessarily support ceasing bird feeding to reduce the spread of every avian disease.Ecological and social science need to be applied in tandem to ensure that well‐intended guidance to cease feeding of birds does not have unintended consequences.more » « less
