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1. El Niño Southern Oscillation, monsoon anomaly, and childhood diarrheal disease morbidity in Nepal

   https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac032  

   Adams, Nicholas ; Dhimal, Meghnath ; Mathews, Shifali ; Iyer, Veena ; Murtugudde, Raghu ; Liang, Xin-Zhong ; Haider, Muhiuddin ; Cruz-Cano, Raul ; Thu, Dang Thi Anh ; Hashim, Jamal Hisham ; et al ( March 2022 , PNAS Nexus)

   Climate change is adversely impacting the burden of diarrheal diseases. Despite significant reduction in global prevalence, diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies have shown that diarrheal disease is associated with meteorological conditions but the role of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon anomaly is less understood. We obtained 13 years (2002–2014) of diarrheal disease data from Nepal and investigated how the disease rate is associated with phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, vs. ENSO neutral) monsoon rainfall anomaly (below normal, above normal, vs. normal), and changes in timing of monsoon onset, and withdrawal (early, late, vs. normal). Monsoon season was associated with a 21% increase in diarrheal disease rates (Incident Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.16–1.27). El Niño was associated with an 8% reduction in risk while the La Niña was associated with a 32% increase in under-5 diarrheal disease rates. Likewise, higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall was associated with increased rates of diarrheal disease, with considerably higher rates observed in the mountain region (IRR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.19–1.92). Our findings suggest that under-5 diarrheal disease burden in Nepal ismore »significantly influenced by ENSO and changes in seasonal monsoon dynamics. Since both ENSO phases and monsoon can be predicted with considerably longer lead time compared to weather, our findings will pave the way for the development of more effective early warning systems for climate sensitive infectious diseases.

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2. Indian Ocean Dipole leads to Atlantic Niño

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26223-w  

   Zhang, Lei ; Han, Weiqing ( October 2021 , Nature Communications)

   Atlantic Niño is the Atlantic equivalent of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and it has prominent impacts on regional and global climate. Existing studies suggest that the Atlantic Niño may arise from local atmosphere-ocean interaction and is sometimes triggered by the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), with overall weak ENSO contribution. By analyzing observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments, here we show that the Atlantic Niño can be induced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We find that the enhanced rainfall in the western tropical Indian Ocean during positive IOD weakens the easterly trade winds over the tropical Atlantic, causing warm anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic basin and therefore triggering the Atlantic Niño. Our finding suggests that the cross-basin impact from the tropical Indian Ocean plays a more important role in affecting interannual climate variability than previously thought.
3. Near-Surface Salinity Reveals the Oceanic Sources of Moisture for Australian Precipitation Through Atmospheric Moisture Transport

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0579.1  

   Rathore, Saurabh ; Bindoff, Nathaniel L. ; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. ; Phillips, Helen E. ; Feng, Ming ( May 2020 , Journal of Climate)

   The long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on inter-seasonal to inter-annual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Niño Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean Dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies towards Australia. During co-occurring La Niña and negative-IOD events, salty anomalies around the maritime continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, there is the moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia and results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence andmore »SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean-atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g. 2010-11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.« less
4. Teleconnection of Regional Drought to ENSO, PDO, and AMO: Southern Florida and the Everglades

   https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10060295  

   Abiy, Anteneh Z. ; Melesse, Assefa M. ; Abtew, Wossenu ( June 2019 , Atmosphere)

   Drought variability is associated with global oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections driven by, among others, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climate teleconnections with a region’s rainfall, with drought and flooding implications, should be part of short- and long-term water management planning and operations. In this study, the link between drought and climatic drivers was assessed by using historical data from 110 years of regional rainfall in southern Florida and the Everglades. The objective was to evaluate historical drought and its link with global oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) assesses regional historical drought in 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 60-month periods. Each of the SPIs was used to analyze the association of different magnitudes of drought with ENSO, AMO, and PDO. Historical drought evaluated in different time windows indicated that there is a wet and dry cycle in the regional hydrology, where the area is currently in the wet phase of the fluctuation since 1995 with some drought years in between. Regional historical rainfall anomaly and drought index relationships with each driver and combination of drivers were statistically evaluated. The impact of ENSO fluctuation is limitedmore »to short-period rainfall variability, whereas long-period influence is from AMO and PDO.« less
5. Pan American interactions of Amazon precipitation, streamflow, and tree growth extremes

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ababc6  

   Stahle, D. W. ; Torbenson, M. C. A. ; Howard, I. M. ; Granato-Souza, D. ; Barbosa, A. C. ; Feng, S. ; Schöngart, J. ; Lopez, L. ; Villalba, R. ; Villanueva, J. ; et al ( October 2020 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Rainfall and river levels in the Amazon are associated with significant precipitation anomalies of opposite sign in temperate North and South America, which is the dominant mode of precipitation variability in the Americas that often arises during extremes of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This co-variability of precipitation extremes across the Americas is imprinted on tree growth and is detected when new tree-ring chronologies from the eastern equatorial Amazon are compared with hundreds of moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies in mid-latitude North and South America from 1759 to 2016. Pan-American co-variability exists even though the seasonality of precipitation and tree growth only partially overlaps between the Amazon and mid-latitudes because ENSO forcing of climate can persist for multiple seasons and can orchestrate a coherent response, even where the growing seasons are not fully synchronized. The tree-ring data indicate that the El Niño influence on inter-hemispheric precipitation and tree growth extremes has been strong and stable over the past 258-years, but the La Niña influence has been subject to large multi-decadal changes. These changes have implications for the dynamics and forecasting of hydroclimatic variability over the Americas and are supported by analyses of the available instrumental data and selected climate model simulations.