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Abstract AimPatterns of genetic diversity within species’ ranges can reveal important insights into effects of past climate on species’ biogeography and current population dynamics. While numerous biogeographic hypotheses have been proposed to explain patterns of genetic diversity within species’ ranges, formal comparisons and rigorous statistical tests of these hypotheses remain rare. Here, we compared seven hypotheses for their abilities to describe the geographic pattern of two metrics of genetic diversity in balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera), a northern North American tree species. LocationNorth America. TaxonBalsam poplar (Populus balsamiferaL.). MethodsWe compared seven hypotheses, representing effects of past climate and current range position, for their ability to describe the geographic pattern of expected heterozygosity and per cent polymorphic loci across 85 populations of balsam poplar. We tested each hypothesis using spatial and non‐spatial least‐squares regression to assess the importance of spatial autocorrelation on model performance. ResultsWe found that both expected heterozygosity and per cent polymorphic loci could best be explained by the current range position and genetic structure of populations within the contemporary range. Genetic diversity showed a clear gradient of being highest near the geographic and climatic range centre and lowest near range edges. Hypotheses accounting for the effects of past climate (e.g. past climatic suitability, distance from the southern edge), in contrast, had comparatively little support. Model ranks were similar among spatial and non‐spatial models, but residuals of all non‐spatial models were significantly autocorrelated, violating the assumption of independence in least‐squares regression. Main conclusionsOur work adds strong support for the “Central‐Periphery Hypothesis” as providing a predictive framework for understanding the forces structuring genetic diversity across species’ ranges, and illustrates the value of applying a robust comparative model selection framework and accounting for spatial autocorrelation when comparing biogeographic models of genetic diversity.
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Range edges in heterogeneous landscapes: Integrating geographic scale and climate complexity into range dynamics
Abstract The impacts of climate change have re‐energized interest in understanding the role of climate in setting species geographic range edges. Despite the strong focus on species' distributions in ecology and evolution, defining a species range edge is theoretically and empirically difficult. The challenge of determining a range edge and its relationship to climate is in part driven by the nested nature of geography and the multidimensionality of climate, which together generate complex patterns of both climate and biotic distributions across landscapes. Because range‐limiting processes occur in both geographic and climate space, the relationship between these two spaces plays a critical role in setting range limits. With both conceptual and empirical support, we argue that three factors—climate heterogeneity, collinearity among climate variables, and spatial scale—interact to shape the spatial structure of range edges along climate gradients, and we discuss several ways that these factors influence the stability of species range edges with a changing climate. We demonstrate that geographic and climate edges are often not concordant across species ranges. Furthermore, high climate heterogeneity and low climate collinearity across landscapes increase the spectrum of possible relationships between geographic and climatic space, suggesting that geographic range edges and climatic niche limits correspond less frequently than we may expect. More empirical explorations of how the complexity of real landscapes shapes the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine species range edges will advance the development of range limit theory and its applications to biodiversity conservation in the context of changing climate.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1637686
- PAR ID:
- 10364375
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Volume:
- 26
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1354-1013
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1055-1067
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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