Previous research regarding the intraseasonal variability of the wintertime Pacific jet has employed empiri- cal orthogonal function (EOF)/principal component (PC) analysis to characterize two leading modes of variability: a zonal extension or retraction and a ;208 meridional shift of the jet exit region. These leading modes are intimately tied to the large-scale structure, sensible weather phenomena, and forecast skill in and around the vast North Pacific basin. However, variability within the wintertime Pacific jet and the relative importance of tropical and extratropical processes in driving such variability, is poorly understood. Here, a self-organizing maps (SOM) analysis is applied to 73 Northern Hemisphere cold seasons of 250-hPa zonal winds from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data to identify 12 characteristic physical jet states, some of which resemble the leading EOF Pacific jet patterns and combinations of them. Examination of teleconnection patterns such as El Nin ̃o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) provide insight into the varying nature of the 12 SOM nodes at inter- and intraseasonal time scales. These relationships suggest that the hitherto more common EOF/PC analysis of jet variability obscures important subtleties of jet structure, revealed by the SOM analy- sis, which bear on the underlying physical processes associated with Pacific jet variability as well as the nature of its down- stream impacts.
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Underestimated MJO Variability in CMIP6 Models
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of intraseasonal climate variability, having profound impacts on a wide range of weather and climate phenomena. Here, we use a wavelet‐based spectral Principal Component Analysis (wsPCA) to evaluate the skill of 20 state‐of‐the‐art CMIP6 models in capturing the magnitude and dynamics of the MJO. By construction, wsPCA has the ability to focus on desired frequencies and capture each propagative physical mode with one principal component (PC). We show that the MJO contribution to the total intraseasonal climate variability is substantially underestimated in most CMIP6 models. The joint distribution of the modulus and angular frequency of the wavelet PC series associated with MJO is used to rank models relatively to the observations through the Wasserstein distance. Using Hovmöller phase‐longitude diagrams, we also show that precipitation variability associated with MJO is underestimated in most CMIP6 models for the Amazonia, Southwest Africa, and Maritime Continent.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10443953
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Previous research regarding the intraseasonal variability of the wintertime Pacific jet has employed empiri- cal orthogonal function (EOF)/principal component (PC) analysis to characterize two leading modes of variability: a zonal extension or retraction and a ;208 meridional shift of the jet exit region. These leading modes are intimately tied to the large-scale structure, sensible weather phenomena, and forecast skill in and around the vast North Pacific basin. However, variability within the wintertime Pacific jet and the relative importance of tropical and extratropical processes in driving such variability, is poorly understood. Here, a self-organizing maps (SOM) analysis is applied to 73 Northern Hemisphere cold seasons of 250-hPa zonal winds from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data to identify 12 characteristic physical jet states, some of which resemble the leading EOF Pacific jet patterns and combinations of them. Examination of teleconnection patterns such as El Nin ̃o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) provide insight into the varying nature of the 12 SOM nodes at inter- and intraseasonal time scales. These relationships suggest that the hitherto more common EOF/PC analysis of jet variability obscures important subtleties of jet structure, revealed by the SOM analy- sis, which bear on the underlying physical processes associated with Pacific jet variability as well as the nature of its down- stream impacts.more » « less
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