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1. Modeling State Firearm Law Adoption Using Temporal Network Models

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0009.12677  

   CLARK, DUNCAN A. ; MACINKO, JAMES ; PORFIRI, MAURIZIO ( October 2023 , The Milbank Quarterly)

   Promoting healthy public policies is a national priority, but state policy adoption is driven by a complex set of internal and external factors.

   This study employs new social network methods to identify underlying connections among states and to predict the likelihood of new firearm‐related policy adoption given changes to this interstate network.

   This approach could be used to assess the likelihood that a given state will adopt a specific new firearm‐related law and to identify points of influence that could either inhibit or promote wider diffusion of specific laws.

   US states are largely responsible for the regulation of firearms within their borders. Each state has developed a different legal environment with regard to firearms based on different values and beliefs of citizens, legislators, governors, and other stakeholders. Predicting the types of firearm laws that states may adopt is therefore challenging.

   We propose a parsimonious model for this complex process and provide credible predictions of state firearm laws by estimating the likelihood they will be passed in the future. We employ a temporal exponential‐family random graph model to capture the bipartite state law–state network data over time, allowing for complex interdependencies and their temporal evolution. Using data on all state firearm laws over the period 1979–2020, we estimate these models’ parameters while controlling for factors associated with firearm law adoption, including internal and external state characteristics. Predictions of future firearm law passage are then calculated based on a number of scenarios to assess the effects of a given type of firearm law being passed in the future by a given state.

   Results show that a set of internal state factors are important predictors of firearm law adoption, but the actions of neighboring states may be just as important. Analysis of scenarios provide insights into the mechanics of how adoption of laws by specific states (or groups of states) may perturb the rest of the network structure and alter the likelihood that new laws would become more (or less) likely to continue to diffuse to other states.

   The methods used here outperform standard approaches for policy diffusion studies and afford predictions that are superior to those of an ensemble of machine learning tools. The proposed framework could have applications for the study of policy diffusion in other domains.

    

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2. Plant regulatory lists in the United States are reactive and inconsistent

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13934  

   Beaury, Evelyn M. ; Fusco, Emily J. ; Allen, Jenica M. ; Bradley, Bethany A. ( June 2021 , Journal of Applied Ecology)

   Global invasive species introductions are rising, necessitating coordinated regulatory strategies within and across national borders. Although states and nations address their unique priorities using plant regulations, these regulations are most likely to reduce invasive plant introduction and spread if they are consistently enacted across political borders and proactively restrict spread early in the invasion process. Further, a unified regulatory landscape is particularly important given the imminent range infilling and large‐scale climate‐driven range shifts of invasive species.

   In the United States, federal and state regulations restrict the introduction and spread of several hundred invasive and noxious plant taxa in an effort to reduce their negative impacts. Using plant regulations for the lower 48 United States, we assessed consistency among regulated taxa based on similarities in adjacent states’ regulatory lists. We assessed proactivity by comparing regulatory lists to plants’ current and potential distributions given occurrence records and species distribution models under climate change.

   States regulate from 0 to 162 plant taxa, with an average of only 16.8% overlap of regulated taxa between adjacent states. Up to 137 plants may be present but unregulated in a state, and only 110 of 553 listed taxa were regulated in one or more states where they were not yet present. However, 36 states listed at least one taxon proactively (regulated but not present in the state). Of the 48 proactively listed taxa with species distribution models, we identified 41 cases (38 species in 21 states) where listing was ‘climate proactive’ (regulated, not present and where climate could be suitable for establishment by mid‐century).

   Policy implications. US plant regulatory lists were inconsistent across borders and reactive to climate change. However, most states regulate at least one plant taxa prior to its introduction, suggesting that a more proactive approach is possible under existing regulations. Coordination across borders is imperative given gaps in regional defences against invasion and projected invasive plant range shifts under climate change. We suggest that subnational, national and international governing bodies evaluate their plant regulatory lists for consistency and proactivity, as it is paramount for preventing the next wave of plant invasions.

    

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3. DACA legal services: One federal policy, different local implementation approaches

   https://doi.org/10.1111/lapo.12223  

   Gleeson, Shannon ; de Graauw, Els ( July 2023 , Law & Policy)

   In the United States, the absence of federal funding and coordination for immigration legal services often means that local resources determine immigrants' access to justice. Many of these resources go toward supporting immigrants caught in the detention and deportation system. Yet local support is also critical for implementing federal benefits programs such as the 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. In this article, we draw on 146 interviews with representatives of legal services providers and their nonprofit collaborators in three immigrant‐dense metropolitan areas—the Greater Houston Area, the New York City Metro Area, and the San Francisco Bay Area—to analyze the distinct, place‐specific service and collaboration models that have emerged over the last decade to meet demand for DACA implementation support. Specifically, we examine how local context shapes the types of actors that immigrants can turn to for immigration legal services, and how they have coordinated on the ground in distinct ways during a time of increasing uncertainty.

    

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4. Federal–local partnerships on immigration law enforcement: Are the policies effective in reducing violent victimization?

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12619  

   Baumer, Eric P. ; Xie, Min ( March 2023 , Criminology & Public Policy)

   Our understanding of how immigration enforcement impacts crime has been informed exclusively by data from police crime statistics. This study complements existing research by using longitudinal multilevel data from the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2005–2014 to simultaneously assess the impact of the three predominant immigration policies that have been implemented in local communities. The results indicate that the activation of Secure Communities and 287(g) task force agreements significantly increased violent victimization risk among Latinos, whereas they showed no evident impact on victimization risk among non‐Latino Whites and Blacks. The activation of 287(g) jail enforcement agreements and anti‐detainer policies had no significant impact on violent victimization risk during the period.

   Contrary to their stated purpose of enhancing public safety, our results show that the Secure Communities program and 287(g) task force agreements did not reduce crime, but instead eroded security in U.S. communities by increasing the likelihood that Latinos experienced violent victimization. These results support the Federal government's ending of 287(g) task force agreements and its more recent move to end the Secure Communities program. Additionally, the results of our study add to the evidence challenging claims that anti‐detainer policies pose a threat to violence risk.

    

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5. Leveraging federalism for flexible and robust management of social‐ecological systems

   https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10458  

   Sims, Charles ; Armsworth, Paul R. ; Blackwood, Julie ; Fitzpatrick, Ben ; Kling, David M. ; Lenhart, Suzanne ; Neubert, Michael ; Papeş, Monica ; Sanchirico, James ; Shea, Katriona ; et al ( February 2023 , People and Nature)

   Managing social‐ecological systems (SES) requires balancing the need to tailor actions to local heterogeneity and the need to work over large areas to accommodate the extent of SES. This balance is particularly challenging for policy since the level of government where the policy is being developed determines the extent and resolution of action.

   We make the case for a new research agenda focused on ecological federalism that seeks to address this challenge by capitalizing on the flexibility afforded by a federalist system of governance. Ecological federalism synthesizes the environmental federalism literature from law and economics with relevant ecological and biological literature to address a fundamental question: What aspects of SES should be managed by federal governments and which should be allocated to decentralized state governments?

   This new research agenda considers the bio‐geo‐physical processes that characterize state‐federal management tradeoffs for biodiversity conservation, resource management, infectious disease prevention, and invasive species control.

   Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog.

    

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