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1. Predicting Age-Related Macular Degeneration Progression with Contrastive Attention and Time-Aware LSTM

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3534678.3539163  

   Yin, Changchang ; Moroi, Sayoko E. ; Zhang, Ping ( August 2022 , Proceedings of the 28th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining)

   Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of irreversible blindness in developed countries. Identifying patients at high risk of progression to late AMD, the sight-threatening stage, is critical for clinical actions, including medical interventions and timely monitoring. Recently, deep-learning-based models have been developed and achieved superior performance for late AMD pre- diction. However, most existing methods are limited to the color fundus photography (CFP) from the last ophthalmic visit and do not include the longitudinal CFP history and AMD progression during the previous years’ visits. Patients in different AMD subphenotypes might have various speeds of progression in different stages of AMD disease. Capturing the progression information during the previous years’ visits might be useful for the prediction of AMD pro- gression. In this work, we propose a Contrastive-Attention-based Time-aware Long Short-Term Memory network (CAT-LSTM) to predict AMD progression. First, we adopt a convolutional neural network (CNN) model with a contrastive attention module (CA) to extract abnormal features from CFPs. Then we utilize a time-aware LSTM (T-LSTM) to model the patients’ history and consider the AMD progression information. The combination of disease pro- gression, genotype information, demographics, and CFP features are sent to T-LSTM. Moreover, we leverage an auto-encoder tomore »represent temporal CFP sequences as fixed-size vectors and adopt k-means to cluster them into subphenotypes. We evaluate the pro- posed model based on real-world datasets, and the results show that the proposed model could achieve 0.925 on area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for 5-year late-AMD prediction and outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by more than 3%, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed CAT-LSTM. After analyzing patient representation learned by an auto-encoder, we identify 3 novel subphenotypes of AMD patients with different characteristics and progression rates to late AMD, paving the way for improved personalization of AMD management. The code of CAT-LSTM can be found at GitHub .« less
2. DeepSOFA: A Continuous Acuity Score for Critically Ill Patients using Clinically Interpretable Deep Learning

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-38491-0  

   Shickel, Benjamin ; Loftus, Tyler J. ; Adhikari, Lasith ; Ozrazgat-Baslanti, Tezcan ; Bihorac, Azra ; Rashidi, Parisa ( February 2019 , Scientific Reports)

   Traditional methods for assessing illness severity and predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients require time-consuming, error-prone calculations using static variable thresholds. These methods do not capitalize on the emerging availability of streaming electronic health record data or capture time-sensitive individual physiological patterns, a critical task in the intensive care unit. We propose a novel acuity score framework (DeepSOFA) that leverages temporal measurements and interpretable deep learning models to assess illness severity at any point during an ICU stay. We compare DeepSOFA with SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) baseline models using the same model inputs and find that at any point during an ICU admission, DeepSOFA yields significantly more accurate predictions of in-hospital mortality. A DeepSOFA model developed in a public database and validated in a single institutional cohort had a mean AUC for the entire ICU stay of 0.90 (95% CI 0.90–0.91) compared with baseline SOFA models with mean AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.79–0.80) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.85–0.86). Deep models are well-suited to identify ICU patients in need of life-saving interventions prior to the occurrence of an unexpected adverse event and inform shared decision-making processes among patients, providers, and families regarding goals of care and optimal resourcemore »utilization.

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3. A Tensorized Multitask Deep Learning Network for Progression Prediction of Alzheimer’s Disease

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2022.810873  

   Tabarestani, Solale ; Eslami, Mohammad ; Cabrerizo, Mercedes ; Curiel, Rosie E. ; Barreto, Armando ; Rishe, Naphtali ; Vaillancourt, David ; DeKosky, Steven T. ; Loewenstein, David A. ; Duara, Ranjan ; et al ( May 2022 , Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience)

   With the advances in machine learning for the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), most studies have focused on either identifying the subject’s status through classification algorithms or on predicting their cognitive scores through regression methods, neglecting the potential association between these two tasks. Motivated by the need to enhance the prospects for early diagnosis along with the ability to predict future disease states, this study proposes a deep neural network based on modality fusion, kernelization, and tensorization that perform multiclass classification and longitudinal regression simultaneously within a unified multitask framework. This relationship between multiclass classification and longitudinal regression is found to boost the efficacy of the final model in dealing with both tasks. Different multimodality scenarios are investigated, and complementary aspects of the multimodal features are exploited to simultaneously delineate the subject’s label and predict related cognitive scores at future timepoints using baseline data. The main intent in this multitask framework is to consolidate the highest accuracy possible in terms of precision, sensitivity, F1 score, and area under the curve (AUC) in the multiclass classification task while maintaining the highest similarity in the MMSE score as measured through the correlation coefficient and the RMSE for all time points under themore »prediction task, with both tasks, run simultaneously under the same set of hyperparameters. The overall accuracy for multiclass classification of the proposed KTMnet method is 66.85 ± 3.77. The prediction results show an average RMSE of 2.32 ± 0.52 and a correlation of 0.71 ± 5.98 for predicting MMSE throughout the time points. These results are compared to state-of-the-art techniques reported in the literature. A discovery from the multitasking of this consolidated machine learning framework is that a set of hyperparameters that optimize the prediction results may not necessarily be the same as those that would optimize the multiclass classification. In other words, there is a breakpoint beyond which enhancing further the results of one process could lead to the downgrading in accuracy for the other.« less
4. Siamese neural networks for continuous disease severity evaluation and change detection in medical imaging

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-020-0255-1  

   Li, Matthew D. ; Chang, Ken ; Bearce, Ben ; Chang, Connie Y. ; Huang, Ambrose J. ; Campbell, J. Peter ; Brown, James M. ; Singh, Praveer ; Hoebel, Katharina V. ; Erdoğmuş, Deniz ; et al ( March 2020 , npj Digital Medicine)

   Using medical images to evaluate disease severity and change over time is a routine and important task in clinical decision making. Grading systems are often used, but are unreliable as domain experts disagree on disease severity category thresholds. These discrete categories also do not reflect the underlying continuous spectrum of disease severity. To address these issues, we developed a convolutional Siamese neural network approach to evaluate disease severity at single time points and change between longitudinal patient visits on a continuous spectrum. We demonstrate this in two medical imaging domains: retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in retinal photographs and osteoarthritis in knee radiographs. Our patient cohorts consist of 4861 images from 870 patients in the Imaging and Informatics in Retinopathy of Prematurity (i-ROP) cohort study and 10,012 images from 3021 patients in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST), both of which feature longitudinal imaging data. Multiple expert clinician raters ranked 100 retinal images and 100 knee radiographs from excluded test sets for severity of ROP and osteoarthritis, respectively. The Siamese neural network output for each image in comparison to a pool of normal reference images correlates with disease severity rank (ρ = 0.87 for ROP andρ = 0.89 for osteoarthritis), both within and between themore »clinical grading categories. Thus, this output can represent the continuous spectrum of disease severity at any single time point. The difference in these outputs can be used to show change over time. Alternatively, paired images from the same patient at two time points can be directly compared using the Siamese neural network, resulting in an additional continuous measure of change between images. Importantly, our approach does not require manual localization of the pathology of interest and requires only a binary label for training (same versus different). The location of disease and site of change detected by the algorithm can be visualized using an occlusion sensitivity map-based approach. For a longitudinal binary change detection task, our Siamese neural networks achieve test set receiving operator characteristic area under the curves (AUCs) of up to 0.90 in evaluating ROP or knee osteoarthritis change, depending on the change detection strategy. The overall performance on this binary task is similar compared to a conventional convolutional deep-neural network trained for multi-class classification. Our results demonstrate that convolutional Siamese neural networks can be a powerful tool for evaluating the continuous spectrum of disease severity and change in medical imaging.

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5. Composite quantitative knee structure metrics predict the development of accelerated knee osteoarthritis: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12891-020-03338-7  

   Harkey, Matthew S. ; Davis, Julie E. ; Price, Lori Lyn ; Ward, Robert J. ; MacKay, James W. ; Eaton, Charles B. ; Lo, Grace H. ; Barbe, Mary F. ; Zhang, Ming ; Pang, Jincheng ; et al ( December 2020 , BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders)

   Abstract Background We aimed to determine if composite structural measures of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) progression on magnetic resonance (MR) imaging can predict the radiographic onset of accelerated knee osteoarthritis. Methods We used data from a nested case-control study among participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative without radiographic KOA at baseline. Participants were separated into three groups based on radiographic disease progression over 4 years: 1) accelerated (Kellgren-Lawrence grades [KL] 0/1 to 3/4), 2) typical (increase in KL, excluding accelerated osteoarthritis), or 3) no KOA (no change in KL). We assessed tibiofemoral cartilage damage (four regions: medial/lateral tibia/femur), bone marrow lesion (BML) volume (four regions: medial/lateral tibia/femur), and whole knee effusion-synovitis volume on 3 T MR images with semi-automated programs. We calculated two MR-based composite scores. Cumulative damage was the sum of standardized cartilage damage. Disease activity was the sum of standardized volumes of effusion-synovitis and BMLs. We focused on annual images from 2 years before to 2 years after radiographic onset (or a matched time for those without knee osteoarthritis). To determine between group differences in the composite metrics at all time points, we used generalized linear mixed models with group (3 levels) and time (up to 5 levels). For our prognostic analysis,more »we used multinomial logistic regression models to determine if one-year worsening in each composite metric change associated with future accelerated knee osteoarthritis (odds ratios [OR] based on units of 1 standard deviation of change). Results Prior to disease onset, the accelerated KOA group had greater average disease activity compared to the typical and no KOA groups and this persisted up to 2 years after disease onset. During a pre-radiographic disease period, the odds of developing accelerated KOA were greater in people with worsening disease activity [versus typical KOA OR (95% confidence interval [CI]): 1.58 (1.08 to 2.33); versus no KOA: 2.39 (1.55 to 3.71)] or cumulative damage [versus typical KOA: 1.69 (1.14 to 2.51); versus no KOA: 2.11 (1.41 to 3.16)]. Conclusions MR-based disease activity and cumulative damage metrics may be prognostic markers to help identify people at risk for accelerated onset and progression of knee osteoarthritis.« less