Climate change is expected to increase drought intensity and frequency, which are commonly predicted will threaten the survival of forests. Most forest die‐off projections assume that recent tree mortality will not alter die‐off severity during subsequent droughts. We tested this assumption by comparing die‐off in semi‐arid conifer forest stands in California that were exposed to a single drought in 2012–2015 (“
Tree die-off, driven by extreme drought and exacerbated by a warming climate, is occurring rapidly across every wooded continent—threatening carbon sinks and other ecosystem services provided by forests and woodlands. Forecasting the spatial patterns of tree die-off in response to drought is a priority for the management and conservation of forested ecosystems under projected future hotter and drier climates. Several thresholds derived from drought-metrics have been proposed to predict mortality of
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10368616
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. 074031
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract 2nd Drought Only ”) with forest stands that experienced drought in both 1999–2002 and 2012–2015 (“Both Droughts ”). We quantified die‐off severity as a reduction in the satellite observed Normalized Difference Moisture Index, and cumulative moisture deficit as negative 4‐year Precipitation minus Evapotranspiration (4‐year Pr‐ET overdraft). Here we show that recent tree morality reduces die‐off severity in semi‐arid conifer forests exposed to subsequent drought. Stands in the2nd Drought Only sample experienced severe die‐off associated with extreme 4‐year Pr‐ET overdraft in 2012–2015. Stands in theBoth Droughts sample experienced severe die‐off and 4‐year Pr‐ET overdraft in 1999–2002, but comparatively little 2012–2015 die‐off despite continued 4‐year Pr‐ET overdraft. We interpret this as a dampening effect, where prior tree mortality reduces forest die‐off severity during subsequent drought exposure. As forests continue to experience disturbances linked to climate change, dampening effects will impose a transient, and perhaps long‐term, constraint on the impact of repeated drought. -
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Abstract Climate warming in recent decades has negatively impacted forest health in the western United States. Here, we report on potential early warning signals (EWS) for drought‐related mortality derived from measurements of tree‐ring growth (ring width index; RWI) and carbon isotope discrimination (∆13C), primarily focused on ponderosa pine (
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Summary Determining physiological mechanisms and thresholds for climate‐driven tree die‐off could help improve global predictions of future terrestrial carbon sinks. We directly tested for the lethal threshold in hydraulic failure – an inability to move water due to drought‐induced xylem embolism – in a pine sapling experiment.
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Our direct measurement of native conductivity, while monitoring the same individuals for survival or mortality, quantifies a continuous probability of mortality risk from hydraulic failure. Predicting tree die‐off events and understanding the mechanism involved requires knowledge not only of when trees are dead, but when they begin dying – having passed the point of no return.
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Abstract Climate change‐triggered forest die‐off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of stand‐level mortality. Here, we use an extensive tree‐ring dataset collected at ~3000 permanent forest inventory plots, spanning 13 dominant species across the US Mountain West, where forests have experienced strong drought and extensive die‐off has been observed in the past two decades, to test the hypothesis that tree growth resilience to drought can explain and improve predictions of observed stand‐level mortality. We found substantial increases in growth variability and temporal autocorrelation as well declining drought resistance and resilience for a number of species over the second half of the 20th century. Declining resilience and low tree growth were strongly associated with cross‐ and within‐species patterns of mortality. Resilience metrics had similar explicative power compared to climate and stand structure, but the covariance structure among predictors implied that the effect of tree resilience on mortality could partially be explained by stand and climate variables. We conclude that tree growth resilience offers highly valuable insights on tree physiology by integrating the effect of stressors on forest mortality but may have only moderate potential to improve large‐scale projections of forest die‐off under climate change.
